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Abstract Climate change can impact plant fitness and population persistence directly through changing abiotic conditions and indirectly through its effects on species interactions. Pollination and seed predation are important biotic interactions that can impact plant fitness, but their impact on population growth rates relative to the role of direct climatic effects is unknown.We combined 13 years of experiments on pollen limitation of seed set and pre‐dispersal seed predation inIpomopsis aggregata, a subalpine wildflower, with a long‐term demographic study that has documented declining population growth with earlier spring snowmelt date. We determined how pollen limitation and seed predation changed with snowmelt date over 21 years and incorporated those effects into an integral projection model to assess relative impacts of biotic factors on population growth.Both pollen limitation and the difference in stigma pollen load between pollen‐supplemented and control plants declined over years. Neither pollen limitation nor seed predation changed detectably with snowmelt date, suggesting an absence of indirect effects of that specific abiotic factor on these indices of biotic interactions. The projected biotic impacts of pollen limitation and seed predation on population growth rate were small compared to factors associated with snowmelt date. Providing full pollination would delay the projected date when earlier snowmelt will cause populations to fall below replacement by only 14 years.Synthesis. Full pollination and elimination of seed predation would not compensate for the strong detrimental effects of early snowmelt on population growth rate, which inI. aggregataappears driven largely by abiotic environmental factors. The reduction over two decades in pollen limitation also suggests that natural selection on floral traits may weaken with continued climate change. These results highlight the value of studying both abiotic factors and biotic interactions to understand how climate change will influence plant populations.
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Early snowmelt projected to cause population decline in a subalpine plant
How climate change influences the dynamics of plant populations is not well understood, as few plant studies have measured responses of vital rates to climatic variables and modeled the impact on population growth. The present study used 25 y of demographic data to analyze how survival, growth, and fecundity respond to date of spring snowmelt for a subalpine plant. Fecundity was estimated by seed production (over 15 y) and also divided into flower number, fruit set, seeds per fruit, and escape from seed predation. Despite no apparent effects on flower number, plants produced more seeds in years with later snowmelt. Survival and probability of flowering were reduced by early snowmelt in the previous year. Based on demographic models, earlier snowmelt with warming is expected to lead to negative population growth, driven especially by changes in seedling establishment and seed production. These results provide a rare example of how climate change is expected to influence the dynamics of a plant population. They furthermore illustrate the potential for strong population impacts even in the absence of more commonly reported visual signs, such as earlier blooming or reduced floral display in early melting years.
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- PAR ID:
- 10129286
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 116
- Issue:
- 26
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 12901 to 12906
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820096116
