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Title: Distinct persistence barriers in two types of ENSO: PERSISTENCE BARRIERS OF TWO ENSO TYPES
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Page Range / eLocation ID:
10,973 to 10,979
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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  1. Abstract

    This paper investigates potential factors that control the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring Persistence Barrier (SPB) strength in two different ENSO regimes and apply it to explain the ENSO SPB strength modulation after the 21st century. In a damped, noise‐driven model, the theoretical solution of SPB strength illustrates that a weaker ENSO growth rate strengthens SPB. In the self‐sustained regime, as in the Cane‐Zebiak model (chaotic system), the strengthened thermodynamic damping and weakened thermocline positive feedback lead to a more negative ENSO growth rate and, in turn, a stronger SPB. Therefore, in both ENSO regimes, a weaker ENSO growth rate intensifies the SPB. The application of the theory to the real world suggests that a more negative ENSO growth rate, corresponding to a more damped feedback system, is responsible for the stronger SPB in recent decades than in 1980–2000.

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