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1. Sensitivity of sand lance to shifting prey and hydrography indicates forthcoming change to the northeast US shelf forage fish complex

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa251  

   Suca, Justin J ; Wiley, David N ; Silva, Tammy L ; Robuck, Anna R ; Richardson, David E ; Glancy, Sarah G ; Clancey, Emily ; Giandonato, Teresa ; Solow, Andrew R ; Thompson, Michael A ; et al ( January 2021 , ICES Journal of Marine Science)

   Ojaveer, Henn (Ed.)

   Abstract Northern sand lance (Ammodytes dubius) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) represent the dominant lipid-rich forage fish species throughout the Northeast US shelf and are critical prey for numerous top predators. However, unlike Atlantic herring, there is little research on sand lance or information about drivers of their abundance. We use intra-annual measurements of sand lance diet, growth, and condition to explain annual variability in sand lance abundance on the Northeast US Shelf. Our observations indicate that northern sand lance feed, grow, and accumulate lipids in the late winter through summer, predominantly consuming the copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Sand lance then cease feeding, utilize lipids, and begin gonad development in the fall. We show that the abundance of C. finmarchicus influences sand lance parental condition and recruitment. Atlantic herring can mute this effect through intra-guild predation. Hydrography further impacts sand lance abundance as increases in warm slope water decrease overwinter survival of reproductive adults. The predicted changes to these drivers indicate that sand lance will no longer be able to fill the role of lipid-rich forage during times of low Atlantic herring abundance—changing the Northeast US shelf forage fish complex by the end of the century. 

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2. Evaluating impacts of forage fish abundance on marine predators

   https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13709  

   Free, Christopher M. ; Jensen, Olaf P. ; Hilborn, Ray ( October 2021 , Conservation Biology)
3. Environmental drivers and trends in forage fish occupancy of the Northeast US shelf

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab214  

   Suca, Justin J ; Deroba, Jonathan J ; Richardson, David E ; Ji, Rubao ; Llopiz, Joel K ( November 2021 , ICES Journal of Marine Science)

   Secor, David (Ed.)

   Abstract The Northeast US shelf ecosystem is undergoing unprecedented changes due to long-term warming trends and shifts in regional hydrography leading to changes in community composition. However, it remains uncertain how shelf occupancy by the region's dominant, offshore small pelagic fishes, also known as forage fishes, has changed throughout the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Here, we use species distribution models to estimate the change in shelf occupancy, mean weighted latitude, and mean weighted depth of six forage fishes on the Northeast US shelf, and whether those trends were linked to coincident hydrographic conditions. Our results suggest that observed shelf occupancy is increasing or unchanging for most species in both spring and fall, linked both to gear shifts and increasing bottom temperature and salinity. Exceptions include decreases to observed shelf occupancy by sand lance and decreases to Atlantic herring's inferred habitat suitability in the fall. Our work shows that changes in shelf occupancy and inferred habitat suitability have varying coherence, indicating complex mechanisms behind observed shelf occupancy for many species. Future work and management can use these results to better isolate the aspects of forage fish life histories that are important for determining their occupancy of the Northeast US shelf. 

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4. Direct and ancillary benefits of ecosystem‐based fisheries management in forage fish fisheries

   https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2421  

   Sanchirico, James N. ; Essington, Timothy E. ( October 2021 , Ecological Applications)
5. Diel and tidal pCO2 × O2 fluctuations provide physiological refuge to early life stages of a coastal forage fish

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53930-8  

   Cross, Emma L. ; Murray, Christopher S. ; Baumann, Hannes ( December 2019 , Scientific Reports)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Coastal ecosystems experience substantial natural fluctuations in p CO 2 and dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions on diel, tidal, seasonal and interannual timescales. Rising carbon dioxide emissions and anthropogenic nutrient input are expected to increase these p CO 2 and DO cycles in severity and duration of acidification and hypoxia. How coastal marine organisms respond to natural p CO 2  × DO variability and future climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess the impact of static and cycling p CO 2  × DO conditions of various magnitudes and frequencies on early life survival and growth of an important coastal forage fish, Menidia menidia . Static low DO conditions severely decreased embryo survival, larval survival, time to 50% hatch, size at hatch and post-larval growth rates. Static elevated p CO 2 did not affect most response traits, however, a synergistic negative effect did occur on embryo survival under hypoxic conditions (3.0 mg L −1 ). Cycling p CO 2  × DO, however, reduced these negative effects of static conditions on all response traits with the magnitude of fluctuations influencing the extent of this reduction. This indicates that fluctuations in p CO 2 and DO may benefit coastal organisms by providing periodic physiological refuge from stressful conditions, which could promote species adaptability to climate change. 

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