ABSTRACT Nature‐based climate solutions in Earth's forests could strengthen the land carbon sink and contribute to climate mitigation, but must adequately account for climate risks to the durability of carbon storage. Forest carbon offset protocols use a “buffer pool” to insure against disturbance risks that may compromise durability. However, the extent to which current buffer pool tools and allocations align with current scientific data or models is not well understood. Here, we use a tropical forest stand biomass model and an extensive set of long‐term tropical forest plots to test whether current buffer pool contributions are adequate to insure against observed disturbance regimes. We find that forest age and disturbance regime both influence necessary buffer pool sizes. In the majority of disturbance scenarios in a major carbon registry buffer pool tool, current buffer pools are substantially smaller than required by carbon cycle science. Buffer pool tools and estimates urgently need to be updated to accurately assess disturbance regimes and climate change impact on disturbances based on rigorous, open scientific datasets for nature‐based climate solutions to succeed.
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Forest aging, disturbance and the carbon cycle
Large areas of forestland in temperate North America, as well as in other parts of the world, are growing older and will soon transition into mid-successional stages and exceed 100 years in age. These ecosystems have been important regional carbon sinks as they recovered from prior anthropogenic and natural disturbance but their future capacity to store carbon is in question. Ecosystem development theory predicts a steady decline in carbon storage as forests age, but newly available, direct measurements of forest net CO2 exchange challenge that prediction. In temperate deciduous forests, where moderate severity disturbance regimes now often prevail, there is little evidence for any marked decline in carbon storage during mid-succession. Rather, an increase in physical and biological complexity under these disturbance regimes may drive increases in resource-use efficiency and resource availability that help maintain significant carbon storage in these forests well past the century mark. Conservation of aging and old-growth deciduous forests may therefore sustain the terrestrial carbon sink while providing other goods and services provided by these biologically and structurally complex ecosystems.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1655095
- PAR ID:
- 10059460
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- New Phytologist
- ISSN:
- 0028-646X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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