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Title: An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System: Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support
NSF-PAR ID:
10055519
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley-Blackwell
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Risk Analysis
ISSN:
0272-4332
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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  1. Hurricanes are devastating natural disasters. In deciding how to respond to a hurricane, in particular whether and when to evacuate, a decision-maker must weigh often highly uncertain and contradic- tory information about the future path and intensity of the storm. To effectively plan to help people during a hurricane, it is crucial to be able to predict and understand this evacuation decision. To this end, we propose a computational model of human sequential decision-making in response to a hurricane based on a Partial Ob- servable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) that models concerns, uncertain beliefs about the hurricane, and future information. We evaluate the model in two ways. First, hurricane data from 2018 was used to evaluate the model’s predictive ability on real data. Second, a simulation study was conducted to qualitatively evaluate the sequential aspect of the model to illustrate the role that the acquisition of future, more accurate information can play on cur- rent decision-making. The evaluation with 2018 hurricane season data shows that our proposed features are significant predictors and the model can predict the data well, within and across distinct hurricane datasets. The simulation results show that, across dif- ferent setups, our model generates predictions on the sequential decisions making aspect that align with expectations qualitatively and suggests the importance of modeling information. 
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  2. Abstract

    During peak disease transmission in 2021, the compounding threat posed by the pandemic and hurricane season required coastal states to understand evacuation behaviors during a major hurricane to inform the planning process. While research relating to hurricane evacuation behavior and perceptions of risk has increased since the start of the pandemic, there is minimal understanding of how perceptions have changed now the COVID-19 vaccine is available. A total of 1075 individuals across seven U.S. coastal states participated in a study on evacuation intentions postvaccine availability. Findings revealed that most survey participants (50.9%) preferred to stay home if a major hurricane threatened their area, and only 3.9% would evacuate to a public shelter. Approximately half (56.2%) of individuals viewed the risk of being in a shelter as more dangerous than enduring hurricane hazards. When considering shelter use, nearly half of respondents (49.4%) stated they would evacuate to a shelter before the pandemic; now, only one-third (34.3%) would consider evacuating to a shelter during the pandemic. Statistically significant findings include the relationship between those who lived in evacuation zones A or B (25.5%) and the choice to shelter in place at home (40.5%) or evacuate to a hotel (36.9%). There was a statistically significant relationship between the level of education and choosing to evacuate to a hotel. Additionally, the influence of pet ownership on evacuation decision-making was found to be statistically significant. Officials can use the results of this study to strengthen community preparedness and planning strategies across diverse populations.

     
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