In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.
Based on observational data, this work examines the multi-time-scale feature of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability averaged in the whole North Atlantic Ocean (to be referred to as NASST), as well as its time-scale-dependent connections with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Traditionally, the NASST index is used to characterize the SST trend and multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic. This study found that superimposed on a prominent long-term trend, NASST is nonnegligible at subannual and interannual time scales, compared with that at decadal to multidecadal time scales. Spatially, the interannual variation of NASST is characterized by a horseshoe-like pattern of the SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Atlantic. It is mainly a lagged response to ENSO through the atmospheric bridge, and NAO plays a secondary role. At the subannual time scale, both ENSO and NAO play a role in generating the fluctuations of NASST and a horseshoe-like pattern in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, both the ENSO- and NAO-driven variations only explain a small fraction of the variances in both the interannual and subannual time scales. Thus, other factors unrelated to ENSO or NAO may play a more important role. The associated thermodynamical processes are similar at the two time scales; however, the dynamical processes have a significant contribution to the subannual component, but not to the interannual component. Thus, the SSTA averaged in the North Atlantic as a whole varies at different time scales and is associated with different mechanisms.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10158473
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 33
- Issue:
- 13
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 5547-5564
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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