Abstract Light–moderate precipitation is projected to decrease whereas heavy precipitation may increase under greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming, while atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) over most of the globe and convective inhibition (CIN) over land are projected to increase. The underlying processes for these precipitation changes are not fully understood. Here, projected precipitation changes are analyzed using 3-hourly data from simulations by a fully coupled climate model, and their link to the CAPE and CIN changes is examined. The model approximately captures the spatial patterns in the mean precipitation frequencies and the significant correlation between the precipitation frequencies or intensity and CAPE over most of the globe or CIN over tropical oceans seen in reanalysis, and it projects decreased light–moderate precipitation (0.01 < P ≤ 1 mm h −1 ) but increased heavy precipitation ( P > 1 mm h −1 ) in a warmer climate. Results show that most of the light–moderate precipitation events occur under low-CAPE and/or low-CIN conditions, which are projected to decrease greatly in a warmer climate as increased temperature and humidity shift many of such cases into moderate–high CAPE or CIN cases. This results in large decreases in the light–moderate precipitation events. In contrast,more »
Heat Waves in Florida: Climatology, Trends, and Related Precipitation Events
Heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity and are strongly linked to anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have examined heat waves in Florida, despite an older population and increasingly urbanized land areas that make it particularly susceptible to heat impacts. Heavy precipitation events are also becoming more frequent and intense; recent climate model simulations showed that heavy precipitation in the three days after a Florida heat wave follow these trends, yet the underlying dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms have not been investigated. In this study, a heat wave climatology and trend analysis are developed from 1950 to 2016 for seven major airports in Florida. Heat waves are defined based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. Results show that heat waves exhibit statistically significant increases in frequency and duration at most stations, especially for mean and minimum temperature events. Frequency and duration increases are most prominent at Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, and Key West. Heat waves in northern Florida are characterized by large-scale continental ridging, while heat waves in central and southern Florida are associated with a combination of a continental ridge and a westward extension of the Bermuda–Azores high. Heavy precipitation events that follow more »
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10087023
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
- Volume:
- 58
- Issue:
- 3
- Page Range or eLocation-ID:
- p. 447-466
- ISSN:
- 1558-8424
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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