Abstract In dryland ecosystems, vegetation within different plant functional groups exhibits distinct seasonal phenologies that are affected by the prevailing hydroclimatic forcing. The seasonal variability of precipitation, atmospheric evaporative demand, and streamflow influences root-zone water availability to plants in water-limited environments. Increasing interannual variations in climate forcing of the local water balance and uncertainty regarding climate change projections have raised the potential for phenological shifts and changes to vegetation dynamics. This poses significant risks to plant functional types across large areas, especially in drylands and within riparian ecosystems. Due to the complex interactions between climate, water availability, and seasonal plant water use, the timing and amplitude of phenological responses to specific hydroclimate forcing cannot be determined a priori , thus limiting efforts to dynamically predict vegetation greenness under future climate change. Here, we analyze two decades (1994–2021) of remote sensing data (soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI)) as well as contemporaneous hydroclimate data (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, depth to groundwater, and air temperature), to identify and quantify the key hydroclimatic controls on the timing and amplitude of seasonal greenness. We focus on key phenological events across four different plant functional groups occupying distinct locations and rooting depths in dryland SE Arizona: semi-arid grasses and shrubs, xeric riparian terrace and hydric riparian floodplain trees. We find that key phenological events such as spring and summer greenness peaks in grass and shrubs are strongly driven by contributions from antecedent spring and monsoonal precipitation, respectively. Meanwhile seasonal canopy greenness in floodplain and terrace vegetation showed strong response to groundwater depth as well as antecedent available precipitation (aaP = P − PET) throughout reaches of perennial and intermediate streamflow permanence. The timings of spring green-up and autumn senescence were driven by seasonal changes in air temperature for all plant functional groups. Based on these findings, we develop and test a simple, empirical phenology model, that predicts the timing and amplitude of greenness based on hydroclimate forcing. We demonstrate the feasibility of the model by exploring simple, plausible climate change scenarios, which may inform our understanding of phenological shifts in dryland plant communities and may ultimately improve our predictive capability of investigating and predicting climate-phenology interactions in the future.
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Deglacial water-table decline in Southern California recorded by noble gas isotopes
Constraining the magnitude of past hydrological change may improve understanding and predictions of future shifts in water availability. Here we demonstrate that water-table depth, a sensitive indicator of hydroclimate, can be quantitatively reconstructed using Kr and Xe isotopes in groundwater. We present the first-ever measurements of these dissolved noble gas isotopes in groundwater at high precision (≤0.005‰ amu−1; 1σ), which reveal depth-proportional signals set by gravitational settling in soil air at the time of recharge. Analyses of California groundwater successfully reproduce modern groundwater levels and indicate a 17.9 ± 1.3 m (±1 SE) decline in water-table depth in Southern California during the last deglaciation. This hydroclimatic transition from the wetter glacial period to more arid Holocene accompanies a surface warming of 6.2 ± 0.6 °C (±1 SE). This new hydroclimate proxy builds upon an existing paleo-temperature application of noble gases and may identify regions prone to future hydrological change.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1702704
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10154253
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Rationale Noble gases are widely used as physically based climate proxies, notably in dissolved water samples as tracers of past recharge temperature in groundwater and air–sea gas exchange processes in seawater. Recent advances in measuring large‐volume samples of dissolved noble gas isotopic ratios at high precision have expanded the range of climate parameters that can be interpreted.
Methods We build on prior methods for measuring noble gas stable isotopes at high precision with a new large‐volume equilibration (LVE) method wherein sample gases are equilibrated in the sample flask between the dissolved phase and the headspace. The original dissolved gas composition is determined by measuring the headspace gases and correcting for the equilibrium dissolved gas content of the discarded water using known solubilities and fractionation factors. We evaluate the accuracy and precision of this method with air‐equilibrated water standards of known noble gas composition.
Results Replicate air‐equilibrated water standards and field measurements demonstrate that the LVE method achieves comparable precision to prior methods, with major advantages of measuring the Ne content as a constraint on excess air and allowing for long‐term sample storage. Isotope ratios measured with the LVE method in replicate samples were consistent between two laboratories, and LVE elemental noble gas abundances agreed closely with replicate samples measured using established copper‐tube methods and static noble gas mass spectrometry.
Conclusions The new LVE method enables reconstruction of past water table depths at ±1 m precision along with excess air, recharge temperature, and age and hydrogeochemical indicators. It has wide application to investigating climate signals and physical gas exchange processes in groundwater and seawater.
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