Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) is a technique that can efficiently identify the beneficial/detrimental impacts of every observation in ensemble‐based data assimilation (DA). While EFSO has been successfully employed on atmospheric DA, it has never been applied to ocean or coupled DA due to the lack of a suitable error norm for oceanic variables. This study introduces a new density‐based error norm incorporating sea temperature and salinity forecast errors, making EFSO applicable to ocean DA for the first time. We implemented the oceanic EFSO on the CFSv2‐LETKF and investigated the impact of ocean observations under a weakly coupled DA framework. By removing the detrimental ocean observations detected by EFSO, the CFSv2 forecasts were significantly improved, showing the validation of impact estimation and the great potential of EFSO to be extended as a data selection criterion.
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract Parasites are ubiquitous, yet their effects on hosts are difficult to quantify and generalize across ecosystems. One promising metric of parasitic impact uses the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) to calculate energy flux, an estimate of energy lost to parasites. We investigated the feasibility of using metabolic scaling rules to compare the energetic burden of parasitism among individuals. Specifically, we found substantial sensitivity of energy flux estimates to input parameters used in the MTE equation when using available data from a model host–parasite system (
Gasterosteus aculeatus andSchistocephalus solidus ). Using literature values, size data from parasitized wild fish, and a respirometry experiment, we estimate that a singleS. solidus tapeworm may extract up to 32% of its stickleback host's baseline metabolic energy requirement, and that parasites in multiple infections may collectively extract up to 46%. The amount of energy siphoned from stickleback to tapeworms is large but did not instigate an increase in respiration rate in the current study. This emphasizes the importance of future work focusing on how parasites influence ecosystem energetics. The approach of using the MTE to calculate energy flux provides great promise as a quantitative foundation for such estimates and provides a more concrete metric of parasite impact on hosts than parasite abundance alone.
