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Title: An Observed Regime Shift in the Formation of Warm Core Rings from the Gulf Stream
Abstract

We present observational evidence that a significant regime change occurred around the year 2000 in the formation of Warm Core Rings (WCRs) from the Gulf Stream (GS) between 75° and 55°W. The dataset for this study is a set of synoptic oceanographic charts available over the thirty-eight-year period of 1980–2017. The upward regime change shows an increase to 33 WCRs per year during 2000–2017 from an average of 18 WCRs during 1980 to 1999. A seasonal analysis confirms May-June-July as the peak time for WCR births in agreement with earlier studies. The westernmost region (75°-70°W) is least ring-productive, while the region from 65°W to 60°W is most productive. This regime shift around 2000 is detected in WCR formation for all of the four 5-degree wide sub-regions and the whole region (75°-55°W). This might be related to a reduction of the deformation radius for ring formation, allowing unstable meanders to shed more frequent rings in recent years. A number of possible factors resulting in such a regime shift related to the possible changes in reduced gravity, instability, transport of the GS, large-scale changes in the wind system and atmospheric fluxes are outlined, which suggest new research directions. The increase in WCRs has likely had an impact on the marine ecosystem since 2000, a topic worthy for future studies.

 
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Award ID(s):
1657853
NSF-PAR ID:
10153655
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Nature Publishing Group
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Volume:
9
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2045-2322
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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  1. Abstract

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  2. Abstract

    Survival of Gulf Stream (GS) warm core rings (WCRs) was investigated using a census consisting of a total of 961 rings formed during the period 1980–2017. Kaplan‐Meier survival probability and Cox hazard proportional models were used for the analysis. The survival analysis was performed for rings formed in four 5° zones between 75° W and 55° W. The radius, latitude, and distance from the shelf‐break of a WCR at formation all had a significant effect on the survival of WCRs. A pattern of higher survival was observed in WCRs formed in Zone 2 (70°–65° W) or Zone 3 (65°–60° W) and then demised in Zone 1 (75°–70° W). Survival probability of the WCRs increased to more than70%for those formed within a latitude band from 39.5° to 41.5° N. Survival probability is reduced when the WCRs are formed near the New England Seamounts.

     
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  4. null (Ed.)
    Abstract As the Gulf Stream separates from the coast, it sheds both Warm and Cold Core Rings between $$75^\circ$$ 75 ∘ and $$55^\circ \,\hbox {W}$$ 55 ∘ W . We present evidence that this ring formation behavior has been asymmetric over both interannual and seasonal time-scales. After a previously reported regime-shift in 2000, 15 more Warm Core Rings have been forming yearly compared to 1980–1999. In contrast, there have been no changes in the annual formation rate of the Cold Core Rings. This increase in Warm Core Ring production leads to an excess heat transfer of 0.10 PW to the Slope Sea, amounting to 7.7–12.4% of the total Gulf Stream heat transport, or 5.4–7.3% of the global oceanic heat budget at $$30^\circ \,\hbox {N}$$ 30 ∘ N . Seasonally, more Cold Core Rings are produced in the winter and spring and more Warm Core Rings are produced in the summer and fall leading to more summertime heat transfer to the north of the Stream. The seasonal cycle of relative ring formation numbers is strongly correlated (r = 0.82) with that of the difference in upper layer temperatures between the Sargasso and Slope seas. This quantification motivates future efforts to understand the recent increasing influence of the Gulf Stream on the circulation and ecosystem in the western North Atlantic. 
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  5. This dataset consists of weekly trajectory information of Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings from 2000-2010. This work builds upon Silver et al. (2022a) ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6436380) which contained Warm Core Ring trajectory information from 2011 to 2020. Combining the two datasets a total of 21 years of weekly Warm Core Ring trajectories can be obtained. An example of how to use such a dataset can be found in Silver et al. (2022b).

    The format of the dataset is similar to that of  Silver et al. (2022a), and the following description is adapted from their dataset. This dataset is comprised of individual files containing each ring’s weekly center location and its area for 374 WCRs present between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. Each Warm Core Ring is identified by a unique alphanumeric code 'WEyyyymmddA', where 'WE' represents a Warm Eddy (as identified in the analysis charts); 'yyyymmdd' is the year, month and day of formation; and the last character 'A' represents the sequential sighting of the eddies in a particular year. Continuity of a ring which passes from one year to the next is maintained by the same character in the first sighting.  For example, the first ring in 2002 having a trailing alphabet of 'F' indicates that five rings were carried over from 2001 which were still observed on January 1, 2002. Each ring has its own netCDF (.nc) filename following its alphanumeric code. Each file contains 4 variables, “Lon”- the ring center’s weekly longitude, “Lat”- the ring center’s weekly latitude, “Area” - the rings weekly size in km2, and “Date” in days - representing the days since Jan 01, 0000. 

    The process of creating the WCR tracking dataset follows the same methodology of the previously generated WCR census (Gangopadhyay et al., 2019, 2020). The Jenifer Clark’s Gulf Stream Charts used to create this dataset are 2-3 times a week from 2000-2010. Thus, we used approximately 1560 Charts for the 10 years of analysis. All of these charts were reanalyzed between 75° and 55°W using QGIS 2.18.16 (2016) and geo-referenced on a WGS84 coordinate system (Decker, 1986). 

     

    Silver, A., Gangopadhyay, A, & Gawarkiewicz, G. (2022a). Warm Core Ring Trajectories in the Northwest Atlantic Slope Sea (2011-2020) (1.0.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6436380

    Silver, A., Gangopadhyay, A., Gawarkiewicz, G., Andres, M., Flierl, G., & Clark, J. (2022b). Spatial Variability of Movement, Structure, and Formation of Warm Core Rings in the Northwest Atlantic Slope Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans127(8), e2022JC018737. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018737 

    Gangopadhyay, A., G. Gawarkiewicz, N. Etige, M. Monim and J. Clark, 2019. An Observed Regime Shift in the Formation of Warm Core Rings from the Gulf Stream, Nature - Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48661-9. www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-48661-9.

    Gangopadhyay, A., N. Etige, G. Gawarkiewicz, A. M. Silver, M. Monim and J. Clark, 2020.  A Census of the Warm Core Rings of the Gulf Stream (1980-2017). Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, 125, e2019JC016033. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC016033.

    QGIS Development Team. QGIS Geographic Information System (2016).

    Decker, B. L. World Geodetic System 1984. World geodetic system 1984 (1986).

     

    Funded by two NSF US grants OCE-1851242, OCE-212328 {"references": ["Silver, A., Gangopadhyay, A, & Gawarkiewicz, G. (2022). Warm Core Ring Trajectories in the Northwest Atlantic Slope Sea (2011-2020) (1.0.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6436380", "Silver, A., Gangopadhyay, A., Gawarkiewicz, G., Andres, M., Flierl, G., & Clark, J. (2022b). Spatial Variability of Movement, Structure, and Formation of Warm Core Rings in the Northwest Atlantic Slope Sea.\u00a0Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,\u00a0127(8), e2022JC018737.\u00a0https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018737", "Gangopadhyay, A., G. Gawarkiewicz, N. Etige, M. Monim and J. Clark, 2019. An Observed Regime Shift in the Formation of Warm Core Rings from the Gulf Stream, Nature - Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48661-9. www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-48661-9.", "Gangopadhyay, A., N. Etige, G. Gawarkiewicz, A. M. Silver, M. Monim and J. Clark, 2020. A Census of the Warm Core Rings of the Gulf Stream (1980-2017). Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, 125, e2019JC016033. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC016033.", "QGIS Development Team. QGIS Geographic Information System (2016).", "Decker, B. L. World Geodetic System 1984. World geodetic system 1984 (1986)."]} 
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