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1. A global perspective on the climate‐driven growth synchrony of neighbouring trees

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13090  

   Tejedor, Ernesto ; Serrano‐Notivoli, Roberto ; de Luis, Martin ; Saz, Miguel Angel ; Hartl, Claudia ; St. George, Scott ; Büntgen, Ulf ; Liebhold, Andrew M. ; Vuille, Mathias ; Esper, Jan ; et al ( March 2020 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Previous work demonstrated the global variability of synchrony in tree growth within populations, that is, the covariance of the year‐to‐year variability in growth of individual neighbouring trees. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the causes of this variability and its trajectories through time. Here, we examine whether climate can explain variation in within‐population synchrony (WPS) across space but also through time and we develop models capable of explaining this variation. These models can be applied to the global tree cover under current and future climate change scenarios.

   Global.

   1901–2012.

   Trees.

   We estimated WPS values from a global tree‐ring width database consisting of annual growth increment measurements from multiple trees at 3,579 sites. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to infer the drivers of WPS variability and temporal trends of global WPS. We then predicted WPS values across the global extent of tree cover. Finally, we applied our model to predict future WPS based on the RCP 8.5 (2045–2065 period) emission scenario.

   Areas with the highest WPS are characterized by a combination of environments with both high mean annual temperature (>10°C) and low precipitation (<300 mm). Average WPS across all temperate forests has decreased historically and will continue to decrease. Potential implications of these patterns include changes in forest dynamics, such as higher tree growth and productivity and an increase in carbon sequestration. In contrast, the WPS of tropical forests of Central and South America will increase in the near future owing to reduced annual precipitation.

   Climate explains WPS variability in space and time. We suggest that WPS might have value as an integrative ecological measure of the level of environmental stress to which forests are subjected and therefore holds potential for diagnosing effects of global climate change on tree growth.

    

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2. Modeling tree radial growth in a warming climate: where, when, and how much do potential evapotranspiration models matter?

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1292  

   Dannenberg, Matthew P ( July 2021 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Process-based models of tree-ring width are used both for reconstructing past climates and for projecting changes in growth due to climate change. Since soil moisture observations are unavailable at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, these models generally rely on simple water budgets driven in part by temperature-based potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates, but the choice of PET model could have large effects on simulated soil moisture, moisture stress, and radial growth. Here, I use four different PET models to drive the VS-Lite model and evaluate the extent to which they differ in both their ability to replicate observed growth variability and their simulated responses to projected 21st century warming. Across more than 1200 tree-ring width chronologies in the conterminous United States, there were no significant differences among the four PET models in their ability to replicate observed radial growth, but the models differed in their responses to 21st century warming. The temperature-driven empirical PET models (Thornthwaite and Hargreaves) simulated much larger warming-induced increases in PET and decreases in soil moisture than the more physically realistic PET models (Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith). In cooler and more mesic regions with relatively minimal moisture constraints to growth, the models simulated similarly small reductions in growth with increased warming. However, in dry regions, the Thornthwaite- and Hargreaves-driven VS-Lite models simulated an increase in moisture stress roughly double that of the Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith models, which also translated to larger simulated declines in radial growth under warming. While the lack of difference in the models’ ability to replicate observed radial growth variability is an encouraging sign for some applications (e.g. attributing changes in growth to specific climatic drivers), the large differences in model responses to warming suggest that caution is needed when applying the temperature-driven PET models to climatic conditions with large trends in temperature. 

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3. Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree‐ring records of ten globally distributed forests

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15934  

   Anderson‐Teixeira, Kristina J. ; Herrmann, Valentine ; Rollinson, Christine R. ; Gonzalez, Bianca ; Gonzalez‐Akre, Erika B. ; Pederson, Neil ; Alexander, M. Ross ; Allen, Craig D. ; Alfaro‐Sánchez, Raquel ; Awada, Tala ; et al ( October 2021 , Global Change Biology)

   Tree rings provide an invaluable long‐term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree‐ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3‐month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3‐month seasonal windows), with concave‐down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

    

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4. Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00650-8  

   Marqués, Laura ; Peltier, Drew M. P. ; Camarero, J. Julio ; Zavala, Miguel A. ; Madrigal-González, Jaime ; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel ; Ogle, Kiona ( June 2021 , Ecosystems)

   Legacies of past climate conditions and historical management govern forest productivity and tree growth. Understanding how these processes interact and the timescales over which they influence tree growth is critical to assess forest vulnerability to climate change. Yet, few studies address this issue, likely because integrated long-term records of both growth and forest management are uncommon. We applied the stochastic antecedent modelling (SAM) framework to annual tree-ring widths from mixed forests to recover the ecological memory of tree growth. We quantified the effects of antecedent temperature and precipitation up to 4 years preceding the year of ring formation and integrated management effects with records of harvesting intensity from historical forest management archives. The SAM approach uncovered important time periods most influential to growth, typically the warmer and drier months or seasons, but variation among species and sites emerged. Silver fir responded primarily to past climate conditions (25–50 months prior to the year of ring formation), while European beech and Scots pine responded mostly to climate conditions during the year of ring formation and the previous year, although these responses varied among sites. Past management and climate interacted in such a way that harvesting promoted growth in young silver fir under wet and warm conditions and in old European beech under drier and cooler conditions. Our study shows that the ecological memory associated with climate legacies and historical forest management is species-specific and context-dependent, suggesting that both aspects are needed to properly evaluate forest functioning under climate change.

    

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5. Biome Transition Along Elevational Gradients in New Mexico (SEON) Study: Flux Tower Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Quadrat Study at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

   https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/3e38dae78feeb17cbe5b8666ace0f1ab  

   Baur, Lauren ; Collins, Scott ; Muldavin, Esteban ; Rudgers, Jennifer A ; Pockman, William T. ( January 2021 , Environmental Data Initiative)

   The varied topography and large elevation gradients that characterize the arid and semi-arid Southwest create a wide range of climatic conditions - and associated biomes - within relatively short distances. This creates an ideal experimental system in which to study the effects of climate on ecosystems. Such studies are critical given that the Southwestern U.S. has already experienced changes in climate that have altered precipitation patterns (Mote et al. 2005), and stands to experience dramatic climate change in the coming decades (Seager et al. 2007; Ting et al. 2007). Climate models currently predict an imminent transition to a warmer, more arid climate in the Southwest (Seager et al. 2007; Ting et al. 2007). Thus, high elevation ecosystems, which currently experience relatively cool and mesic climates, will likely resemble their lower elevation counterparts, which experience a hotter and drier climate. In order to predict regional changes in carbon storage, hydrologic partitioning and water resources in response to these potential shifts, it is critical to understand how both temperature and soil moisture affect processes such as evaportranspiration (ET), total carbon uptake through gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and net ecosystem exchange of carbon, water and energy across elevational gradients. We are using a sequence of six widespread biomes along an elevational gradient in New Mexico -- ranging from hot, arid ecosystems at low elevations to cool, mesic ecosystems at high elevation to test specific hypotheses related to how climatic controls over ecosystem processes change across this gradient. We have an eddy covariance tower and associated meteorological instruments in each biome which we are using to directly measure the exchange of carbon, water and energy between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. This gradient offers us a unique opportunity to test the interactive effects of temperature and soil moisture on ecosystem processes, as temperature decreases and soil moisture increases markedly along the gradient and varies through time within sites. This dataset examines how different stages of burn affects above-ground biomass production (ANPP) in a mixed desert-grassland. Net primary production is a fundamental ecological variable that quantifies rates of carbon consumption and fixation. Estimates of NPP are important in understanding energy flow at a community level as well as spatial and temporal responses to a range of ecological processes. Above-ground net primary production is the change in plant biomass, represented by stems, flowers, fruit and foliage, over time and incorporates growth as well as loss to death and decomposition. To measure this change the vegetation variables in this dataset, including species composition and the cover and height of individuals, are sampled twice yearly (spring and fall) at permanent 1m x 1m plots. The data from these plots is used to build regressions correlating biomass and volume via weights of select harvested species obtained in SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data." This biomass data is included in SEV292, "Flux Tower Seasonal Biomass and Seasonal and Annual NPP Data." 

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