Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the intensity of earthquake ground motions within a period range of approximately 1–4 s, but the economic impacts of basin effects are uncertain. This paper estimates key economic indicators of seismic performance, expressed in terms of earthquake‐induced repair costs, using empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations that account for the effects of basins. The methodology used is general, but the estimates are made for a series of eight‐ to 24‐story residential reinforced concrete shear wall archetype buildings in Seattle, WA, whose design neglects basin effects. All buildings are designed to comply with code‐minimum requirements (i.e., reference archetypes), as well as a series of design enhancements, which include (a) increasing design forces, (b) decreasing drift limits, and (c) a combination of these strategies. As an additional reference point, a performance‐based design is also assessed. The performance of the archetype buildings is evaluated for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (2018 NSHM), which explicitly considers basin effects. Inclusion of basin effects results in an average threefold increase in annualized losses for all archetypes. Incorporating physics‐based ground motion simulations to represent the large‐magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard results in a further increase of 22% relative to the 2018 NSHM. The most effective of the design strategies considered combines a 25% increase in strength with a reduction in drift limits to 1.5%.
Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the damage expected during earthquakes. Unlike past earthquake design provisions, future ones are likely to consider basin effects, but the consequences of accounting for these effects are uncertain. This article quantifies the impacts of basin amplification on the collapse risk of 4- to 24-story reinforced concrete wall building archetypes in the uncoupled direction. These buildings were designed for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the ASCE 7-16 design provisions, which neglect basin effects. For ground motion map frameworks that do consider basin effects (2018 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model), the average collapse risk for these structures would be 2.1% in 50 years, which exceeds the target value of 1%. It is shown that this 1% target could be achieved by: (1) increasing the design forces by 25%, (2) decreasing the drift limits from 2.0% to 1.25%, or (3) increasing the median drift capacity of the gravity systems to exceed 9%. The implications for these design changes are quantified in terms of the cross-sectional area of the walls, longitudinal reinforcement, and usable floor space. It is also shown that the collapse risk increases to 2.8% when the results of physics-based ground motion simulations are used for the large-magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard. In this case, it is necessary to combine large changes in the drift capacities, design forces, and/or drift limits to meet the collapse risk target.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10133911
- Publisher / Repository:
- SAGE Publications
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earthquake Spectra
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 8755-2930
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1038-1073
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Summary Robust estimation of collapse risk should consider the uncertainty in modeling of structures as well as variability in earthquake ground motions. In this paper, we illustrate incorporation of the uncertainty in structural model parameters in nonlinear dynamic analyses to probabilistically assess story drifts and collapse risk of buildings. Monte Carlo simulations with Latin hypercube sampling are performed on ductile and non‐ductile reinforced concrete building archetypes to quantify the influence of modeling uncertainties and how it is affected by the ductility and collapse modes of the structures. Inclusion of modeling uncertainty is shown to increase the mean annual frequency of collapse by approximately 1.8 times, as compared with analyses neglecting modeling uncertainty, for a high‐seismic site. Modeling uncertainty has a smaller effect on drift demands at levels usually considered in building codes; for the same buildings, modeling uncertainty increases the mean annual frequency of exceeding story drift ratios of 0.03 by 1.2 times. A novel method is introduced to relate drift demands at maximum considered earthquake intensities to collapse safety through a joint distribution of deformation demand and capacity. This framework enables linking seismic performance goals specified in building codes to drift limits and other acceptance criteria. The distributions of drift demand at maximum considered earthquake and capacity of selected archetype structures enable comparisons with the proposed seismic criteria for the next edition (2016) of ASCE 7. Subject to the scope of our study, the proposed drift limits are found to be unconservative, relative to the target collapse safety in ASCE 7. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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