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Title: Simultaneous model predictive control and moving horizon estimation for blood glucose regulation in Type 1 diabetes: Simultaneous model predictive control and moving horizon estimation for blood glucose regulation in Type 1 diabetes
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Optimal Control Applications and Methods
Page Range / eLocation ID:
904 to 918
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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  1. The objective of this paper is to develop an open loop insulin input profile over a span of 24 hours which makes the glucose trajectory of a Type 1 diabetic person track a target glucose trajectory. The Bergman minimal model is chosen to represent the glucose-insulin dynamics which is shown to be differentially flat. An optimal control problem is posed by parameterizing the differentially flat output of the Bergman model using Fourier series, to result in an input profile that can be repeatedly administered every day. The solution to the optimization problem is then shown to present acceptable performance in terms of tracking and adhering to imposed constraints. 
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  2. Abstract

    Continuous monitoring of blood glucose (BG) levels is a key aspect of diabetes management. Patients with Type-1 diabetes (T1D) require an effective tool to monitor these levels in order to make appropriate decisions regarding insulin administration and food intake to keep BG levels in target range. Effectively and accurately predicting future BG levels at multi-time steps ahead benefits a patient with diabetes by helping them decrease the risks of extremes in BG including hypo- and hyperglycemia. In this study, we present a novel multi-component deep learning model that predicts the BG levels in a multi-step look ahead fashion. The model is evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively on actual blood glucose data for 97 patients. For the prediction horizon (PH) of 30 mins, the average values forroot mean squared error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), andnormalized mean squared error(NRMSE) are$$23.22 \pm 6.39$$23.22±6.39mg/dL, 16.77 ± 4.87 mg/dL,$$12.84 \pm 3.68$$12.84±3.68and$$0.08 \pm 0.01$$0.08±0.01respectively. When Clarke and Parkes error grid analyses were performed comparing predicted BG with actual BG, the results showed average percentage of points in Zone A of$$80.17 \pm 9.20$$80.17±9.20and$$84.81 \pm 6.11,$$84.81±6.11,respectively. We offer this tool as a mechanism to enhance the predictive capabilities of algorithms for patients with T1D.

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  3. null (Ed.)

    To determine the benefit of starting continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in adult-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) with regard to longer-term glucose control and serious clinical events.


    A retrospective observational cohort study within the Veterans Affairs Health Care System was used to compare glucose control and hypoglycemia- or hyperglycemia-related admission to an emergency room or hospital and all-cause hospitalization between propensity score overlap weighted initiators of CGM and nonusers over 12 months.


    CGM users receiving insulin (n = 5,015 with T1D and n = 15,706 with T2D) and similar numbers of nonusers were identified from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020. Declines in HbA1c were significantly greater in CGM users with T1D (−0.26%; 95% CI −0.33, −0.19%) and T2D (−0.35%; 95% CI −0.40, −0.31%) than in nonusers at 12 months. Percentages of patients achieving HbA1c <8 and <9% after 12 months were greater in CGM users. In T1D, CGM initiation was associated with significantly reduced risk of hypoglycemia (hazard ratio [HR] 0.69; 95% CI 0.48, 0.98) and all-cause hospitalization (HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.63, 0.90). In patients with T2D, there was a reduction in risk of hyperglycemia in CGM users (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77, 0.99) and all-cause hospitalization (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.83, 0.97). Several subgroups (based on baseline age, HbA1c, hypoglycemic risk, or follow-up CGM use) had even greater responses.


    In a large national cohort, initiation of CGM was associated with sustained improvement in HbA1c in patients with later-onset T1D and patients with T2D using insulin. This was accompanied by a clear pattern of reduced risk of admission to an emergency room or hospital for hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia and of all-cause hospitalization.

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