More Like this

1. Does Welfare Prevent Crime? the Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from Ssi

   https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac017  

   Deshpande, Manasi; Mueller-Smith, Michael (June 2022, The Quarterly Journal of Economics)

   Abstract We estimate the effect of losing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. To estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for SSI eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. We evaluate this natural experiment with Social Security Administration data linked to records from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System. We find that SSI removal increases the number of criminal charges by a statistically significant 20% over the next two decades. The increase in charges is concentrated in offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation (60% increase), especially theft, burglary, fraud/forgery, and prostitution. The effect of SSI removal on criminal justice involvement persists more than two decades later, even as the effect of removal on contemporaneous SSI receipt diminishes. In response to SSI removal, youth are twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they are to maintain steady employment at $${\$$}$$15,000/year in the labor market. As a result of these charges, the annual likelihood of incarceration increases by a statistically significant 60% in the two decades following SSI removal. The costs to taxpayers of enforcement and incarceration from SSI removal are so high that they nearly eliminate the savings to taxpayers from reduced SSI benefits. 

   more » « less
2. A STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ON DATA PRIVACY

   Liu, Fang (August 2020, Notre Dame journal of law ethics public policy)

   The eruption of big data with the increasing collection and processing of vast volumes and variety of data have led to breakthrough discoveries and innovation in science, engineering, medicine, commerce, criminal justice, and national security that would not have been possible in the past. While there are many benefits to the collection and usage of big data, there are also growing concerns among the general public on what personal information is collected and how it is used. In addition to legal policies and regulations, technological tools and statistical strategies also exist to promote and safeguard individual privacy, while releasing and sharing useful population-level information. In this overview, I introduce some of these approaches, as well as the existing challenges and opportunities in statistical data privacy research and applications to better meet the practical needs of privacy protection and information sharing. 

   more » « less
3. Stimulating Career Development: Assessment of the Effects of Guest Speaker Learning Experiences on Students Enrolled in Criminal Justice College Courses

   https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-4409.2023.12.09  

   Chintakrindi, Sriram (March 2023, International Journal of Criminology and Sociology)

   This research study examines the impact of a guest speaker intervention on college students enrolled in criminal justice courses at a mid-sized university in California. Students in the study attended guest speaker presentations ranging from probation officers, correctional officers, academics, and public defenders. Students in the study were required to complete a pre-and post-survey throughout the Fall 2022 and Spring 2023 semesters that examined the students’ agreeableness, confidence, and knowledge with regard to their experiences with attending guest speaker opportunities and their knowledge about career pathways and academic concepts while pursuing a college degree. The results from this study indicate that many students find guest speaker opportunities to be both beneficial for advancing their knowledge of the criminal justice system and confidence in pursuing a career in criminal justice. 

   more » « less
4. Interpretable Hawkes Process Spatial Crime Forecasting with TV-Regularization

   Sha, H.; Hasan, M.; Carter, J.G.; Mohler, G. (January 2020, IEEE International Conference on Big Data)

   null (Ed.)

   Interpretable models for criminal justice forecasting are desirable due to the high-stakes nature of the application. While interpretable models have been developed for individual level forecasts of recidivism, interpretable models are lacking for the application of space-time crime hotspot forecasting. Here we introduce an interpretable Hawkes process model of crime that allows forecasts to capture near-repeat effects and spatial heterogeneity while being consumable in the form of easy-to-read score cards. For this purpose we employ penalized likelihood estimation of the point process with a total-variation regularization that enforces the triggering kernel to be piece-wise constant. We derive an efficient expectation-maximization algorithm coupled with forward backward splitting for the TV constraint to estimate the model. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and space-time crime data from Indianapolis. The TV-Hawkes process achieves similar accuracy to standard Hawkes process models of crime while increasing interpretability and transparency. 

   more » « less
5. The Relationship Between Crime Rates and Socio-Economic Factors in Maryland

   Zenebe, Azene; Lakew, Nega; Obisesan, Ademola; Ponnala, Nitisha; Parker, Moriah (April 2025, National Association of Business, Economics and Technology)

   Sigmond, Norman C (Ed.)

   This study aims to find how crime rates in Maryland are connected to different socioeconomic elements. This study is focused on understanding how crime rates link up with factors like unemployment, household income levels, racial backgrounds, and the level of education people have. A quantitative analysis of state-level crime data from 2010 to 2020 was used; the study employs a comprehensive range of methods. Conducted a detailed picture through descriptive analysis, then reshaped data using log and square root transformations, and tested hypotheses with a t-test. The paper further examines the relationships between variables through a correlation matrix before applying ordinary least squares regression to predict outcomes. It has been discovered that areas facing more significant economic challenges seen through higher Unemployment rates and diminished earnings frequently show an uptick in crime. The examination highlights a strong link between unemployment and criminal behavior, especially in counties where families consistently earn less. Research highlights how vital education is by showing that when people achieve higher levels of education, they tend to commit fewer crimes. The study illuminates the intricate interplay between economic factors and criminal activities, offering invaluable insights for law enforcement agencies and policymakers. These insights can guide the development of effective strategies to combat crime; ultimately, the research deepens our understanding of how economic fluctuations significantly influence crime rates in Maryland. 

   more » « less