Small-scale variations within the low-level outflow and inflow of an MCS can either support or deter the upscale growth and maintenance of the MCS. However, these small-scale variations, in particular in the thermodynamics (temperature and humidity), remain poorly understood, due to a lack of detailed measurements. The compact Raman lidar (CRL) deployed on the University of Wyoming King Air aircraft directly sampled temperature and water vapor profiles at unprecedented vertical and along-track resolutions along the southern margin of a series of mature nocturnal MCSs traveling along a frontal boundary on 1 July 2015 during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign. Here, the capability of the airborne CRL to document interactions between the MCS inflow and outflow currents is illustrated. The CRL reveals the well-defined boundary of a cooler current. This is interpreted as the frontal boundary sharpened by convectively induced cold pools, in particular by the outflow boundary of the downstream MCS. In one CRL transect, the frontal/outflow boundary appeared as a distinct two-layer structure of moisture and aerosols formed by moist stable boundary layer air advected above the boundary. The second transect, one hour later, reveals a single sloping boundary. In both cases, the lofting of the moist stably stratified air over the boundary favors MCS maintenance, through enhanced elevated CAPE and reduced CIN. The CRL data are sufficiently resolved to reveal Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) billows and the vertical structure of the outflow boundary, which in this case behaved as a density current rather than an undular bore.
In order to understand the characteristics of long‐lasting “C‐type” structure in the Sodium (Na) lidargram, six cases from different observational locations have been analyzed. The Na lidargram, collected from low‐, middle‐, and high‐latitude sites, show long lifetime of the C‐type structures which is believed to be the manifestation of Kelvin‐Helmholtz (KH) billows in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region. In order to explore the characteristics of the long‐lasting C‐type structures, the altitude profile of square of Brunt‐Väisälä frequency in the MLT region has been derived using the temperature profile collected from the Na lidar instruments and the SABER instrument onboard TIMED satellite. It is found to be positive in the C‐type structure region for all the six cases which indicates that the regions are convectively stable. Simultaneous wind measurements, which allowed us to calculate the Richardson numbers and Reynolds numbers for three cases, suggest that the regions where the C‐type structure appeared were dynamically stable and nonturbulent. This paper brings out a hypothesis wherein the low temperature can increase the magnitude of the Prandtl number and convectively stable atmospheric region can cause the magnitude of Reynolds number to decrease. As a consequence, the remnant of previously generated KH billows in nearly “frozen‐in” condition can be advected through this conducive region to a different location by the background wind where they can sustain for a long time without much deformation. These long‐lived KH billows in the MLT region will eventually manifest the long‐lasting C‐type structures in the Na lidargram.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1759471
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10460276
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
- Volume:
- 124
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2169-9380
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 3110-3124
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
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Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.
Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.
Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.
Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (
https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z). -
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Abstract Kjellstrand et al. (2022),
https://10.1029/2021JD036232 describes the evolution and dynamics of a strong, large‐scale Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability (KHI) event observed in polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) on 12 July 2018 by high‐resolution imagers aboard the PMC Turbulence (PMC Turbo) stratospheric long‐duration balloon experiment. The imaging provides evidence of KH billow interactions and instabilities that are strongly influenced by gravity waves at larger scales. Specific features include initially separated regions of KHI, secondary convective and KH instabilities of individual billows, and “tubes” and “knots” that arise where billow cores are mis‐aligned or discontinuous along their axes. This study describes a direct numerical simulation of KH billow interactions in a periodic domain seeded with random initial noise that enables excitation of multiple KH billows exhibiting variable phase structures that capture multiple features of the observed KHI dynamics. Variable KH billow phases along their axes yield initial vortex tubes having diagonal alignments that link adjacent, but mis‐aligned, billow cores. Weak initial vortex tubes and billow cores having nearly orthogonal alignments amplify, interact strongly, and drive intense vortex knots at these sites. These vortex tube and knot (T&K) dynamics excite “twist waves” that unravel the initial vortex tubes, and drive increasingly strong vortex interactions and a cascade of energy and enstrophy to successively smaller scales in the turbulence inertial range. The implications of T&K dynamics are much more rapid and intense breakdown and decay of the KH billows, and significantly enhanced energy dissipation rates, where these interactions occur. -
null (Ed.)To design and optimize arrays of vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) for maximal power density and minimal wake losses, a careful consideration of the inherently three-dimensional structure of the wakes of these turbines in real operating conditions is needed. Accordingly, a new volumetric particle-tracking velocimetry method was developed to measure three-dimensional flow fields around full-scale VAWTs in field conditions. Experiments were conducted at the Field Laboratory for Optimized Wind Energy (FLOWE) in Lancaster, CA, using six cameras and artificial snow as tracer particles. Velocity and vorticity measurements were obtained for a 2 kW turbine with five straight blades and a 1 kW turbine with three helical blades, each at two distinct tip-speed ratios and at Reynolds numbers based on the rotor diameter $D$ between $1.26 \times 10^{6}$ and $1.81 \times 10^{6}$ . A tilted wake was observed to be induced by the helical-bladed turbine. By considering the dynamics of vortex lines shed from the rotating blades, the tilted wake was connected to the geometry of the helical blades. Furthermore, the effects of the tilted wake on a streamwise horseshoe vortex induced by the rotation of the turbine were quantified. Lastly, the implications of this dynamics for the recovery of the wake were examined. This study thus establishes a fluid-mechanical connection between the geometric features of a VAWT and the salient three-dimensional flow characteristics of its near-wake region, which can potentially inform both the design of turbines and the arrangement of turbines into highly efficient arrays.more » « less
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This work experimentally investigates the pressure-driven flow of a pure Newtonian fluid through three-dimensional (3D) porous media models. The porous media model consists of square arrays of rods that also could be interpreted as a periodic tandem rod arrangement. We employed a time-resolved three-dimensional particle tracking velocimetry (3D Shake-the-Box) technique for a range of Reynolds numbers [Formula: see text] to observe flow structures and vortex formation between the rods in porous media structures with different porosities of [Formula: see text] which corresponds to the spacing ratio of [Formula: see text], where L is the distance between the centers of the rods, and D is the diameter of the rods. For all the examined cases, we further analyzed the effect of the Reynolds number and the spacing ratio on the instantaneous and averaged patterns of velocity, vorticity, and the other flow parameters after obtaining the two-dimensional velocity fields using the bin-averaging method. We observed both symmetrical and asymmetrical patterns of structure and recirculation regions between the rods depending on the Reynolds number and spacing ratio. Increasing the Reynolds number reduced the symmetrical patterns of flow structures with respect to the centerline of the gap region, while the spacing ratio was randomly affecting the symmetry degree. Vortex shedding was considerable for the two examined high Reynolds numbers of Re = 444 and Re = 890 behind the upstream rod as the porosity increased. The backward movement of the reattachment point has been observed by increasing the Reynolds number.more » « less
