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1. Distributed, Automated Calibration of Agent-based Model Parameters and Agent Behaviors

   D'Auria, Matteo; Scott, Eric O.; Lather, Rajdeep Singh; Hilty, Javier; Luke, Sean (July 2020, Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS))

   Agent-based models can present special challenges to model calibration due in part to their high parameter count, tunable agent behaviors, complex emergent macrophenomena, and potentially long runtimes. However, due to this difficulty, these models are most often calibrated by hand, or with hand-coded optimization tools customized per-problem if at all. As simulations increase in complexity, we will require general-purpose, distributed model calibration tools tailored for the needs of agent-based models. In this paper, we present the results of a system we have developed which combines two popular tools, the MASON agent-based modeling toolkit, and the ECJ evolutionary optimization library. This system distributes the model calibration task over many processors, provides many stochastic optimization algorithms well suited to the calibration needs of agent-based models, and offers the ability to optimize not just model parameters but agent behaviors. 

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2. Agent-Based Modeling for Integrating Human Behavior into the Food–Energy–Water Nexus

   https://doi.org/10.3390/land9120519  

   Magliocca, Nicholas R. (December 2020, Land)

   null (Ed.)

   The nexus of food, energy, and water systems (FEWS) has become a salient research topic, as well as a pressing societal and policy challenge. Computational modeling is a key tool in addressing these challenges, and FEWS modeling as a subfield is now established. However, social dimensions of FEWS nexus issues, such as individual or social learning, technology adoption decisions, and adaptive behaviors, remain relatively underdeveloped in FEWS modeling and research. Agent-based models (ABMs) have received increasing usage recently in efforts to better represent and integrate human behavior into FEWS research. A systematic review identified 29 articles in which at least two food, energy, or water sectors were explicitly considered with an ABM and/or ABM-coupled modeling approach. Agent decision-making and behavior ranged from reactive to active, motivated by primarily economic objectives to multi-criteria in nature, and implemented with individual-based to highly aggregated entities. However, a significant proportion of models did not contain agent interactions, or did not base agent decision-making on existing behavioral theories. Model design choices imposed by data limitations, structural requirements for coupling with other simulation models, or spatial and/or temporal scales of application resulted in agent representations lacking explicit decision-making processes or social interactions. In contrast, several methodological innovations were also noted, which were catalyzed by the challenges associated with developing multi-scale, cross-sector models. Several avenues for future research with ABMs in FEWS research are suggested based on these findings. The reviewed ABM applications represent progress, yet many opportunities for more behaviorally rich agent-based modeling in the FEWS context remain. 

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3. An integrated framework of global sensitivity analysis and calibration for spatially explicit agent‐based models

   https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12837  

   Kang, Jeon‐Young; Michels, Alexander; Crooks, Andrew; Aldstadt, Jared; Wang, Shaowen (September 2021, Transactions in GIS)

   Abstract Calibration of agent‐based models (ABMs) is a major challenge due to the complex nature of the systems being modeled, the heterogeneous nature of geographical regions, the varying effects of model inputs on the outputs, and computational intensity. Nevertheless, ABMs need to be carefully tuned to achieve the desirable goal of simulating spatiotemporal phenomena of interest, and a well‐calibrated model is expected to achieve an improved understanding of the phenomena. To address some of the above challenges, this article proposes an integrated framework of global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and calibration, called GSA‐CAL. Specifically, variance‐based GSA is applied to identify input parameters with less influence on differences between simulated outputs and observations. By dropping these less influential input parameters in the calibration process, this research reduces the computational intensity of calibration. Since GSA requires many simulation runs, due to ABMs' stochasticity, we leverage the high‐performance computing power provided by the advanced cyberinfrastructure. A spatially explicit ABM of influenza transmission is used as the case study to demonstrate the utility of the framework. Leveraging GSA, we were able to exclude less influential parameters in the model calibration process and demonstrate the importance of revising local settings for an epidemic pattern in an outbreak. 

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4. Agent-based model construction using inverse reinforcement learning

   https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247872  

   Lee, K.; Rucker, M.; Scherer, W.; Beling, P.; Gerber, M.; Kang, H. (January 2017, 2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC))

   Agent-based modeling (ABM) assumes that behavioral rules affecting an agent's states and actions are known. However, discovering these rules is often challenging and requires deep insight about an agent's behaviors. Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) can complement ABM by providing a systematic way to find behavioral rules from data. IRL frames learning behavioral rules as a problem of recovering motivations from observed behavior and generating rules consistent with these motivations. In this paper, we propose a method to construct an agent-based model directly from data using IRL. We explain each step of the proposed method and describe challenges that may occur during implementation. Our experimental results show that the proposed method can extract rules and construct an agent-based model with rich but concise behavioral rules for agents while still maintaining aggregate-level properties. 

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5. A Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Approach for Agent-Based Modeling of Networked Anagram Games

   Liu, Xueying; Hu, Zhihao; Deng, Xinwei; Kuhlman, Chris J. (December 2022, Proceedings Winter Simulation Conference)

   In group anagram games, players cooperate to form words by sharing letters that they are initially given. The aim is to form as many words as possible as a group, within five minutes. Players take several different actions: requesting letters from their neighbors, replying to letter requests, and forming words. Agent-based models (ABMs) for the game compute likelihoods of each player’s next action, which contain uncertainty, as they are estimated from experimental data. We adopt a Bayesian approach as a natural means of quantifying uncertainty, to enhance the ABM for the group anagram game. Specifically, a Bayesian nonparametric clustering method is used to group player behaviors into different clusters without pre-specifying the number of clusters. Bayesian multi nominal regression is adopted to model the transition probabilities among different actions of the players in the ABM. We describe the methodology and the benefits of it, and perform agent-based simulations of the game. 

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