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1. Diverse strategies for tracking seasonal environmental niches at hemispheric scale

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13722  

   Cohen, Jeremy ; Jetz, Walter ( June 2023 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Species depend upon a constrained set of environmental conditions, or environmental niches, for survival and reproduction that are being increasingly perturbed or lost under rapid climatic change. Seasonal environments, which require species to withstand shifting conditions or track their niches via movement, can offer an important system to study the range of biological responses to potentially cope with climate change. Here, we develop a novel methodological framework to identify niche‐tracking strategies, including the tracking of niche position and breadth, using a uniquely well‐sampled system of 619 New World bird species.

   Western Hemisphere.

   1980–2020.

   Birds (Aves).

   At continental scales, we identify the tracking of both environmental niche position and breadth and assess its phylogenetic and functional underpinning. Partitioning niche position and breadth tracking can inform whether climatic means or extremes constrain seasonal niches.

   We uncover four primary niche‐tracking strategies, including the tracking of environmental niche position, niche breadth, both or neither. Species that track niche position most often also track niche breadth, but nearly 40% only track one component and 26% only track niche breadth and not position. There is only limited phylogenetic determinism to this variation, but a strong association with ecological and functional attributes that differs between niche position versus niche breadth tracking.

   The observed diversity in type and strength of environmental niche‐tracking strategies points to highly differing sensitivity to ongoing climatic change, with narrow trackers of both position and breadth particularly susceptible. The trait associations of niche tracking imply significant functional consequences for communities and ecosystems as impending climate change affects some strategies more strongly than others. Seasonal environments and their diversity of niche‐tracking strategies offer exceptionally dynamic systems for understanding the biological responses and consequences of climate change.

    

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2. Plants maintain climate fidelity in the face of dynamic climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2201946119  

   Wang, Yue ; Pineda-Munoz, Silvia ; McGuire, Jenny L. ( February 2023 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Plants will experience considerable changes in climate within their geographic ranges over the next several decades. They may respond by exhibiting niche flexibility and adapting to changing climates. Alternatively, plant taxa may exhibit climate fidelity, shifting their geographic distributions to track their preferred climates. Here, we examine the responses of plant taxa to changing climates over the past 18,000 y to evaluate the extent to which the 16 dominant plant taxa of North America have exhibited climate fidelity. We find that 75% of plant taxa consistently exhibit climate fidelity over the past 18,000 y, even during the times of most extreme climate change. Of the four taxa that do not consistently exhibit climate fidelity, three—elm ( Ulmus ), beech ( Fagus ), and ash ( Fraxinus )—experience a long-term shift in their realized climatic niche between the early Holocene and present day. Plant taxa that migrate longer distances better maintain consistent climatic niches across transition periods during times of the most extreme climate change. Today, plant communities with the highest climate fidelity are found in regions with high topographic and microclimate heterogeneity that are expected to exhibit high climate resilience, allowing plants to shift distributions locally and adjust to some amount of climate change. However, once the climate change buffering of the region is exceeded, these plant communities will need to track climates across broader landscapes but be challenged to do so because of the low habitat connectivity of the regions. 

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3. E nvironmental niche adaptation revealed through fine scale phenological niche modelling

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13663  

   Van_Dam, Matthew_H ; Rominger, Andrew_J ; Brewer, Michael_S ( July 2019 , Journal of Biogeography)

   Phenology, the temporal response of a population to its climate, is a crucial behavioural trait shared across life on earth. How species adapt their phenologies to climate change is poorly understood but critical in understanding how species will respond to future change. We use a group of flies (Rhaphiomidas) endemic to the North American deserts to understand how species adapt to changing climatic conditions. Here, we explore a novel approach for taxa with constrained phenologies aimed to accurately model their environmental niche and relate this to phenological and morphological adaptations in a phylogenetic context.

   Insecta, Diptera, Mydidae,Rhaphiomidas.

   North America, Mojave, Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts.

   We gathered geographical and phenological occurrence data for the entire genusRhaphiomidas, and, estimated a time calibrated phylogeny. We compared Daymet derived temperature values for a species adult occurrence period (phenology) with those derived from WorldClim data that is partitioned by month or quarter to examine what effect using more precise data has on capturing a species’ environmental niche. We then examined to what extent phylogenetic signal in phenological traits, climate tolerance and morphology can inform us about how species adapt to different environmental regimes.

   We found that the Bioclim temperature data, which are averages across monthly intervals, poorly represent the climate windows to which adult flies are actually adapted. Using temporally relevant climate data, we show that many species use a combination of morphological and phenological changes to adapt to different climate regimes. There are also instances where species changed only phenology to track a climate type or only morphology to adapt to different environments.

   Without using a fine‐scale phenological data approach, identifying environmental adaptations could be misleading because the data do not represent the conditions the animals are actually experiencing. We find that fine‐scale phenological niche models are needed when assessing taxa that have a discrete phenological window that is key to their survival, accurately linking environment to morphology and phenology. Using this approach, we show thatRhaphiomidasuse a combination of niche tracking and adaptation to persist in new niches. Modelling the effect of phenology on such species’ niches will be critical for better predictions of how these species might respond to future climate change.

    

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4. Convergent niche shifts of endangered parrots (genus Amazona ) during successful establishment in urban southern California

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13817  

   Ramirez, Brenda R. ; Freeland, Rowdy J. ; Muhlheim, Allison ; Zellmer, Amanda J. ; DeRaad, Devon A. ; Kirsch, Eliza J. ; Mutchler, Marquette J. ; Secor, Maeve B. ; Reckling, Kelsey R. ; Schedl, Margaret E. ; et al ( February 2024 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Introduced species offer insight on whether and how organisms can shift their ecological niches during translocation. The genusAmazonaoffers a clear test case, where sister species Red‐crowned (A. viridigenalis) and Lilac‐crowned Parrots (A. finschi) have established breeding populations in southern California following introduction via the pet trade from Mexico where they do not coexist. After establishment in the 1980s, introduced population sizes have increased, with mixed species flocks found throughout urban Los Angeles. Here, we investigate the differences between the environmental conditions of the native and introduced ranges of these now co‐occurring species.

   Southern California and Mexico.

   Using environmental data on climate and habitat from their native and introduced ranges, we tested whether Red‐crowned and Lilac‐crowned Parrots have divergent realized niches between their native ranges, and whether each species has significantly shifted its realized niche to inhabit urban southern California. We also analysed data from Texas and Florida introductions of Red‐crowned Parrots for comparative analysis.

   There are significant differences in the native‐range niches of both parrot species, but a convergence into a novel, shared environmental niche into urban southern California, characterized by colder temperatures, less tree cover and lower rainfall. Texas and Florida Red‐crowned Parrots also show evidence for niche shifts with varying levels of niche conservatism through the establishment of somewhat different realized niches.

   Despite significant niche shifts, introduced parrots are thriving, suggesting a broad fundamental niche and an ability to exploit urban resources. Unique niche shifts in different U.S. introductions indicate thatAmazonaparrots can adapt to diverse environmental conditions, with cities offering a resource niche and the timing of introduction playing a crucial role. Cities can potentially serve as refugia for threatened parrot species, but the risk of hybridization between species emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring and genetic investigations.

    

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5. Niche modelling predicts that soil fungi occupy a precarious climate in boreal forests

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13684  

   Qin, Clara ; Pellitier, Peter T. ; Van Nuland, Michael E. ; Peay, Kabir G. ; Zhu, Kai ( April 2023 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Efforts to predict the responses of soil fungal communities to climate change are hindered by limited information on how fungal niches are distributed across environmental hyperspace. We predict the climate sensitivity of North American soil fungal assemblage composition by modelling the ecological niches of several thousand fungal species.

   One hundred and thirteen sites in the United States and Canada spanning all biomes except tropical rain forest.

   Fungi.

   2011–2018.

   We combine internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences from two continental‐scale sampling networks in North America and cluster them into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 97% similarity. Using climate and soil data, we fit ecological niche models (ENMs) based on logistic ridge regression for all OTUs present in at least 10 sites (n = 8597). To describe the compositional turnover of soil fungal assemblages over climatic gradients, we introduce a novel niche‐based metric of climate sensitivity, the Sørensen climate sensitivity index. Finally, we map climate sensitivity across North America.

   ENMs have a mean out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy of 73.8%, with temperature variables being strong predictors of fungal distributions. Soil fungal climate niches clump together across environmental space, which suggests common physiological limits and predicts abrupt changes in composition with respect to changes in climate. Soil fungi in North American climates are more likely to be limited by cold and dry conditions than by warm and wet conditions, and ectomycorrhizal fungi generally tolerate colder temperatures than saprotrophic fungi. Sørensen climate sensitivity exhibits a multimodal distribution across environmental space, with a peak in climates corresponding to boreal forests.

   The boreal forest occupies an especially precarious region of environmental space for the composition of soil fungal assemblages in North America, as even small degrees of warming could trigger large compositional changes characterized mainly by an influx of warm‐adapted species.

    

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