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1. River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-093732  

   Nienhuis, Jaap H. ; Kim, Wonsuck ; Milne, Glenn A. ; Quock, Melinda ; Slangen, Aimée B.A. ; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E. ( May 2023 , Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)

   Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. ▪ There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. ▪ Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. ▪ Regional sea-level projectionsmore »have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. ▪ Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. ▪ River deltas globally might lose 5% (∼35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 51 is May 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.« less
2. Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4  

   Twilley, Robert R. ; Bentley, Samuel J. ; Chen, Qin ; Edmonds, Douglas A. ; Hagen, Scott C. ; Lam, Nina S.-N. ; Willson, Clinton S. ; Xu, Kehui ; Braud, DeWitt ; Hampton Peele, R. ; et al ( May 2016 , Sustainability Science)

   Abstract River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us tomore »test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p\0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and\0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).« less
3. Dominant process zones in a mixed fluvial–tidal delta are morphologically distinct

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-809-2020  

   Perignon, Mariela ; Adams, Jordan ; Overeem, Irina ; Passalacqua, Paola ( January 2020 , Earth Surface Dynamics)

   Abstract. The morphology of deltas is determined by the spatial extent and variability of the geomorphic processes that shape them. While in some cases resilient, deltas are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic forces, such as sea level rise and land use change, which can drastically alter the rates and patterns of sediment transport. Quantifying process patterns can improve our predictive understanding of how different zones within delta systems will respond to future change. Available remotely sensed imagery can help, but appropriate tools are needed for pattern extraction and analysis. We present a method for extracting information about the nature and spatial extent of active geomorphic processes across deltas with 10 parameters quantifying the geometry of each of 1239 islands and the channels around them using machine learning. The method consists of a two-step unsupervised machine learning algorithm that clusters islands into spatially continuous zones based on the 10 morphological metrics extracted from remotely sensed imagery. By applying this method to the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, we find that the system can be divided into six major zones. Classification results show that active fluvial island construction and bar migration processes are limited to relatively narrow zones along the main Ganges River and Brahmaputra and Meghnamore »corridors, whereas zones in the mature upper delta plain with smaller fluvial distributary channels stand out as their own morphometric class. The classification also shows good correspondence with known gradients in the influence of tidal energy with distinct classes for islands in the backwater zone and in the purely tidally controlled region of the delta. Islands at the delta front under the mixed influence of tides, fluvial–estuarine construction, and local wave reworking have their own characteristic shape and channel configuration. The method is not able to distinguish between islands with embankments (polders) and natural islands in the nearby mangrove forest (Sundarbans), suggesting that human modifications have not yet altered the gross geometry of the islands beyond their previous “natural” morphology or that the input data (time, resolution) used in this study are preventing the identification of a human signature. These results demonstrate that machine learning and remotely sensed imagery are useful tools for identifying the spatial patterns of geomorphic processes across delta systems.« less
4. Dominant process zones in a mixed fluvial-tidal delta are morphologically distinct

   Perignon, M. ; Adams, J. ; Overeem, I. ; Passalacqua, P. ( April 2020 , Earth surface dynamics discussions)

   The morphology of deltas is determined by the spatial extent and variability of the geomorphic processes that shape them. While in some cases resilient, deltas are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic forces, such as sea level rise and land use change, which can drastically alter the rates and patterns of sediment transport. Quantifying process patterns can improve our predictive understanding of how different zones within delta systems will respond to future change. Available remotely sensed imagery can help but appropriate tools are needed for pattern extraction and analysis. We present a method for extracting information about the nature and spatial extent of active geomorphic processes across deltas from ten parameters quantifying the geometry of each of 1239 islands and the channels around them using machine learning. The method consists of a two-step unsupervised machine learning algorithm that clusters islands into spatially continuous zones based on the ten morphological metrics extracted from remotely sensed imagery. By applying this method to the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, we find that the system can be divided into six major zones. Classification results show that active fluvial island construction and bar migration processes are limited to relatively narrow zones along the main Ganges River and Brahmaputramore »and Meghna corridors, whereas zones in the mature upper delta plain, with smaller fluvial distributary channels stand out as their own morphometric class. The classification also shows good correspondence with known gradients in the influence of tidal energy with distinct classes for islands in the backwater zone and in the purely tidally-controlled region of the delta. Islands at the delta front, under the mixed influence of tides, fluvial-estuarine construction, and local wave reworking have their own characteristic shape and channel configuration. The method does not distinguish between islands with embankments (polders) and natural islands in the nearby mangrove forest (Sundarbans), suggesting that human modifications have not yet altered the gross geometry of the islands beyond their previous natural morphology. These results demonstrate that machine learning and remotely sensed imagery are useful tools for identifying the spatial patterns of geomorphic processes across delta systems.« less
5. Quantifying river avulsion activity from satellite remote sensing: Implications for how avulsions contribute to floodplain stratigraphy in foreland basins

   https://doi.org/10.2110/jsr.2021.038  

   Valenza, Jeffery M. ; Edmonds, Douglas A. ; Weissmann, Gary S. ( June 2022 , Journal of Sedimentary Research)

   ABSTRACT The rarely witnessed process of river avulsion repositions channels across floodplains, which influences floodplain geomorphology and stratigraphic architecture. The way avulsions redirect water and sediment is typically generalized into one of two styles. Avulsions proceeding through rapid channel switching and producing little to no floodplain disturbance are annexational, while those that involve sequential phases of crevassing, flooding, and eventual development of a new channel are progradational. We test the validity of these avulsion style categories by mapping and characterizing 14 avulsion events in Andean, Himalayan, and New Guinean foreland basins. We use Landsat data to identify how avulsions proceed and interpret the possible products of these processes in terms of geomorphic features and stratigraphy. We show that during annexation the avulsion channel widens, changes its meander wavelength and amplitude, or increases channel thread count. During progradation, avulsion channels are constructed from evolving distributary networks. Often beginning as crevasse splays, these networks migrate down the floodplain gradient and frequently create and fill ponds during the process. We also see evidence for a recently defined third avulsion style. Retrogradation involves overbank flow, like progradation, but is marked by an upstream-migrating abandonment and infilling of the parent channel. Avulsion belts in thismore »study range from 5 to 60 km in length, and from 1 to 50 km in width. On average, these events demonstrate annexational style over 22.4% of their length. Eleven of 13 events either begin or end with annexation, and seven both begin and end with annexation. Only one event exhibited progradation over the entire avulsion-belt length. While there are many documented examples of purely annexational avulsions, we see little evidence for completely progradational or retrogradational avulsions, and instead suggest that a given avulsion is better envisioned as a series of spatiotemporal phases of annexation, progradation, and retrogradation. Such hybrid avulsions likely produce significantly greater stratigraphic variability than that predicted by the traditional end-member model. We suggest that a time-averaged, formation-scale consideration of avulsion products will yield more accurate characterizations of avulsion dynamics in ancient fluvial systems.« less