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1. Modeling Player Engagement with Bayesian Hierarchical Models

   Sawyer, R. ; Rowe, J. ; Azevedo, R. ; Lester, J. ( January 2018 , Proceedings of the Fourteenth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Interactive Digital Entertainment)

   Modeling player engagement is a key challenge in games. However, the gameplay signatures of engaged players can be highly context-sensitive, varying based on where the game is used or what population of players is using it. Traditionally, models of player engagement are investigated in a particular context, and it is unclear how effectively these models generalize to other settings and populations. In this work, we investigate a Bayesian hierarchical linear model for multi-task learning to devise a model of player engagement from a pair of datasets that were gathered in two complementary contexts: a Classroom Study with middle school students and a Laboratory Study with undergraduate students. Both groups of players used similar versions of Crystal Island, an educational interactive narrative game for science learning. Results indicate that the Bayesian hierarchical model outperforms both pooled and context-specific models in cross-validation measures of predicting player motivation from in-game behaviors, particularly for the smaller Classroom Study group. Further, we find that the posterior distributions of model parameters indicate that the coefficient for a measure of gameplay performance significantly differs between groups. Drawing upon their capacity to share information across groups, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an effective approach for modeling player engagement with data from similar, but different, contexts. 

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2. Towards Accessible Sports Broadcasts for Blind and Low-Vision Viewers

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3544549.3585610  

   Jain, Gaurav ; Hindi, Basel ; Courtien, Connor ; Wyrick, Conrad ; Xu, Xin Yi ; Malcolm, Michael C ; Smith, Brian A. ( April 2023 , Extended Abstracts of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems)

   Blind and low-vision (BLV) people watch sports through radio broadcasts that offer a play-by-play description of the game. However, recent trends show a decline in the availability and quality of radio broadcasts due to the rise of video streaming platforms on the internet and the cost of hiring professional announcers. As a result, sports broadcasts have now become even more inaccessible to BLV people. In this work, we present Immersive A/V, a technique for making sports broadcasts —in our case, tennis broadcasts— accessible and immersive to BLV viewers by automatically extracting gameplay information and conveying it through an added layer of spatialized audio cues. Immersive A/V conveys players’ positions and actions as detected by computer vision-based video analysis, allowing BLV viewers to visualize the action. We designed Immersive A/V based on results from a formative study with BLV participants. We conclude by outlining our plans for evaluating Immersive A/V and the future implications of this research. 

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3. Improved Retention Analysis in Freemium Role-Playing games by Jointly Modelling Players’ Motivation, Progression and Churn

   https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12730  

   Karmakar, Bikram ; Liu, Peng ; Mukherjee, Gourab ; Che, Hai ; Dutta, Shantanu ( August 2021 , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society)

   We consider user retention analytics for online freemium role-playing games (RPGs). RPGs constitute a very popular genre of computer-based games that, along with a player’s gaming actions, focus on the development of the player’s in-game virtual character through a persistent exploration of the gaming environment. Most RPGs follow the freemium business model in which the gamers can play for free but they are charged for premium add-on amenities. As with other freemium products, RPGs suffer from the curse of high dropout rates. This makes retention analysis extremely important for successful operation and survival of their gaming portals. Here, we develop a disciplined statistical framework for retention analysis by modelling multiple in-game player characteristics along with the dropout probabilities. We capture players’ motivations through engagement times, collaboration and achievement score at each level of the game, and jointly model them using a generalized linear mixed model (glmm) framework that further includes a time-to-event variable corresponding to churn. We capture the interdependencies in a player’s level-wise engagement, collaboration, achievement with dropout through a shared parameter model. We illustrate interesting changes in player behaviours as the gaming level progresses. The parameters in our joint model were estimated by a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm which incorporated a divide-and-recombine approach for increased scalability in glmm estimation that was needed to accommodate our large longitudinal gaming data-set. By incorporating the level-wise changes in a player’s motivations and using them for dropout rate prediction, our method greatly improves on state-of-the-art retention models. Based on data from a popular action based RPG, we demonstrate the competitive optimality of our proposed joint modelling approach by exhibiting its improved predictive performance over competitors. In particular, we outperform aggregate statistics based methods that ignore level-wise progressions as well as progression tracking non-joint model such as the Cox proportional hazards model. We also display improved predictions of popular marketing retention statistics and discuss how they can be used in managerial decision making.

    

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4. Exploring the Relationships Among Middle School Students’ Peer Interactions, Task Efficiency, and Learning Engagement in Game-Based Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878120907940  

   Moon, Jewoong ; Ke, Fengfeng ( March 2020 , Simulation & Gaming)

   Background. Middle school students’ math anxiety and low engagement have been major issues in math education. In order to reduce their anxiety and support their math learning, game-based learning (GBL) has been implemented. GBL research has underscored the role of social dynamics to facilitate a qualitative understanding of students’ knowledge. Whereas students’ peer interactions have been deemed a social dynamic, the relationships among peer interaction, task efficiency, and learning engagement were not well understood in previous empirical studies.

   Method. This mixed-method research implemented E-Rebuild, which is a 3D architecture game designed to promote students’ math problem-solving skills. We collected a total of 102 50-minutes gameplay sessions performed by 32 middle school students. Using video-captured and screen-recorded gameplaying sessions, we implemented behavior observations to measure students’ peer interaction efficiency, task efficiency, and learning engagement. We used association analyses, sequential analysis, and thematic analysis to explain how peer interaction promoted students’ task efficiency and learning engagement.

   Results. Students’ peer interactions were negatively related to task efficiency and learning engagement. There were also different gameplay patterns by students’ learning/task-relevant peer-interaction efficiency (PIE) level. Students in the low PIE group tended to progress through game tasks more efficiently than those in the high PIE group. The results of qualitative thematic analysis suggested that the students in the low PIE group showed more reflections on game-based mathematical problem solving, whereas those with high PIE experienced distractions during gameplay.

   Discussion. This study confirmed that students’ peer interactions without purposeful and knowledge-constructive collaborations led to their low task efficiency, as well as low learning engagement. The study finding shows further design implications: (1) providing in-game prompts to stimulate students’ math-related discussions and (2) developing collaboration contexts that legitimize students’ interpersonal knowledge exchanges with peers.

    

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5. Cannot Predict Comment Volume of a News Article before (a few) Users Read It

   Lihong He, Chen Shen ( January 2021 , Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media)

   null (Ed.)

   Many news outlets allow users to contribute comments on topics about daily world events. News articles are the seeds that spring users' interest to contribute content, i.e., comments. An article may attract an apathetic user engagement (several tens of comments) or a spontaneous fervent user engagement (thousands of comments). In this paper, we study the problem of predicting the total number of user comments a news article will receive. Our main insight is that the early dynamics of user comments contribute the most to an accurate prediction, while news article specific factors have surprisingly little influence. This appears to be an interesting and understudied phenomenon: collective social behavior at a news outlet shapes user response and may even downplay the content of an article. We compile and analyze a large number of features, both old and novel from literature. The features span a broad spectrum of facets including news article and comment contents, temporal dynamics, sentiment/linguistic features, and user behaviors. We show that the early arrival rate of comments is the best indicator of the eventual number of comments. We conduct an in-depth analysis of this feature across several dimensions, such as news outlets and news article categories. We show that the relationship between the early rate and the final number of comments as well as the prediction accuracy vary considerably across news outlets and news article categories (e.g., politics, sports, or health). 

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