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1. Scalable Gaussian Process Inference with Finite-data Mean and Variance Guarantees

   Huggins, Jonathan H.; Campbell, Trevor; Kasprzak, Mikolaj; Broderick, Tamara (April 2019, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop a scalable approach to approximate GP regression, with finite-data guarantees on the accuracy of our pointwise posterior mean and variance estimates. Our main contribution is a novel objective for approximate inference in the nonparametric setting: the preconditioned Fisher (pF) divergence. We show that unlike the Kullback–Leibler divergence (used in variational inference), the pF divergence bounds bounds the 2-Wasserstein distance, which in turn provides tight bounds on the pointwise error of mean and variance estimates. We demonstrate that, for sparse GP likelihood approximations, we can minimize the pF divergence bounds efficiently. Our experiments show that optimizing the pF divergence bounds has the same computational requirements as variational sparse GPs while providing comparable empirical performance—in addition to our novel finite-data quality guarantees. 

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2. Non-asymptotic Performance Guarantees for Neural Estimation of f-divergences

   Sreekumar, Sreejith; Zhang, Zhengxin; Goldfeld, Ziv (January 2022, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   Statistical distances (SDs), which quantify the dissimilarity between probability distributions, are central to machine learning and statistics. A modern method for estimating such distances from data relies on parametrizing a variational form by a neural network (NN) and optimizing it. These estimators are abundantly used in practice, but corresponding performance guarantees are partial and call for further exploration. In particular, there seems to be a fundamental tradeoff between the two sources of error involved: approximation and estimation. While the former needs the NN class to be rich and expressive, the latter relies on controlling complexity. This paper explores this tradeoff by means of non-asymptotic error bounds, focusing on three popular choices of SDs—Kullback-Leibler divergence, chi-squared divergence, and squared Hellinger distance. Our analysis relies on non-asymptotic function approximation theorems and tools from empirical process theory. Numerical results validating the theory are also provided. 

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3. Pathfinder: Parallel quasi-Newton variational inference

   Zhang, Lu; Carpenter, B; Gelman, A.; Vehtari, A. (January 2022, Journal of machine learning research)

   We propose Pathfinder, a variational method for approximately sampling from differentiable probability densities. Starting from a random initialization, Pathfinder locates normal approximations to the target density along a quasi-Newton optimization path, with local covariance estimated using the inverse Hessian estimates produced by the optimizer. Pathfinder returns draws from the approximation with the lowest estimated Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to the target distribution. We evaluate Pathfinder on a wide range of posterior distributions, demonstrating that its approximate draws are better than those from automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and comparable to those produced by short chains of dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), as measured by 1-Wasserstein distance. Compared to ADVI and short dynamic HMC runs, Pathfinder requires one to two orders of magnitude fewer log density and gradient evaluations, with greater reductions for more challenging posteriors. Importance resampling over multiple runs of Pathfinder improves the diversity of approximate draws, reducing 1-Wasserstein distance further and providing a measure of robustness to optimization failures on plateaus, saddle points, or in minor modes. The Monte Carlo KL divergence estimates are embarrassingly parallelizable in the core Pathfinder algorithm, as are multiple runs in the resampling version, further increasing Pathfinder's speed advantage with multiple cores. 

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4. Non-asymptotic Performance Guarantees for Neural Estimation of f-Divergences

   Sreejith Sreekumar, Zhengxin Zhang (January 2021, Proeedings of the International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics)

   null (Ed.)

   Statistical distances (SDs), which quantify the dissimilarity between probability distri- butions, are central to machine learning and statistics. A modern method for esti- mating such distances from data relies on parametrizing a variational form by a neu- ral network (NN) and optimizing it. These estimators are abundantly used in prac- tice, but corresponding performance guar- antees are partial and call for further ex- ploration. In particular, there seems to be a fundamental tradeoff between the two sources of error involved: approximation and estimation. While the former needs the NN class to be rich and expressive, the latter relies on controlling complexity. This paper explores this tradeoff by means of non-asymptotic error bounds, focusing on three popular choices of SDs—Kullback- Leibler divergence, chi-squared divergence, and squared Hellinger distance. Our analysis relies on non-asymptotic function approxima- tion theorems and tools from empirical pro- cess theory. Numerical results validating the theory are also provided. 

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5. Discriminant Analysis under f-Divergence Measures

   https://doi.org/10.3390/e24020188  

   Dwivedi, Anmol; Wang, Sihui; Tajer, Ali (February 2022, Entropy)

   In statistical inference, the information-theoretic performance limits can often be expressed in terms of a statistical divergence between the underlying statistical models (e.g., in binary hypothesis testing, the error probability is related to the total variation distance between the statistical models). As the data dimension grows, computing the statistics involved in decision-making and the attendant performance limits (divergence measures) face complexity and stability challenges. Dimensionality reduction addresses these challenges at the expense of compromising the performance (the divergence reduces by the data-processing inequality). This paper considers linear dimensionality reduction such that the divergence between the models is maximally preserved. Specifically, this paper focuses on Gaussian models where we investigate discriminant analysis under five f-divergence measures (Kullback–Leibler, symmetrized Kullback–Leibler, Hellinger, total variation, and χ2). We characterize the optimal design of the linear transformation of the data onto a lower-dimensional subspace for zero-mean Gaussian models and employ numerical algorithms to find the design for general Gaussian models with non-zero means. There are two key observations for zero-mean Gaussian models. First, projections are not necessarily along the largest modes of the covariance matrix of the data, and, in some situations, they can even be along the smallest modes. Secondly, under specific regimes, the optimal design of subspace projection is identical under all the f-divergence measures considered, rendering a degree of universality to the design, independent of the inference problem of interest. 

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