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1. Decreasing Phanerozoic extinction intensity as a consequence of Earth surface oxygenation and metazoan ecophysiology

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101900118  

   Stockey, Richard G. ; Pohl, Alexandre ; Ridgwell, Andy ; Finnegan, Seth ; Sperling, Erik A. ( October 2021 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   The decline in background extinction rates of marine animals through geologic time is an established but unexplained feature of the Phanerozoic fossil record. There is also growing consensus that the ocean and atmosphere did not become oxygenated to near-modern levels until the mid-Paleozoic, coinciding with the onset of generally lower extinction rates. Physiological theory provides us with a possible causal link between these two observations—predicting that the synergistic impacts of oxygen and temperature on aerobic respiration would have made marine animals more vulnerable to ocean warming events during periods of limited surface oxygenation. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that changes in surface oxygenation exerted a first-order control on extinction rates through the Phanerozoic using a combined Earth system and ecophysiological modeling approach. We find that although continental configuration, the efficiency of the biological carbon pump in the ocean, and initial climate state all impact the magnitude of modeled biodiversity loss across simulated warming events, atmospheric oxygen is the dominant predictor of extinction vulnerability, with metabolic habitat viability and global ecophysiotype extinction exhibiting inflection points around 40% of present atmospheric oxygen. Given this is the broad upper limit for estimates of early Paleozoic oxygen levels, our results are consistent with the relative frequency of high-magnitude extinction events (particularly those not included in the canonical big five mass extinctions) early in the Phanerozoic being a direct consequence of limited early Paleozoic oxygenation and temperature-dependent hypoxia responses.

    

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2. A Carboniferous apex for the late Paleozoic icehouse

   https://doi.org/10.1144/sp535-2022-256  

   Griffis, N. ; Mundil, R. ; Montañez, I. ; Le Heron, D. ; Dietrich, P. ; Iannuzzi, R. ( October 2022 , Geological Society, London, Special Publications)

   Icehouse climate systems occur across an abbreviated portion of Earth history, constitutingc.25% of the Phanerozoic record. The Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA) was the most extreme and longest lasting glaciation of the Phanerozoic and is characterized by periods of acute continental-scale glaciation, separated by periods of ice minima or ice-free conditions on the order of <10⁶years. The late Paleozoic glaciogenic record of the Paraná and Kalahari basins of southern Gondwana form one of the largest, best-preserved and well-calibrated records of this glaciation. In the Carboniferous, the eastern and southern margins of the Paraná Basin and the Kalahari Basin were characterized by subglacial conditions, with evidence for continental and upland glaciers. In the latest Carboniferous, these basins transitioned from subglacial reservoirs to ice-free or ‘ice distal‘ conditions evidenced by the widespread deposition of marine deposits juxtaposed on subglacial bedforms. High-precision U–Pb zircon chemical abrasion thermal ionization mass spectrometry geochronological constraints from volcanic ash deposits in the deglacial marine black shales of the Kalahari Basin and from fluvial and coal successions, which overlie marine deposits in the Paraná Basin, indicate subglacial evidence in these regions is constrained to the Carboniferous. The loss of ice in these regions is congruent with a late Carboniferous peak inpCO₂and widespread marine anoxia in the late Carboniferous. The permeant retreat of glaciers in basinal settings, despite an early PermianpCO₂nadir, highlights the influence of short-term perturbations on the longer-term CO₂record and suggests an ice threshold had been crossed in the latest Carboniferous. A definitive driver for greenhouse gases in the LPIA, such as abundant and sustained volcanic activity or an increased biological pump driven by ocean fertilization, is unresolved for this period. Lastly, the proposed Carboniferous apex for the high-latitude LPIA record is incongruent with observations from the low-latitude tropics where an early Permian peak is proposed.

    

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3. Late Eocene Record of Hydrology and Temperature From Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004204  

   Tibbett, Emily J. ; Scher, Howie D. ; Warny, Sophie ; Tierney, Jessica E. ; Passchier, Sandra ; Feakins, Sarah J. ( April 2021 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   The Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) marks the onset of Antarctic glaciation at 33.7 Ma. Although the benthic oxygen isotope record defines the major continental ice sheet expansion, recent sedimentary and geochemical evidence suggests the presence of earlier ephemeral ice sheets. Sediment cores from Ocean Drilling Program Legs 119 and 188 in Prydz Bay provide an archive of conditions in a major drainage system of East Antarctica. We study biomarker and microfossil evidence to discern how the vegetation and climate shifted between 36 and 33 Ma. Pollen was dominated by reworked Permian Glossopterid gymnosperms; however, penecontemporaneous Eocene pollen assemblages indicate that some vegetation survived the glacial advances. At the EOT, brGDGT soil biomarkers indicate abrupt cooling from 13°C to 8°C and soil pH increases from 6.0 to 6.7, suggesting drying which is further supported by plant wax hydrogen and carbon isotopic shifts of 20‰ and 1.1‰, respectively, and evidence for drying from weathering proxies. Although the terrestrial soil biomarker influx mostly precludes the use of TEX₈₆, we find sea surface temperatures of 12°C in the late Eocene cooling to 8°C at the EOT. Marine productivity undergoes a sustained increase after the glacial advance, likely promoted by enhanced ocean circulation. Between the two glacial surge events of the Priabonian Oxygen Maximum at 37.3 Ma and the EOT at 33.7 Ma, we observe warming of 2–5°C at 35.7 and 34.7 Ma, with increase in penecontemporaneous pollen and enhanced marine productivity, capturing the last flickers of Antarctic warmth.

    

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4. Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1  

   Dessler, Andrew E. ( March 2020 , Journal of Climate)

   This study investigates potential biases between equilibrium climate sensitivity inferred from warming over the historical period (ECS_hist) and the climate system’s true ECS (ECS_true). This paper focuses on two factors that could contribute to differences between these quantities. First is the impact of internal variability over the historical period: our historical climate record is just one of an infinity of possible trajectories, and these different trajectories can generate ECS_histvalues 0.3 K below to 0.5 K above (5%–95% confidence interval) the average ECS_hist. Because this spread is due to unforced variability, I refer to this as the unforced pattern effect. This unforced pattern effect in the model analyzed here is traced to unforced variability in loss of sea ice, which affects the albedo feedback, and to unforced variability in warming of the troposphere, which affects the shortwave cloud feedback. There is also a forced pattern effect that causes ECS_histto depart from ECS_truedue to differences between today’s transient pattern of warming and the pattern of warming at 2×CO₂equilibrium. Changes in the pattern of warming lead to a strengthening low-cloud feedback as equilibrium is approached in regions where surface warming is delayed: the Southern Ocean, eastern Pacific, and North Atlantic near Greenland. This forced pattern effect causes ECS_histto be on average 0.2 K lower than ECS_true(~8%). The net effect of these two pattern effects together can produce an estimate of ECS_histas much as 0.5 K below ECS_true.

    

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5. Tetrapod turnover during the Permo-Triassic transition explained by temperature change

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103886  

   Liu, Jun ; Abdala, Fernando ; Angielczyk, Kenneth D. ; Sidor, Christian A. ( December 2021 , Earthscience reviews)

   Global temperatures significantly changed from the late Permian to the Early Triassic: the Earth transformed from a cool world to a hothouse climate. This transition undoubtedly had a strong impact on tetrapod physiology and distribution. During the global cooling, tetrapods generally increased their size; and the currently recognized late Permian tetrapod extinction, exemplified by the record preserved in the South African Karoo Basin, occurred in the late stage of cooling. Rapid warming in the Early Triassic is predicted to have resulted in extinctions and/or local extirpation of low latitude tetrapods, but the very limited fossil record from this region makes testing this hypothesis difficult. Warming is predicted to have had less negative impacts on the tetrapod diversity of mid-latitudes, and promoted the success of tetrapods in the high latitudes. Based on the known fossil record, a tetrapod gap could have existed in central Pangea between ~30◦ N and ~ 40◦S, and lasting from the Induan to the early Spathian. However, the exact boundaries of this gap likely varied over time, and it could have encompassed a larger area during the hottest phases (Griesbachian and near the Smithian–Spathain boundary). 

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