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1. A data‐driven method for identifying the locations of hurricane evacuations from mobile phone location data

   https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14188  

   Washington, Valerie ; Guikema, Seth ; Mondisa, Joi‐Lynn ; Misra, Aditi ( August 2023 , Risk Analysis)

   How evacuations are managed can substantially impact the risks faced by affected communities. Having a better understanding of the mobility patterns of evacuees can improve the planning and management of these evacuations. Although mobility patterns during evacuations have traditionally been studied through surveys, mobile phone location data can be used to capture these movements for a greater number of evacuees over a larger geographic area. Several approaches have been used to identify hurricane evacuation patterns from location data; however, each approach relies on researcher judgment to first determine the areas from which evacuations occurred and then identify evacuations by determining when an individual spends a specified number of nights away from home. This approach runs the risk of detecting non‐evacuation behaviors (e.g., work trips, vacations, etc.) and incorrectly labeling them as evacuations where none occurred. In this article, we developed a data‐driven method to determine which areas experienced evacuations. With this approach, we inferred home locations of mobile phone users, calculated their departure times, and determined if an evacuation may have occurred by comparing the number of departures around the time of the hurricane against historical trends. As a case study, we applied this method to location data from Hurricanes Matthew and Irma to identify areas that experienced evacuations and illustrate how this method can be used to detect changes in departure behavior leading up to and following a hurricane. We validated and examined the inferred homes for representativeness and validated observed evacuation trends against past studies.

    

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2. Hurricanes overcome migration lag and shape intraspecific genetic variation beyond a poleward mangrove range limit

   https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15513  

   Kennedy, John Paul ; Dangremond, Emily M. ; Hayes, Matthew A. ; Preziosi, Richard F. ; Rowntree, Jennifer K. ; Feller, Ilka C. ( July 2020 , Molecular Ecology)

   Expansion of many tree species lags behind climate change projections. Extreme storms can rapidly overcome this lag, especially for coastal species, but how will storm‐driven expansion shape intraspecific genetic variation? Do storms provide recruits only from the nearest sources, or from more distant sources? Answers to these questions have ecological and evolutionary implications, but empirical evidence is absent from the literature. In 2017, Hurricane Irma provided an opportunity to address this knowledge gap at the northern range limit of the neotropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA. We observed massive post‐hurricane increases in beach‐strandedA. germinanspropagules at, and past, this species’ present day range margin when compared to a previously surveyed nonhurricane year. Yet, propagule dispersal does not guarantee subsequent establishment and reproductive success (i.e., effective dispersal). We also evaluated prior effective dispersal along this coastline with isolatedA. germinanstrees identified beyond the most northern established population. We used 12 nuclear microsatellite loci to genotype 896 hurricane‐driven drift propagules from nine sites and 10 isolated trees from four sites, determined their sources of origin, and estimated dispersal distances. Almost all drift propagules and all isolated trees came from the nearest sources. This research suggests that hurricanes are a prerequisite for poleward range expansion of a coastal tree species and that storms can shape the expanding gene pool by providing almost exclusively range‐margin genotypes. These insights and empirical estimates of hurricane‐driven dispersal distances should improve our ability to forecast distributional shifts of coastal species.

    

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3. Regional shifts in paleohurricane activity over the last 1500 years derived from blue hole sediments offshore of Middle Caicos Island.

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107126  

   Wallace, E. ( September 2021 , Quaternary science reviews)

   Coastal communities are vulnerable to sea-level rise and hurricane-induced flooding. Our ability to assess flooding risk at coastal locations is restricted by the short observational record and limited knowledge on storm surge generation during hurricanes of different strength, size and orientation. Here, we present a transect of sediment cores collected from a blue hole near Middle Caicos in the Turks & Caicos Islands. Storm deposits found across cores in the transect record the passage of hurricanes passing to the south of Middle Caicos over the past 1500 years including Hurricane Irma in 2017. The record indicates historically unprecedented multi-decadal periods of elevated storm strikes on the island. We add this new reconstruction to a compilation of near-annually resolved paleohurricane records of the past millennium in The Bahamas. This compilation indicates increased storm activity in The Bahamas from 650 to 800 CE, 930 to 1040 CE, and 1400 to 1800 CE. Taken together with compilations of published paleohurricane records from New England and the Gulf Coast of Florida, we observe periods of elevated hurricane activity in all three spatially disparate regions over the past millennium and periods when New England and the Bahama Archipelago are active while the Gulf Coast of Florida is not. We argue that both regional-scale changes in vertical wind shear patterns and shifting storm tracks may explain the discrepancies we observe between different regions of the North Atlantic. This research informs how hurricane frequency has changed over the past 1500 years specifically in the Turks & Caicos Islands and regionally along the Bahama Archipelago. 

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4. Location intelligence reveals the extent, timing, and spatial variation of hurricane preparedness

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-20571-3  

   Li, Bo ; Mostafavi, Ali ( December 2022 , Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Hurricanes are one of the most catastrophic natural hazards faced by residents of the United States. Improving the public’s hurricane preparedness is essential to reduce the impact and disruption of hurricanes on households. Inherent in traditional methods for quantifying and monitoring hurricane preparedness are significant lags, which hinder effective monitoring of residents’ preparedness in advance of an impending hurricane. This study establishes a methodological framework to quantify the extent, timing, and spatial variation of hurricane preparedness at the census block group level using high-resolution location intelligence data. Anonymized cell phone data on visits to points-of-interest for each census block group in Harris County before 2017 Hurricane Harvey were used to examine residents’ hurricane preparedness. Four categories of points-of-interest, grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies and home improvement stores, were identified as they have close relationship with hurricane preparedness, and the daily number of visits from each CBG to these four categories of POIs were calculated during preparation period. Two metrics, extent of preparedness and proactivity, were calculated based on the daily visit percentage change compared to the baseline period. The results show that peak visits to pharmacies often occurred in the early stage of preparation, whereas the peak of visits to gas stations happened closer to hurricane landfall. The spatial and temporal patterns of visits to grocery stores and home improvement stores were quite similar. However, correlation analysis demonstrates that extent of preparedness and proactivity are independent of each other. Combined with synchronous evacuation data, CBGs in Harris County were divided into four clusters in terms of extent of preparedness and evacuation rate. The clusters with low preparedness and low evacuation rate were identified as hotspots of vulnerability for shelter-in-place households that would need urgent attention during response. Hence, the research findings provide a new data-driven approach to quantify and monitor the extent, timing, and spatial variations of hurricane preparedness. Accordingly, the study advances data-driven understanding of human protective actions during disasters. The study outcomes also provide emergency response managers and public officials with novel data-driven insights to more proactively monitor residents’ disaster preparedness, making it possible to identify under-prepared areas and better allocate resources in a timely manner. 

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5. Coastal Flooding and Inundation and Inland Flooding due to Downstream Blocking

   https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7100336  

   Pietrafesa, Leonard J. ; Zhang, Hongyuan ; Bao, Shaowu ; Gayes, Paul T. ; Hallstrom, Jason O. ( October 2019 , Journal of Marine Science and Engineering)

   Extreme atmospheric wind and precipitation events have created extensive multiscale coastal, inland, and upland flooding in United States (U.S.) coastal states over recent decades, some of which takes days to hours to develop, while others can take only several tens of minutes and inundate a large area within a short period of time, thus being laterally explosive. However, their existence has not yet been fully recognized, and the fluid dynamics and the wide spectrum of spatial and temporal scales of these types of events are not yet well understood nor have they been mathematically modeled. If present-day outlooks of more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future are accurate, these coastal, inland and upland flood events, such as those due to Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Matthew (2016), Harvey (2017) and Irma (2017), will continue to increase in the future. However, the question arises as to whether there has been a well-documented example of this kind of coastal, inland and upland flooding in the past? In addition, if so, are any lessons learned for the future? The short answer is “no”. Fortunately, there are data from a pair of events, several decades ago—Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999—that we can turn to for guidance in how the nonlinear, multiscale fluid physics of these types of compound hazard events manifested in the past and what they portend for the future. It is of note that fifty-six lives were lost in coastal North Carolina alone from this pair of storms. In this study, the 1999 rapid coastal and inland flooding event attributed to those two consecutive hurricanes is documented and the series of physical processes and their mechanisms are analyzed. A diagnostic assessment using data and numerical models reveals the physical mechanisms of downstream blocking that occurred. 

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