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What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main party opposed to the peace agreement). There was less support for peace in the Andean region than in other regions, and departments with lower support had higher unemployment and growth in GDP. Support for the opposition was the dominant covariate of decreasing support for the peace accords, while previous violence victimization increased the proportion of votes for peace. In light of these results, regional variation in baseline support for the agreements – a complex variable governed by partisan engagement but also influenced by structural economic factors – will be critical during implementation of the newly revised accords.
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Network Perspective on the Efficiency of Peace Accords Implementation
Civil wars are as frequent and debilitating now as ever. More often than not, their resolution consists of the negotiation of a peace accord that involves a number of provisions. Although previous work in political science indicates an underlying interdependence between provision implementation sequences, it is unclear how the structure and dynamics of this interdependence relate to the successful implementation of peace accords. To fill this gap, we systematically study peace processimplementationactivityfrom34peaceaccordscontaining 51 provisions negotiated between 1989 and 2015. We begin by constructing a bipartite network between peace accords and their provisions implementation and explore statistical properties of the structural underpinnings of peace processes. Then, we examine motifs (i.e., significantly frequent patterns) in provision implementation activity and uncover higher order correlations between provisions.Finally, we identify provision implementation sequences (i.e., meta-groups) that are most strongly associated with successful peace processes. Our empirical findings provide new insights for the implementation of peace accords by revealing temporal sequences of peace process implementation that help build confidence, enhance security, and ultimately prevent negative cascading effects in different stages of the peacebuilding process.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1755873
- PAR ID:
- 10148339
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the International Conference on Advances in Social Network Analysis and Mining
- ISSN:
- 2473-991X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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