An official website of the United States government
Abstract Understanding and predicting heatwave risk is a societal imperative in the face of climate change. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions impact heat extremes more strongly per unit of mean warming than do greenhouse gases, but the influence of aerosols’ evolving spatial pattern on time-varying heatwave hazard and resulting population exposure has been largely ignored. Aerosols’ spatially heterogeneous forcing is often co-located with population centers due to aerosols’ industrial sources and short atmospheric lifetime, potentially resulting in amplified exposure to aerosol-driven climate effects. Here, we quantify the influence of historical and projected future changes in aerosol emissions through 2100 on global patterns of heatwave hazard (i.e. the frequency of heatwave days) and exposure (i.e. population-weighted hazard) using the NCAR Community Earth System Model v1 single forcing large ensemble (LE). Our results show that increased aerosol emissions since 1920 have suppressed heatwave frequency (HWF) over populated regions by roughly half through present-day—a trend that is now reversing with shifting emission patterns and net global declining emissions. This may already be leading to an aerosol-driven acceleration in HWF, a signal that is amplified in populated regions. Aerosols’ influence on heatwaves is strongly co-located with population, creating out-sized exposure, which evolves through time with aerosols’ evolving emissions pattern within this LE. Our results suggest that near-term changes in aerosol emissions will be a disproportionate driver of trends in heatwave exposure, meriting dedicated future study, and that aerosols’ evolving spatial pattern should be considered in attempts to attribute recent heatwave trends to human activity.
more »
« less
Divergent global-scale temperature effects from identical aerosols emitted in different regions
Abstract The distribution of anthropogenic aerosols’ climate effects depends on the geographic distribution of the aerosols themselves. Yet many scientific and policy discussions ignore the role of emission location when evaluating aerosols’ climate impacts. Here, we present new climate model results demonstrating divergent climate responses to a fixed amount and composition of aerosol—emulating China’s present-day emissions—emitted from 8 key geopolitical regions. The aerosols’ global-mean cooling effect is fourteen times greater when emitted from the highest impact emitting region (Western Europe) than from the lowest (India). Further, radiative forcing, a widely used climate response proxy, fails as an effective predictor of global-mean cooling for national-scale aerosol emissions in our simulations; global-mean forcing-to-cooling efficacy differs fivefold depending on emitting region. This suggests that climate accounting should differentiate between aerosols emitted from different countries and that aerosol emissions’ evolving geographic distribution will impact the global-scale magnitude and spatial distribution of climate change.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1715557
- PAR ID:
- 10153577
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Biomass burning can affect climate via the emission of aerosols and their subsequent impact on radiation, cloud microphysics, and surface and atmospheric albedo. Biomass burning emissions (BBEs) over the boreal region have strongly increased during the last decade and are expected to continue increasing as the climate warms. Climate models simulate aerosol processes, yet historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations have no active fire component, and BBEs are prescribed as external forcings. Here, we show that CMIP6 used future boreal BBEs scenarios with unrealistic near-zero trends that have a large impact on climate trends. By running sensitivity experiments with ramped up boreal emissions based on observed trends, we find that increasing boreal BBEs reduces global warming by 12% and Arctic warming by 38%, reducing the loss of sea ice. Tropical precipitation shifts southward as a result of the hemispheric difference in boreal aerosol forcing and subsequent temperature response. These changes stem from the impact of aerosols on clouds, increasing cloud droplet number concentration, cloud optical depth, and low cloud cover, ultimately reducing surface shortwave flux over northern latitudes. Our results highlight the importance of realistic boreal BBEs in climate model simulations and the need for improved understanding of boreal emission trends and aerosol–climate interactions.more » « less
-
Underestimated Passive Volcanic Sulfur Degassing Implies Overestimated Anthropogenic Aerosol ForcingAbstract The Arctic is warming at almost four times the global rate. An estimated sixty percent of greenhouse‐gas‐induced Arctic warming has been offset by anthropogenic aerosols, but the contribution of aerosols to radiative forcing (RF) represents the largest uncertainty in estimating total RF, largely due to unknown preindustrial aerosol abundance. Here, sulfur isotope measurements in a Greenland ice core show that passive volcanic degassing contributes up to 66 ± 10% of preindustrial ice core sulfate in years without major eruptions. A state‐of‐the‐art model indicates passive volcanic sulfur emissions influencing the Arctic are underestimated by up to a factor of three, possibly because many volcanic inventories do not include hydrogen sulfide emissions. Higher preindustrial volcanic sulfur emissions reduce modeled anthropogenic Arctic aerosol cooling by up to a factor of two (+0.11 to +0.29 W m−2), suggesting that underestimating passive volcanic sulfur emissions has significant implications for anthropogenic‐induced Arctic climate change.more » « less
-
Abstract. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.more » « less
-
Abstract Existing global volcanic radiative aerosol forcing estimates portray the period 700 to 1000 as volcanically quiescent, void of major volcanic eruptions. However, this disagrees with proximal Icelandic geological records and regional Greenland ice-core records of sulfate. Here, we use cryptotephra analyses, high-resolution sulfur isotope analyses, and glaciochemical volcanic tracers on an array of Greenland ice cores to characterise volcanic activity and climatically important sulfuric aerosols across the period 700 to 1000. We identify a prolonged episode of volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions (751–940) dominated by Icelandic volcanism, that we term the Icelandic Active Period. This period commences with the Hrafnkatla episode (751–763), which coincided with strong winter cooling anomalies across Europe. This study reveals an important contribution of prolonged volcanic sulfate emissions to the pre-industrial atmospheric aerosol burden, currently not considered in existing forcing estimates, and highlights the need for further research to disentangle their associated climate feedbacks.more » « less
