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Analyses of evolutionary dynamics depend on how phylogenetic data are time-scaled. Most analyses of extant taxa assume a purely bifurcating model, where nodes are calibrated using the daughter lineage with the older first occurrence in the fossil record. This contrasts with budding, where nodes are calibrated using the younger first occurrence. Here, we use the extensive fossil record of bivalve molluscs for a large-scale evaluation of how branching models affect macroevolutionary analyses. We time-calibrated 91% of nodes, ranging in age from 2.59 to 485 Ma, in a phylogeny of 97 extant bivalve families. Allowing budding-based calibrations minimizes conflict between the tree and observed fossil record, and reduces the summed duration of inferred ‘ghost lineages’ from 6.76 billion years (Gyr; bifurcating model) to 1.00 Gyr (budding). Adding 31 extinct paraphyletic families raises ghost lineage totals to 7.86 Gyr (bifurcating) and 1.92 Gyr (budding), but incorporates more information to date divergences between lineages. Macroevolutionary analyses under a bifurcating model conflict with other palaeontological evidence on the magnitude of the end-Palaeozoic extinction, and strongly reduce Cenozoic diversification. Consideration of different branching models is essential when node-calibrating phylogenies, and for a major clade with a robust fossil record, a budding model appears more appropriate.
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Developmental bias, macroevolution, and the fossil record
Abstract A fuller understanding of the role of developmental bias in shaping large‐scale evolutionary patterns requires integrating bias (the probability distribution of variation accessible to an ancestral phenotype) with clade dynamics (the differential survival and production of species and evolutionary lineages). This synthesis could proceed as a two‐way exchange between the developmental data available to neontologists and the strictly phenotypic but richly historical and dynamic data available to paleontologists. Analyses starting in extant populations could aim to predict macroevolution in the fossil record from observed developmental bias, while analyses starting in the fossil record, particularly the record of extant species and lineages, could aim to predict developmental bias from macroevolutionary patterns, including the broad range of extinct phenotypes. Analyses in multivariate morphospaces are especially effective when coupled with phylogeny, theoretical and developmental models, and diversity–disparity plots. This research program will also require assessing the “heritability” of an ancestral bias across phylogeny, and the tendency for bias change in strength and orientation over evolutionary time. Such analyses will help find a set of general rules for the macroevolutionary effects of developmental bias, including its impact on and interactions with the other intrinsic and extrinsic factors governing the movement, expansion, and contraction of clades in morphospace.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1633535
- PAR ID:
- 10115059
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Evolution & Development
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 1-2
- ISSN:
- 1520-541X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 103-125
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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