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This paper studies the prediction task of tensor-on-tensor regression in which both covariates and responses are multi-dimensional arrays (a.k.a., tensors) across time with arbitrary tensor order and data dimension. Existing methods either focused on linear models without accounting for possibly nonlinear relationships between covariates and responses, or directly employed black-box deep learning algorithms that failed to utilize the inherent tensor structure. In this work, we propose a Factor Augmented Tensor-on-Tensor Neural Network (FATTNN) that integrates tensor factor models into deep neural networks. We begin with summarizing and extracting useful predictive information (represented by the ``factor tensor'') from the complex structured tensor covariates, and then proceed with the prediction task using the estimated factor tensor as input of a temporal convolutional neural network. The proposed methods effectively handle nonlinearity between complex data structures, and improve over traditional statistical models and conventional deep learning approaches in both prediction accuracy and computational cost. By leveraging tensor factor models, our proposed methods exploit the underlying latent factor structure to enhance the prediction, and in the meantime, drastically reduce the data dimensionality that speeds up the computation. The empirical performances of our proposed methods are demonstrated via simulation studies and real-world applications to three public datasets. Numerical results show that our proposed algorithms achieve substantial increases in prediction accuracy and significant reductions in computational time compared to benchmark methods.
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Discretized conformal prediction for efficient distribution‐free inference
In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training and test data are assumed to be exchangeable. However, these methods bear a heavy computational cost—and, to be carried out exactly, the regression algorithm would need to be fitted infinitely many times. In practice, the conformal prediction method is run by simply considering only a finite grid of finely spaced values for the response variable. This paper develops discretized conformal prediction algorithms that are guaranteed to cover the target value with the desired probability and that offer a trade‐off between computational cost and prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1654076
- PAR ID:
- 10052304
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Stat
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2049-1573
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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