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Title: Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Hurricane Wind Fields with Asymmetry

This article presents an azimuthally asymmetric gradient hurricane wind field model that can be coupled with hurricane-track models for engineering wind risk assessments. The model incorporates low-wavenumber asymmetries into the maximum wind intensity parameter of the Holland et al. wind field model. The amplitudes and phases of the asymmetries are parametric functions of the storm-translation speed and wind shear. Model parameters are estimated by solving a constrained, nonlinear least squares (CNLS) problem that minimizes the sum of squared residuals between wind field intensities of historical storms and model-estimated winds. There are statistically significant wavenumber-1 asymmetries in the wind field resulting from both storm translation and wind shear. Adding the translation vector to the wind field model with wavenumber-1 asymmetries further improves the model’s estimation performance. In addition, inclusion of the wavenumber-1 asymmetry resulting from translation results in a greater decrease in modeling error than does inclusion of the wavenumber-1 shear-induced asymmetry. Overall, the CNLS estimation method can handle the inherently nonlinear wind field model in a flexible manner; thus, it is well suited to capture the radial variability in the hurricane wind field’s asymmetry. The article concludes with brief remarks on how the CNLS-estimated model can be applied for simulating wind fields in a statistically generated ensemble.

 
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NSF-PAR ID:
10145604
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
American Meteorological Society
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Volume:
59
Issue:
4
ISSN:
1558-8424
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 687-705
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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