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Abstract Understanding how populations respond to spatially heterogeneous habitat disturbance is as critical to conservation as it is challenging. Here, we present a new, free, and open‐source metapopulation model: Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (Dy
HDER ), which incorporates subpopulation habitat condition and connectivity into a population viability analysis framework. Modeling temporally dynamic and spatially explicit habitat disturbance of varying magnitude and duration is accomplished through the use of habitat time‐series data and a mechanistic approach to adjusting subpopulation vital rates. Additionally, DyHDER uses a probabilistic dispersal model driven by site‐specific habitat suitability, density dependence, and directionally dependent connectivity. In the first application of DyHDER , we explore how fragmentation and projected climate change are predicted to impact a well‐studied Bonneville cutthroat trout metapopulation in the Logan River (Utah,USA ). The DyHDER model predicts which subpopulations are most susceptible to disturbance, as well as the potential interactions between stressors. Further, the model predicts how populations may be expected to redistribute following disturbance. This information is valuable to conservationists and managers faced with protecting populations of conservation concern across landscapes undergoing changing disturbance regimes. The DyHDER model provides a valuable and generalizable new tool to explore metapopulation resilience to spatially and temporally dynamic stressors for a diverse range of taxa and ecosystems. -
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Abstract This paper reports our simulations of the volume emission rate of the O(1
D ) redline nightglow perturbed by waves traveling across the thermosphere at around 250 km altitude. Waves perturb the electronic and neutral background densities and temperatures in the region and modify the O(1D ) layer intensity as it is captured by ground‐based nightglow instruments. The changes in the integrated volume emission rate are calculated for various vertical wavelengths of the perturbations. We demonstrate that, as the solar activity intensifies, the vertical scales of most likely observable TID waves become larger. For high solar activity, we demonstrate that only waves presenting vertical wavelengths larger than 360 km are likely to be observed. The variation of the range of likely observable vertical wavelengths with the solar cycle offers a plausible explanation for the low occurrence rate of TID in measurements of the redline nightglow during high solar activity periods. We have compared our results with those of Negale et al. (2018;https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JA024876 ) and Paulino et al (2018;https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-265-2018 ) to verify that observed vertical wavelengths distribute around 140–210 km, in good correspondence with our predicted threshold wavelength160 km for very low solar cycle period. -
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Abstract One objective of eco‐evolutionary dynamics is to understand how the interplay between ecology and evolution on contemporary timescales contributes to the maintenance of biodiversity. Disturbance is an ecological process that can alter species diversity through both ecological and evolutionary effects on colonization and extinction dynamics. While analogous mechanisms likely operate among genotypes within a population, empirical evidence demonstrating the relationship between disturbance and genotypic diversity remains limited. We experimentally tested how disturbance altered the colonization (gain) and extinction (loss) of genets within a population of the marine angiosperm
Zostera marina (eelgrass). In a 2‐year field experiment conducted in northern California, we mimicked grazing disturbance by migratory geese by clipping leaves at varying frequencies during the winter months. Surprisingly, we found the greatest rates of new colonization in the absence of disturbance and that clipping had negligible effects on extinction. We hypothesize that genet extinction was not driven by selective mortality from clipping or from any stochastic loss resulting from the reduced shoot densities in clipped plots. We also hypothesize that increased flowering effort and facilitation within and among clones drove the increased colonization of new genets in the undisturbed treatment. This balance between colonization and extinction resulted in a negative relationship between clipping frequency and net changes in genotypic richness. We interpret our results in light of prior work showing that genotypic diversity increased resistance to grazing disturbance. We suggest that both directions of a feedback between disturbance and diversity occur in this system with consequences for the maintenance of eelgrass genotypic diversity.
