skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 8:00 PM ET on Friday, March 21 until 8:00 AM ET on Saturday, March 22 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data.
Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche.We test the performance of this metric—Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)—using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1633535
PAR ID:
10077205
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological sciences
Volume:
B 285
ISSN:
1471-2954
Page Range / eLocation ID:
20181698
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Marine bivalves are important components of ecosystems and exploited by humans for food across the world, but the intrinsic vulnerability of exploited bivalve species to global changes is poorly known. Here, we expand the list of shallow-marine bivalves known to be exploited worldwide, with 720 exploited bivalve species added beyond the 81 in the United Nations FAO Production Database, and investigate their diversity, distribution and extinction vulnerability using a metric based on ecological traits and evolutionary history. The added species shift the richness hotspot of exploited species from the northeast Atlantic to the west Pacific, with 55% of bivalve families being exploited, concentrated mostly in two major clades but all major body plans. We find that exploited species tend to be larger in size, occur in shallower waters, and have larger geographic and thermal ranges—the last two traits are known to confer extinction-resistance in marine bivalves. However, exploited bivalve species in certain regions such as the tropical east Atlantic and the temperate northeast and southeast Pacific, are among those with high intrinsic vulnerability and are a large fraction of regional faunal diversity. Our results pinpoint regional faunas and specific taxa of likely concern for management and conservation.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Near-time conservation palaeobiology uses palaeontological, archaeological and other geohistorical records to study the late Quaternary transition of the biosphere from its pristine past to its present-day, human-altered state. Given the scarcity of data on recent extinctions in the oceans, geohistorical records are critical for documenting human-driven extinctions and extinction threats in the marine realm. The historical perspective can provide two key insights. First, geohistorical records archive the state of pre-industrial oceans at local, regional and global scales, thus enabling the detection of recent extinctions and extirpations as well as shifts in species distribution, abundance, body size and ecosystem function. Second, we can untangle the contributions of natural and anthropogenic processes by documenting centennial-to-millennial changes in the composition and diversity of marine ecosystems before and after the onset of major human impacts. This long-term perspective identifies recently emerging patterns and processes that are unprecedented, thus allowing us to better assess human threats to marine biodiversity. Although global-scale extinctions are not well documented for brackish and marine invertebrates, geohistorical studies point to numerous extirpations, declines in ecosystem functions, increases in range fragmentation and dwindling abundance of previously widespread species, indicating that marine ecosystems are accumulating a human-driven extinction debt.

     
    more » « less
  3. Pokkathappada, Abdul Azeez (Ed.)

    Anthropogenic stressors to marine ecosystems from climate change and human activities increase extinction risk of species, disrupt ecosystem integrity, and threaten important ecosystem services. Addressing these stressors requires understanding where and to what extent they are impacting marine biological and functional diversity. We model cumulative risk of human impact upon 21,159 marine animal species by combining information on species-level vulnerability and spatial exposure to a range of anthropogenic stressors. We apply this species-level assessment of human impacts to examine patterns of species-stressor interactions within taxonomic groups. We then spatially map impacts across the global ocean, identifying locations where climate-driven impacts overlap with fishing, shipping, and land-based stressors to help inform conservation needs and opportunities. Comparing species-level modeled impacts to those based on marine habitats that represent important marine ecosystems, we find that even relatively untouched habitats may still be home to species at elevated risk, and that many species-rich coastal regions may be at greater risk than indicated from habitat-based methods alone. Finally, we incorporate a trait-based metric of functional diversity to identify where impacts to functionally unique species might pose greater risk to community structure and ecosystem integrity. These complementary lenses of species, function, and habitat provide a richer understanding of threats to marine biodiversity to help inform efforts to meet conservation targets and ensure sustainability of nature’s contributions to people.

     
    more » « less
  4. Predicting the effects of anthropogenic climate change on Earth’s marine mollusk species is highly relevant, as many are critical human food resources and indispensable members of marine ecosystems. To predict which species will go extinct and which will survive, it is essential to understand the past climate species have experienced, as well as determine the relationship between functional traits, which provide a direct connection to organismal ecology, and survival. Many extant West Atlantic (WA) mollusks, especially gastropods and bivalves, survived the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period and the Last Interglacial, warm intervals compared to the present, that can serve as analogues for predicted future conditions of anthropogenic climate change. WA mollusks have an exceptional Neogene fossil record, which makes them an ideal group to study to develop a predictive extinction risk framework. The present research focuses on the correlation between functional traits and extinction in over 80 species of WA mollusks, both extant and extinct. Functional trait data such as body size, mobility, diet, bathymetric depth range, and organism-substrate relationship, which correlate with metabolic requirements, a known factor in extinction risk, and degree and type of ornamentation, shell shape in bivalves, and narrowness of the aperture in gastropods, which correlate with predation resistance, were collected across these species. These comprise both continuous and discrete character data. Various statistical tests were applied to the database to examine variable correlation/interaction, and the relative contributions of traits to extinction risk. Traits related to metabolism were strong predictors of survival; traits related to predation resistance play a less important role. While this study focuses on organismic traits, the aim of future research will be to explore how group characteristics such as geographic range are associated with functional traits and extinction risk for these species. A predictive framework is developed using patterns of extinction in the fossil record to infer survival of various species in the future, which will be relevant for evaluating the potential consequences of climate change, global change biology, and for determining which species should be targeted for conservation efforts. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    As anthropogenic activities continue to threaten species across the globe, many populations have seen dramatic reductions in abundance from historical values. While the underlying causes are varied, such long‐term population declines greatly increase these species’ susceptibility to extinction via stochastic processes. Previous research has established that demographic stochasticity and environmental stochasticity play important roles in extinction risk, but few studies have investigated the role of stochasticity in social dynamics, such as group formation and mating systems. Here, we developed a suite of simulation models incorporating different combinations of stochastic processes, while also varying group size and mating system. Using these models, we evaluated the interacting effects of different mating systems coupled with varied sources of stochasticity on extinction risk. Extinction risk was generally higher for populations with mating systems more dependent on even sex ratios in groups (e.g., monogamy). However, in more flexible mating systems (e.g., polygynandry), stochasticity in the formation of individual groups actually reduced extinction risk in certain scenarios. By identifying the factors most important to the stochastic extinction risk of species with different mating systems and social structures, we provide insight into conservation and management strategies for such species facing population declines.

     
    more » « less