High‐elevation montane forests are disproportionately important to carbon sequestration in semiarid climates where low elevations are dry and characterized by low carbon density ecosystems. However, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change with seasonal implications for photosynthesis and forest growth. As a result, we leveraged eddy covariance data from six evergreen conifer forest sites in the semiarid western United States to extrapolate the status of carbon sequestration within a framework of projected warming and drying. At colder locations, the seasonal evolution of gross primary productivity (GPP) was characterized by a single broad maximum during the summer that corresponded to snow melt‐derived moisture and a transition from winter dormancy to spring activity. Conversely, winter dormancy was transient at warmer locations, and GPP was responsive to both winter and summer precipitation such that two distinct GPP maxima were separated by a period of foresummer drought. This resulted in a predictable sequence of primary limiting factors to GPP beginning with air temperature in winter and proceeding to moisture and leaf area during the summer. Due to counteracting winter (positive) and summer (negative) GPP responses to warming, leaf area index and moisture availability were the best predictors of annual GPP differences across sites. Overall, mean annual GPP was greatest at the warmest site due to persistent vegetation photosynthetic activity throughout the winter. These results indicate that the trajectory of this region's carbon sequestration will be sensitive to reduced or delayed summer precipitation, especially if coupled to snow drought and earlier soil moisture recession, but summer precipitation changes remain highly uncertain. Given the demonstrated potential for seasonally offsetting responses to warming, we project that decadal semiarid montane forest carbon sequestration will remain relatively stable in the absence of severe disturbance.
The spring dry season occurring in an arid region of the southwestern United States, which receives both winter storm track and summer monsoon precipitation, is investigated. Bimodal precipitation and vegetation growth provide an opportunity to assess multiple climate mechanisms and their impact on hydroclimate and ecosystems. We detect multiple shifts from wet to drier conditions in the observational record and land surface model output. Focusing on the recent dry period, a shift in the late 1990s resulted in earlier and greater spring soil moisture draw down, and later and reduced spring vegetation green-up, compared to a prior wet period (1979–97). A simple soil moisture balance model shows this shift is driven by changes in winter precipitation. The recent post-1999 dry period and an earlier one from 1948 to 1966 are both related to the cool tropics phase of Pacific decadal variability, which influences winter precipitation. In agreement with other studies for the southwestern United States, we find the recent drought cannot be explained in terms of precipitation alone, but also is due to the rising influence of temperature, thus highlighting the sensitivity of this region to warming temperatures. Future changes in the spring dry season will therefore be affected by how tropical decadal variability evolves, and also by emerging trends due to human-driven warming.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10102759
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Hydrometeorology
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1525-755X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1081-1102
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
The hydroclimate of the southwestern United States (US) region changed abruptly during the latest Pleistocene as the continental ice sheets over North America retreated from their most southerly extent. To investigate the nature of this change, we present a new record from Lake Elsinore, located 36 km inland from the Pacific Ocean in Southern California and evaluate it in the context of records across the coastal and interior southwest United States, including northwest Mexico. The sediment core recovered from Lake Elsinore provides a continuous sequence with multi-decadal resolution spanning 19e9 ka BP. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses reveal hydrologic variability. In particular, sand and carbonate components indicate abrupt changes at the Oldest Dryas (OD), BøllingeAllerød (BA), and Younger Dryas (YD) transitions, consistent with the timing in Greenland. Hydrogen isotope analyses of the C28 nalkanoic acids from plant leaf waxes (dDwax) reveal a long term trend toward less negative values across 19 9 ka BP. dDwax values during the OD suggest a North Pacific moisture source for precipitation, consistent with the dipping westerlies hypothesis. We find no isotopic evidence for the North American Monsoon reaching as far west as Lake Elsinore; therefore, we infer that wet/dry changes in the coastal southwest were expressed through winter-season precipitation, consistent with modern climatology. Comparing Lake Elsinore to other southwest records (notably Cave of Bells and Fort Stanton) we find coincident timing of the major transitions (OD to BA, BA to YD) and hydrologic responses during the OD and BA. The hydrologic response, however, varied during the YD consistent with a dipole between the coastal and interior southwest. The coherent pattern of hydrologic responses across the interior southwest US and northwest Mexico during the OD (wet), the BA (drier), and YD (wet) follows changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, presumably via its combined influence on North Pacific winter storm tracks and the extent/magnitude of the North American Monsoon. In contrast, Lake Elsinore and the coastal southwest experiences a deglacial drying trend punctuated by abrupt change at the OD to BA and BA to YD transitions. This trend tracks rising greenhouse gases through the deglacial, with an apparent southward shift in westerly moisture sources adjusting to the retreating ice sheet.more » « less
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