Coastal rivers that build deltas undergo repeated avulsion events—that is, abrupt changes in river course—which we need to understand to predict land building and flood hazards in coastal landscapes. Climate change can impact water discharge, flood frequency, sediment supply, and sea level, all of which could impact avulsion location and frequency. Here we present results from quasi‐2D morphodynamic simulations of repeated delta‐lobe construction and avulsion to explore how avulsion location and frequency are affected by changes in relative sea level, sediment supply, and flood regime. Model results indicate that relative sea‐level rise drives more frequent avulsions that occur at a distance from the shoreline set by backwater hydrodynamics. Reducing the sediment supply relative to transport capacity has little impact on deltaic avulsions, because, despite incision in the upstream trunk channel, deltas can still aggrade as a result of progradation. However, increasing the sediment supply relative to transport capacity can shift avulsions upstream of the backwater zone because aggradation in the trunk channel outpaces progradation‐induced delta aggradation. Increasing frequency of overbank floods causes less frequent avulsions because floods scour the riverbed within the backwater zone, slowing net aggradation rates. Results provide a framework to assess upstream and downstream controls on avulsion patterns over glacial‐interglacial cycles, and the impact of land use and anthropogenic climate change on deltas.
Sea-level rise, subsidence, and reduced fluvial sediment supply are causing river deltas to drown worldwide, affecting ecosystems and billions of people. Abrupt changes in river course, called avulsions, naturally nourish sinking land with sediment; however, they also create catastrophic flood hazards. Existing observations and models conflict on whether the occurrence of avulsions will change due to relative sea-level rise, hampering the ability to forecast delta response to global climate change. Here, we combined theory, numerical modeling, and field observations to develop a mechanistic framework to predict avulsion frequency on deltas with multiple self-formed lobes that scale with backwater hydrodynamics. Results show that avulsion frequency is controlled by the competition between relative sea-level rise and sediment supply that drives lobe progradation. We find that most large deltas are experiencing sufficiently low progradation rates such that relative sea-level rise enhances aggradation rates—accelerating avulsion frequency and associated hazards compared to preindustrial conditions. Some deltas may face even greater risk; if relative sea-level rise significantly outpaces sediment supply, then avulsion frequency is maximized, delta plains drown, and avulsion locations shift inland, posing new hazards to upstream communities. Results indicate that managed deltas can support more frequent engineered avulsions to recover sinking land; however, there is a threshold beyond which coastal land will be lost, and mitigation efforts should shift upstream.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10171323
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 117
- Issue:
- 30
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 17584-17590
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Lowland deltas experience natural diversions in river course known as avulsions. River avulsions pose catastrophic flood hazards and redistribute sediment that is vital for sustaining land in the face of sea‐level rise. Avulsions also affect deltaic stratigraphic architecture and the preservation of sea‐level cycles in the sedimentary record. Here, we present results from an experimental lowland delta with persistent backwater effects and systematic changes in the rates of sea‐level rise and fall. River avulsions repeatedly occurred where and when the river aggraded to a height of nearly half the channel depth, giving rise to a preferential avulsion node within the backwater zone regardless of sea‐level change. As sea‐level rise accelerated, the river responded by avulsing more frequently until reaching a maximum frequency limited by the upstream sediment supply. Experimental results support recent models, field observations, and experiments, and suggest anthropogenic sea‐level rise will introduce more frequent avulsion hazards farther inland than observed in recent history. The experiment also demonstrated that avulsions can occur during sea‐level fall—even within the confines of an incised valley—provided the offshore basin is shallow enough to allow the shoreline to prograde and the river to aggrade. Avulsions create erosional surfaces within stratigraphy that bound beds reflecting the amount of deposition between avulsions. Avulsion‐induced scours overprint erosional surfaces from sea‐level fall, except when the cumulative drop in sea‐level is greater than the channel depth and less than the basin depth. Results imply sea‐level signals outside this range are removed or distorted in delta deposits.
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River deltas grow by repeating cycles of lobe development punctuated by channel avulsions, so that over time, lobes amalgamate to produce a composite landform. Existing models have shown that backwater hydrodynamics are important in avulsion dynamics, but the effect of lobe progradation on avulsion frequency and location has yet to be explored. Herein, a quasi‐2‐D numerical model incorporating channel avulsion and lobe development cycles is developed. The model is validated by the well‐constrained case of a prograding lobe on the Yellow River delta, China. It is determined that with lobe progradation, avulsion frequency decreases, and avulsion length increases, relative to conditions where a delta lobe does not prograde. Lobe progradation lowers the channel bed gradient, which results in channel aggradation over the delta topset that is focused farther upstream, shifting the avulsion location upstream. Furthermore, the frequency and location of channel avulsions are sensitive to the threshold in channel bed superelevation that triggers an avulsion. For example, avulsions occur less frequently with a larger superelevation threshold, resulting in greater lobe progradation and avulsions that occur farther upstream. When the delta lobe length prior to avulsion is a moderate fraction of the backwater length (0.3–
), the interplay between variable water discharge and lobe progradation together set the avulsion location, and a model capturing both processes is necessary to predict avulsion timing and location. While this study is validated by data from the Yellow River delta, the numerical framework is rooted in physical relationships and can therefore be extended to other deltaic systems. -
Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. ▪ There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. ▪ Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. ▪ Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. ▪ Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. ▪ River deltas globally might lose 5% (∼35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 51 is May 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.more » « less
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Abstract River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km2yr−1for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km2yr−1for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea‐level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85% of delta land loss will be caused by climate‐change driven sea‐level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5% of global delta land.
