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1. Complex Effects of Telecouplings on Forest Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

   https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-20-0029.1  

   Yang, Hongbo ; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika ; Dou, Yue ; Chung, Min Gon ; Zhang, Jindong ; Liu, Jianguo ( January 2022 , Earth Interactions)

   Rural areas are increasingly subject to the effects of telecouplings (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances) whereby their human and natural dynamics are linked to socioeconomic and environmental drivers operating far away, such as the growing demand for labor and ecosystem services in cities. Although there have been many studies evaluating the effects of telecouplings, telecouplings in those studies were often investigated separately, and how telecouplings may interact and affect dynamics of rural coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) jointly was rarely evaluated. In this study, we developed an agent-based model and simulated the impacts of two globally common telecouplings, nature-based tourism and labor migration, on forest dynamics of a rural CHANS, China’s Wolong Nature Reserve (Wolong). Nature-based tourism and labor migration can facilitate forest recovery, and the predicted forest areas in Wolong in 2030 would be reduced by 26.2 km²(6.8%) and 23.9 km²(6.2%), respectively, without their effects. However, tourism development can significantly reduce the probability of local households to have member(s) outmigrate to work in cities and decrease the positive impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our simulations show that the interaction between tourism and labor migration can reduce the potential forest recovery by 3.5 km²(5.0%) inmore »2030. Our study highlights that interactions among different telecouplings can generate significant impacts on socioeconomic and environmental outcomes and should be jointly considered in the design, management, and evaluation of telecouplings for achieving sustainable development goals.

   Rural areas are increasingly connected with other places through telecouplings, such as tourism and labor migration. However, telecouplings’ effects were often evaluated separately, and their interaction remains poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated how two globally common telecouplings, tourism and labor migration, jointly affect forest dynamics in a demonstration site using an agent-based modeling approach. Although both tourism and labor migration can benefit forest conservation, we found that their interaction generates an antagonistic effect: households’ involvement in tourism activities reduces their probability to have members outmigrate to work in cities and significantly diminishes the beneficial impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our study highlights the importance of considering interaction among telecouplings in the management of telecouplings for sustainability.

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2. Assessing the effects of payments for ecosystem services programs on forest structure and species biodiversity

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-01953-3  

   Chen, H.L. ( February 2020 , Biodiversity and conservation)

   Globally, biodiversity has declined at an unprecedented rate, challenging the viability of ecosystems, species, and ecological functions and their corresponding services. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs have been established and implemented worldwide to combat the degradation or loss of essential ecosystems and ecosystem services with-out sacrificing the well-being of people. With an overarching goal of reducing soil ero-sion, China’s Grain-to-Green program (GTGP) converts cropland to forest or grassland. As one of the largest PES programs in the world, GTGP has great potential to offer biodi-versity conservation co-benefits. To consider how GTGP may influence biodiversity, we measured forest structure and plant and wildlife species diversity at both GTGP forest and natural forest sites in Fangjingshan National Nature Reserve, China. We also evaluated the relationship between canopy cover and biodiversity measures to test whether forest cover, the most commonly measured and reported ecological metric of PES programs, might act as a good proxy for other biodiversity related parameters. We found that forest cover and species diversity increased after GTGP implementation as understory and overstory plant cover, and understory and midstory plant diversity at GTGP sites were similar to natural forest. Our results suggest that GTGP may also have been associated withmore »increased habitat for protected and vulnerable wildlife species including Elliot’s pheasant (Syrmaticus elli-oti), hog badger (Arctonyx collaris), and wild boar (Sus scrofa). Nevertheless, we identi-fied key differences between GTGP forest and natural forest, particularly variation in forest types and heterogeneity of overstory vegetation. As a result, plant overstory diversity and wildlife species richness at GTGP forest were significantly lower than at natural forest. Our findings suggest, while forest cover may be a good proxy for some metrics of forest struc-ture, it does not serve as a robust proxy for many biodiversity parameters. These findings highlight the need for and importance of robust and representative indicators or proxy vari-ables for measuring ecological effects of PES programs on compositional and structural diversity. We demonstrate that PES may lead to biodiversity co-benefits, but changes in program implementation could improve the return on investment of PES programs to sup-port conservation of biodiversity.« less
3. A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020431118  

   Yoon, Jim ; Klassert, Christian ; Selby, Philip ; Lachaut, Thibaut ; Knox, Stephen ; Avisse, Nicolas ; Harou, Julien ; Tilmant, Amaury ; Klauer, Bernd ; Mustafa, Daanish ; et al ( March 2021 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold onmore »its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.« less
4. Neighborhood impacts on household participation in payments for ecosystem services programs

   Zhang, Huijie ; Bilsborrow, Richard ; Chun, Yongwan ; Yang, Shuang ; Dai, Jie ( June 2021 , Journal of geographical sciences)

   Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs have been implemented in both developing and developed countries to conserve ecosystems and the vital services they provide. These programs also often seek to maintain or improve the economic wellbeing of the populations living in the corresponding (usually rural) areas. Previous studies suggest that PES policy design, presence or absence of concurrent PES programs, and a variety of socioeconomic and demographic factors can influence decisions of households to participate or not in the PES program. However, neighborhood impacts on household participation in PES have rarely been addressed. This study explores potential neighborhood effects on villagers’ enrollment in the Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP), one of the largest PES programs in the world, using data from China’s Fanjingshan National Nature Reserve. We utilize a fixed effects logistic regression model in combination with the eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) method to explore whether neighborhood size affects household enrollment in GTGP. By comparing the results with and without ESF, we find that the ESF method can help account for spatial autocorrelation properly and reveal neighborhood impacts that are otherwise hidden, including the effects of area of forest enrolled in a concurrent PES program, gender and household size. The method canmore »thus uncover mechanisms previously undetected due to not taking into account neighborhood impacts and thus provides an additional way to account for neighborhood impacts in PES programs and other studies.« less
5. Reciprocal human-natural system feedback loops within the invasion process

   https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.62.52664  

   Sinclair, James S. ; Brown, Jeffrey A. ; Lockwood, Julie L. ( October 2020 , NeoBiota)

   Biological invasions are inextricably linked to how people collect, move, interact with and perceive non-native species. However, invasion frameworks generally do not consider reciprocal interactions between non-native species and people. Non-native species can shape human actions via beneficial or detrimental ecological and socioeconomic effects and people, in turn, shape invasions through their movements, behaviour and how they respond to the collection, transport, introduction and spread of non-natives. The feedbacks that stem from this ‘coupled human and natural system’ (CHANS) could therefore play a key role in mitigating (i.e. negative feedback loops) or exacerbating (i.e. positive feedback loops) ongoing and future invasions. We posit that the invasion process could be subdivided into three CHANS that span from the source region from which non-natives originate to the recipient region in which they establish and spread. We also provide specific examples of feedback loops that occur within each CHANS that have either reduced or facilitated new introductions and spread of established non-native species. In so doing, we add to exisiting invasion frameworks to generate new hypotheses about human-based drivers of biological invasions and further efforts to determine how ecological outcomes feed back into human actions.