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1. Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775  

   Gustafson, Eric J.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Sturtevant, Brian R. (December 2020, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution)

   null (Ed.)

   Changes in CO 2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between climate inputs, physiology of vegetation, and soils at a monthly time step. The updated modeling system can produce high quality projections of climate impacts on forest species range shifts by accounting for the interacting effects of CO 2 concentration, climate (including longer growing seasons), seed dispersal, disturbance, and soil hydrologic properties. 

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2. Competitive response of savanna tree seedlings to C ₄ grasses is negatively related to photosynthesis rate

   https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12484  

   Campbell, Tracy A.; Holdo, Ricardo M. (September 2017, Biotropica)

   Abstract Savanna tree species vary in the magnitude of their response to grass competition, but the functional traits that explain this variation remain largely unknown. To address this gap, we grew seedlings of 10 savanna tree species with and without grasses in a controlled greenhouse experiment. We found strong interspecific differences in tree competitive response, which was positively related to photosynthesis rates, suggesting a trade‐off between the ability to grow well under conditions of low and high grass biomass across tree species. We also found no competitive effect of tree seedlings on grass, suggesting strong tree‐grass competitive asymmetry. Our results identify a potentially important trade‐off that enhances our ability to predict how savanna tree communities might respond to variation in grass competition. 

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3. Putting seedlings on the map: Trade‐offs in demographic rates between ontogenetic size classes in five tropical forests

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4527  

   Kambach, Stephan; Bruelheide, Helge; Comita, Liza S; Condit, Richard; Wright, S Joseph; Aguilar, Salomón; Chang‐Yang, Chia‐Hao; Chen, Yu‐Yun; Garwood, Nancy C; Hubbell, Stephen P; et al (January 2025, Ecology)

   Abstract All species must partition resources among the processes that underly growth, survival, and reproduction. The resulting demographic trade‐offs constrain the range of viable life‐history strategies and are hypothesized to promote local coexistence. Tropical forests pose ideal systems to study demographic trade‐offs as they have a high diversity of coexisting tree species whose life‐history strategies tend to align along two orthogonal axes of variation: a growth–survival trade‐off that separates species with fast growth from species with high survival and a stature–recruitment trade‐off that separates species that achieve large stature from species with high recruitment. As these trade‐offs have typically been explored for trees ≥1 cm dbh, it is unclear how species' growth and survival during earliest seedling stages are related to the trade‐offs for trees ≥1 cm dbh. Here, we used principal components and correlation analyses to (1) determine the main demographic trade‐offs among seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and growth and survival rates from the seedling to overstory size classes of 1188 tree species from large‐scale forest dynamics plots in Panama, Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Taiwan, and Malaysia and (2) quantify the predictive power of maximum dbh, wood density, seed mass, and specific leaf area for species' position along these demographic trade‐off gradients. In four out of five forests, the growth–survival trade‐off was the most important demographic trade‐off and encompassed growth and survival of both seedlings and trees ≥1 cm dbh. The second most important trade‐off separated species with relatively fast growth and high survival at the seedling stage from species with relatively fast growth and high survival ≥1 cm dbh. The relationship between seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and these two trade‐off aces differed between sites. All four traits were significant predictors for species' position along the two trade‐off gradients, albeit with varying importance. We concluded that, after accounting for the species' position along the growth–survival trade‐off, tree species tend to trade off growth and survival at the seedling with later life stages. This ontogenetic trade‐off offers a mechanistic explanation for the stature–recruitment trade‐off that constitutes an additional ontogenetic dimension of life‐history variation in species‐rich ecosystems. 

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4. Biotic interactions help explain variation in elevational range limits of birds among Bornean mountains

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13784  

   Burner, Ryan C.; Boyce, Andy J.; Bernasconi, David; Styring, Alison R.; Shakya, Subir B.; Boer, Chandradewana; Rahman, Mustafa Abdul; Martin, Thomas E.; Sheldon, Frederick H. (January 2020, Journal of Biogeography)

   Abstract AimPhysiological tolerances and biotic interactions along habitat gradients are thought to influence species occurrence. Distributional differences caused by such forces are particularly noticeable on tropical mountains, where high species turnover along elevational gradients occurs over relatively short distances and elevational distributions of particular species can shift among mountains. Such shifts are interpreted as evidence of the importance of spatial variation in interspecific competition and habitat or climatic gradients. To assess the relative importance of competition and compression of habitat and climatic zones in setting range limits, we examined differences in elevational ranges of forest bird species among four Bornean mountains with distinct features. LocationBornean mountains Kinabalu, Mulu, Pueh and Topap Oso. TaxonRain forest bird communities along elevational gradients. MethodsWe surveyed the elevational ranges of rain forest birds on four mountains in Borneo to test which environmental variables—habitat zone compression or presence of likely competitors—best predicted differences in elevational ranges of species among mountains. For this purpose, we used two complementary tests: a comparison of elevational range limits between pairs of mountains, and linear mixed models with naïve occupancy as the response variable. ResultsWe found that lowland species occur higher in elevation on two small mountains compared to Mt. Mulu. This result is inconsistent with the expectation that distributions of habitats are elevationally compressed on small mountains, but is consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in competition (likely diffuse) on short mountains, which largely lack montane specialist species, allows lowland species to occur higher in elevation. The relative influence of competition changes with elevation, and the correlation between lower range limits of montane species and the distribution of their competitors was weaker than in lowland species. Main conclusionsThese findings provide support for the importance of biotic interactions in setting elevational range limits of tropical bird species, although abiotic gradients explain the majority of distribution patterns. Thus, models predicting range shifts under climate change scenarios must include not only climatic variables, as is currently most common, but also information on potentially resulting changes in species interactions, especially for lowland species. 

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5. Small disturbances and subsequent competition for light can maintain a diversity of demographic strategies in a neotropical forest: Results from model–data integration

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70118  

   Cinoğlu, Damla; Rüger, Nadja; Decker, Robin_R; Farrior, Caroline_E (July 2025, Journal of Ecology)

   Abstract Niche differentiation with respect to light availability as it varies across succession has often been thought to explain tree species coexistence. Demographic light‐related niches represented by growth‐survival and stature‐recruitment trade‐offs and captured by demographic groups (slow, fast, long‐lived pioneers, short‐lived breeders and intermediate) have been shown to accurately represent the biomass dynamics of secondary and old‐growth forests in central Panama in a model. However, whether the simple mechanisms of that well‐parameterized and accurate model are enough to support the long‐term coexistence of demographic groups across these trade‐offs has yet to be tested.Here, we develop a model to test whether stochastic, small‐scale gap disturbances and subsequent competition for light can support the long‐term coexistence of the observed demographic groups in the Barro Colorado Island forest dynamics plot. Specifically, to test whether the demographic differences among species promote coexistence, we compare niche simulation models, parameterized by the different demographic groups, to a variety of neutral models, where the species have the same demographic parameters.Upon exploring the estimated range of possible parameterizations of recruitment (a difficult‐to‐measure parameter), we identify several parameterizations where differences among groups along the growth‐survival and stature‐recruitment trade‐off axes facilitate long‐term coexistence. We find that gap disturbances are essential for these results, indicating that it is the differences in the subsequent competition for light through time that provide the opportunity for stabilizing niche differentiation. Additionally, the parameterizations that generate stable coexistence display successional negative density dependence and realistic within‐patch post‐disturbance forest dynamics.Synthesis. This model‐data integration exercise indicates that small‐scale disturbances and subsequent competition for light may be significant forces for stable diversity maintenance of demographic groups along the growth–survival and stature–recruitment trade‐off axes in a neotropical forest. This result, however, holds only for a subset of the empirically reasonable recruitment parameters, indicating the importance of improving the understanding of recruitment and its demographic trade‐offs for understanding demographic strategy coexistence. 

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