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Abstract We investigate the linear trends in meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) since 1980 in atmospheric reanalysis datasets, coupled climate models, and atmosphere-only climate models forced with historical sea surface temperatures. Trends in AHT are decomposed into contributions from three components of circulation: (i) transient eddies, (ii) stationary eddies, and (iii) the mean meridional circulation. All reanalyses and models agree on the pattern of AHT trends in the Southern Ocean, providing confidence in the trends in this region. There are robust increases in transient-eddy AHT magnitude in the Southern Ocean in the reanalyses, which are well replicated by the atmosphere-only models, while coupled models show smaller magnitude trends. This suggests that the pattern of sea surface temperature trends contributes to the transient-eddy AHT trends in this region. In the tropics, we find large differences between mean-meridional circulation AHT trends in models and the reanalyses, which we connect to discrepancies in tropical precipitation trends. In the Northern Hemisphere, we find less evidence of large-scale trends and more uncertainty, but note several regions with mismatches between models and the reanalyses that have dynamical explanations. Throughout this work we find strong compensation between the different components of AHT, most notably in the Southern Ocean where transient-eddy AHT trends are well compensated by trends in the mean-meridional circulation AHT, resulting in relatively small total AHT trends. This highlights the importance of considering AHT changes holistically, rather than each AHT component individually.
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Linking midlatitudes eddy heat flux trends and polar amplification
Abstract Eddy heat fluxes play the important role of transferring heat from low to high latitudes, thus affecting midlatitude climate. The recent and projected polar warming, and its effects on the meridional temperature gradients, suggests a possible weakening of eddy heat fluxes. We here examine this question in reanalyses and state-of-the-art global climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere we find that the eddy heat flux has robustly weakened over the last four decades. We further show that this weakening emerged from the internal variability around the year 2000, and we attribute it to increasing greenhouse gases. In contrast, in the Southern Hemisphere we find that the eddy heat flux has robustly strengthened, and we link this strengthening to the recent multi-decadal cooling of Southern-Ocean surface temperatures. The inability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate such cooling prevents them from capturing the observed Southern Hemisphere strengthening of the eddy heat flux. This discrepancy between models and reanalyses provides a clear example of how model biases in polar regions can affect the midlatitude climate.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1745029
- PAR ID:
- 10154442
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Volume:
- 3
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2397-3722
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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