skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.016 Summary: Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores (EScores) for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators. Primary emergence indicators identify “frontier” terms based on their EScores. We then tally organizations, countries, or authors especially active in publishing (or patenting) on high EScore topics in a target R&D domain. We can score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper illustrates EScoring for Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1645237
PAR ID:
10076502
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Technological forecasting & social change
ISSN:
0040-1625
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; (, Proceedings of PICMET '17: Technology Management for Interconnected World)
    Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify “hot topic” terms, then we use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at research frontiers in a target domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score technological fields on relative degree of emergence. We show illustrative results for example topics -- Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; (, Scientometrics)
    Developing useful intelligence on scientific and technological emergence challenges those who would manage R&D portfolios, assess research programs, or manage innovation. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition Program has explored means to detect emergence via text analyses. We have been involved in positing conceptual bases for emergence, framing candidate indicators, and devising implementations. We now present a software script to generate a family of Emergence Indicators for a topic of interest. This paper offers some background, then discusses the development of this script through iterative rounds of testing, and then offers example findings. Results point to promising and actionable intelligence for R&D decision-makers. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; (, Journal of data and information science)
    Developing useful intelligence on scientific and technological emergence challenges those who would manage R&D portfolios, assess research programs, or manage innovation. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition Program has explored means to detect emergence via text analyses. We have been involved in positing conceptual bases for emergence, framing candidate indicators, and devising implementations. We now present a software script to generate a family of Emergence Indicators for a topic of interest. This paper offers some background, then discusses the development of this script through iterative rounds of testing, and then offers example findings. Results point to promising and actionable intelligence for R&D decision-makers. 
    more » « less
  4. (, Global Tech Mining Conference)
    Presentation showing the calculation of tech emergence indicators by state for nanotechnology research 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; (, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)
    Early warning indicators based on critical slowing down have been suggested as a model-independent and low-cost tool to anticipate the (re)emergence of infectious diseases. We studied whether such indicators could reliably have anticipated the second COVID-19 wave in European countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we found that characteristic early warning indicators generally decreased rather than increased prior to the second wave. A model explains this unexpected finding as a result of transient dynamics and the multiple timescales of relaxation during a non-stationary epidemic. Particularly, if an epidemic that seems initially contained after a first wave does not fully settle to its new quasi-equilibrium prior to changing circumstances or conditions that force a second wave, then indicators will show a decreasing rather than an increasing trend as a result of the persistent transient trajectory of the first wave. Our simulations show that this lack of timescale separation was to be expected during the second European epidemic wave of COVID-19. Overall, our results emphasize that the theory of critical slowing down applies only when the external forcing of the system across a critical point is slow relative to the internal system dynamics. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email