Models of host–pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host–pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13‐month dataset of tree‐roosting Roost‐level features were not representative of tree‐level abundance (bats per tree) or tree‐level density (bats per m2or m3), with roost‐level models explaining minimal variation in tree‐level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree‐level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree‐level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host–pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.
The size of adult gypsy moths, ( We used male gypsy moths collected from pheromone traps at intervals through the flight season to assess phenological change in wing length. Consistent with a previous study conducted at our reference site, we found that wing length declines seasonally, likely resulting from phenological reduction in host foliage quality. This pattern was evident at our reference site over 8 years, and at our experimental sites with low‐density populations in 3 years. We assessed forest quality using two unique metrics, basal area of red oak (Quercus rubra), a high quality host tree, and a composite value generated from a published ranking of tree species quality for gypsy moth. We did not find a relationship between these metrics and wing length, although we found that the mean size of males was larger in stands with oak. Mean wing length in outbreak populations was significantly smaller reflecting density related processes such as intraspecific competition, although there was no significant seasonal effect on wing length.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10178329
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Agricultural and Forest Entomology
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1461-9555
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 390-400
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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