skip to main content


Title: Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data.
Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche.We test the performance of this metric—Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)—using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1633535
NSF-PAR ID:
10077205
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological sciences
Volume:
B 285
ISSN:
1471-2954
Page Range / eLocation ID:
20181698
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Marine bivalves are important components of ecosystems and exploited by humans for food across the world, but the intrinsic vulnerability of exploited bivalve species to global changes is poorly known. Here, we expand the list of shallow-marine bivalves known to be exploited worldwide, with 720 exploited bivalve species added beyond the 81 in the United Nations FAO Production Database, and investigate their diversity, distribution and extinction vulnerability using a metric based on ecological traits and evolutionary history. The added species shift the richness hotspot of exploited species from the northeast Atlantic to the west Pacific, with 55% of bivalve families being exploited, concentrated mostly in two major clades but all major body plans. We find that exploited species tend to be larger in size, occur in shallower waters, and have larger geographic and thermal ranges—the last two traits are known to confer extinction-resistance in marine bivalves. However, exploited bivalve species in certain regions such as the tropical east Atlantic and the temperate northeast and southeast Pacific, are among those with high intrinsic vulnerability and are a large fraction of regional faunal diversity. Our results pinpoint regional faunas and specific taxa of likely concern for management and conservation.

     
    more » « less
  2. The influence of functional traits on species survivorship has been evaluated in various contexts in both modern and ancient ecosystems, but an important direction for research is to integrate datasets that include both extinct and extant taxa. This approach can provide a more reliable understanding of the effects of functional traits on macroecological and macroevolutionary dynamics. Knowledge of the links between individual traits and survivorship is crucial for developing accurate extinction risk predictive models. Here we test the impact of numerous functional traits on the survival and extinction of species through time, using bivalve and gastropod species from the rich fossil record of the western Atlantic over the last ~3 million years, along with the associated extant biota. We also compare the impact of these organismic traits on survival relative to a group level trait: geographic distribution. Analyses use a dataset of 12 functional traits including life habit, feeding behavior and basal metabolic rate (BMR), for 115 species from 36 families. Traits were observed and measured from specimens in the collections of the Paleontological Research Institution, Florida Museum of Natural History, and University of Kansas, as well as surveys of the literature and online databases such as the Neogene Marine Biota of Tropical America (NMITA). Results derived from Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) show there is a clear distinction between extinct and extant species, overall, when comparing them based on life habit, maximum body size, shell composition and BMR. Most traits showed little direct relation with survival, except BMR and associated maximum body size, supporting the Metabolic Theory of Ecology. Since many functional traits do not explain survival, their function may be mis- or over-interpreted, and traits posited to represent important organismic adaptations may not play a prominent role in long-term species survival, especially during the major climate changes over the last ~ 3 million years. Some traits do show significant interactions, and these were more fully explored using additional multivariate analyses. The relative importance of geographic range size suggests group-level characters may be the primary determinant of extinction patterns over macroevolutionary time scales. 
    more » « less
  3. Analyses of evolutionary dynamics depend on how phylogenetic data are time-scaled. Most analyses of extant taxa assume a purely bifurcating model, where nodes are calibrated using the daughter lineage with the older first occurrence in the fossil record. This contrasts with budding, where nodes are calibrated using the younger first occurrence. Here, we use the extensive fossil record of bivalve molluscs for a large-scale evaluation of how branching models affect macroevolutionary analyses. We time-calibrated 91% of nodes, ranging in age from 2.59 to 485 Ma, in a phylogeny of 97 extant bivalve families. Allowing budding-based calibrations minimizes conflict between the tree and observed fossil record, and reduces the summed duration of inferred ‘ghost lineages’ from 6.76 billion years (Gyr; bifurcating model) to 1.00 Gyr (budding). Adding 31 extinct paraphyletic families raises ghost lineage totals to 7.86 Gyr (bifurcating) and 1.92 Gyr (budding), but incorporates more information to date divergences between lineages. Macroevolutionary analyses under a bifurcating model conflict with other palaeontological evidence on the magnitude of the end-Palaeozoic extinction, and strongly reduce Cenozoic diversification. Consideration of different branching models is essential when node-calibrating phylogenies, and for a major clade with a robust fossil record, a budding model appears more appropriate. 
    more » « less
  4. Predicting the effects of anthropogenic climate change on Earth’s marine mollusk species is highly relevant, as many are critical human food resources and indispensable members of marine ecosystems. To predict which species will go extinct and which will survive, it is essential to understand the past climate species have experienced, as well as determine the relationship between functional traits, which provide a direct connection to organismal ecology, and survival. Many extant West Atlantic (WA) mollusks, especially gastropods and bivalves, survived the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period and the Last Interglacial, warm intervals compared to the present, that can serve as analogues for predicted future conditions of anthropogenic climate change. WA mollusks have an exceptional Neogene fossil record, which makes them an ideal group to study to develop a predictive extinction risk framework. The present research focuses on the correlation between functional traits and extinction in over 80 species of WA mollusks, both extant and extinct. Functional trait data such as body size, mobility, diet, bathymetric depth range, and organism-substrate relationship, which correlate with metabolic requirements, a known factor in extinction risk, and degree and type of ornamentation, shell shape in bivalves, and narrowness of the aperture in gastropods, which correlate with predation resistance, were collected across these species. These comprise both continuous and discrete character data. Various statistical tests were applied to the database to examine variable correlation/interaction, and the relative contributions of traits to extinction risk. Traits related to metabolism were strong predictors of survival; traits related to predation resistance play a less important role. While this study focuses on organismic traits, the aim of future research will be to explore how group characteristics such as geographic range are associated with functional traits and extinction risk for these species. A predictive framework is developed using patterns of extinction in the fossil record to infer survival of various species in the future, which will be relevant for evaluating the potential consequences of climate change, global change biology, and for determining which species should be targeted for conservation efforts. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    As anthropogenic activities continue to threaten species across the globe, many populations have seen dramatic reductions in abundance from historical values. While the underlying causes are varied, such long‐term population declines greatly increase these species’ susceptibility to extinction via stochastic processes. Previous research has established that demographic stochasticity and environmental stochasticity play important roles in extinction risk, but few studies have investigated the role of stochasticity in social dynamics, such as group formation and mating systems. Here, we developed a suite of simulation models incorporating different combinations of stochastic processes, while also varying group size and mating system. Using these models, we evaluated the interacting effects of different mating systems coupled with varied sources of stochasticity on extinction risk. Extinction risk was generally higher for populations with mating systems more dependent on even sex ratios in groups (e.g., monogamy). However, in more flexible mating systems (e.g., polygynandry), stochasticity in the formation of individual groups actually reduced extinction risk in certain scenarios. By identifying the factors most important to the stochastic extinction risk of species with different mating systems and social structures, we provide insight into conservation and management strategies for such species facing population declines.

     
    more » « less