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Abstract We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1 bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross-fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the Mw 7.1. Together, the Ridgecrest mainshocks brought a 120 km long portion of the Garlock fault from 0.2 to 10 bars closer to failure. These results motivate our introduction of forecasts of future seismicity. Most attempts to forecast aftershocks use statistical decay models or Coulomb stress transfer. Statistical approaches require simplifying assumptions about the spatial distribution of aftershocks and their decay; Coulomb models make simplifying assumptions about the geometry of the surrounding faults, which we seek here to remove. We perform a rate–state implementation of the Coulomb stress change on focal mechanisms to capture fault complexity. After tuning the model through a learning period to improve its forecast ability, we make retrospective forecasts to assess model’s predictive ability. Our forecast for the next 12 months yields a 2.3% chance of an Mw≥7.5 Garlock fault rupture. If such a rupture occurred and reached within 45 km of the San Andreas, we calculate it would raise the probability of a San Andreas rupture on the Mojave section by a factor of 150. We therefore estimate the net chance of large San Andreas earthquake in the next 12 months to be 1.15%, or about three to five times its background probability.
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The July 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence Recorded by Creepmeters: Negligible Epicentral Afterslip and Prolonged Triggered Slip at Teleseismic Distances
Abstract We report sequential triggered slip at 271–384 km distances on the San Andreas, Superstition Hills, and Imperial faults with an apparent travel-time speed of 2.2 ± 0.1 km/s, following the passage of surface waves from the 4 July 2019 (17:33:49 UTC) Mw 6.4 and 6 July 2019 (03:19:53 UTC) Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. Slip on remote faults was not triggered instantaneously but developed over several minutes, increasing in duration with distance. Maximum slip amplitudes varied from 10 μm to 5 mm within minutes of slip nucleation, but on the southernmost San Andreas fault slip continued for two months and was followed on 16 September 2019 by a swarm of microearthquakes (Mw≤3.8) near Bombay Beach. These observations add to a growing body of evidence that fault creep may result in delayed triggered seismicity. Displacements across surface faults in the southern epicentral region and on the Garlock fault in the months following the Ridgecrest earthquakes were negligible (<1.1 mm), and they are interpreted to characterize surface strain adjustments in the epicentral region, rather than to result from discrete slip on surface faults.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1941558
- PAR ID:
- 10188493
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Seismological Research Letters
- Volume:
- 91
- Issue:
- 2A
- ISSN:
- 0895-0695
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 707 to 720
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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null (Ed.)ABSTRACT The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence culminated in the largest seismic event in California since the 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. Here, we combine geodetic and seismic data to study the rupture process of both the 4 July Mw 6.4 foreshock and the 6 July Mw 7.1 mainshock. The results show that the Mw 6.4 foreshock rupture started on a northwest-striking right-lateral fault, and then continued on a southwest-striking fault with mainly left-lateral slip. Although most moment release during the Mw 6.4 foreshock was along the southwest-striking fault, slip on the northwest-striking fault seems to have played a more important role in triggering the Mw 7.1 mainshock that happened ∼34 hr later. Rupture of the Mw 7.1 mainshock was characterized by dominantly right-lateral slip on a series of overall northwest-striking fault strands, including the one that had already been activated during the nucleation of the Mw 6.4 foreshock. The maximum slip of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake was ∼5 m, located at a depth range of 3–8 km near the Mw 7.1 epicenter, corresponding to a shallow slip deficit of ∼20%–30%. Both the foreshock and mainshock had a relatively low-rupture velocity of ∼2 km/s, which is possibly related to the geometric complexity and immaturity of the eastern California shear zone faults. The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake produced significant stress perturbations on nearby fault networks, especially along the Garlock fault segment immediately southwest of the 2019 Ridgecrest rupture, in which the coulomb stress increase was up to ∼0.5 MPa. Despite the good coverage of both geodetic and seismic observations, published coseismic slip models of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence show large variations, which highlight the uncertainty of routinely performed earthquake rupture inversions and their interpretation for underlying rupture processes.more » « less
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Abstract The Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes of July 2019 occurred within 34 hr of each other on conjugate strike-slip faults in the Mojave Desert, just north of the central Garlock fault. Here, we present the results of a survey of 18 Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) sites conducted in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, including five sites that recorded the motion of the second earthquake after having been set up immediately following the first, as well as processed results from continuous GNSS sites throughout the region. Our field work in response to the earthquakes provides additional constraints on the ground displacement due to both earthquakes, complementing data from a spatially sparser network of continuously recording GNSS sites in the area, as well as temporally sparser Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data that were able to capture a combined deformation signal from the two earthquakes.more » « less
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Abstract Observations of shallow fault creep reveal increasingly complex time‐dependent slip histories that include quasi‐steady creep and triggered as well as spontaneous accelerated slip events. Here we report a recent slow slip event on the southern San Andreas fault triggered by the 2017Mw8.2 Chiapas (Mexico) earthquake that occurred 3,000 km away. Geodetic and geologic observations indicate that surface slip on the order of 10 mm occurred on a 40‐km‐long section of the southern San Andreas fault between the Mecca Hills and Bombay Beach, starting minutes after the Chiapas earthquake and continuing for more than a year. Both the magnitude and the depth extent of creep vary along strike. We derive a high‐resolution map of surface displacements by combining Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar acquisitions from different lines of sight. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐derived displacements are in good agreement with the creepmeter data and field mapping of surface offsets. Inversions of surface displacement data using dislocation models indicate that the highest amplitudes of surface slip are associated with shallow (<1 km) transient slip. We performed 2‐D simulations of shallow creep on a strike‐slip fault obeying rate‐and‐state friction to constrain frictional properties of the top few kilometers of the upper crust that can produce the observed behavior.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190293
