The planning, design, and maintenance of stormwater infrastructure must be informed by changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. However, there is little consensus on how future climate information should be used, or how uncertainties introduced by use of different methods and datasets should be characterized or managed. These uncertainties exacerbate existing challenges to using climate information on local or municipal scales. Here we analyze major cities in the U.S., 48 of which developed climate adaptation and resilience plans. Given the prevalence of depth duration frequency (DDF) curves for planning infrastructure for rainfall, we then assessed the underlying climate information used in these 48 plans to show how DDF curves used for resilience planning and the resulting outcomes can be affected by stakeholders’ methodological choices and datasets. For rainfall extremes, many resilience plans varied by trend detection method, data preprocessing steps, and size of study area, and all used only one of the available downscaled climate projection datasets. We evaluate the implications of uncertainties across five available climate datasets and show the level of climate resilience to extreme rainfall depends on the dataset selected for each city. We produce risk matrices for a broader set of 77 U.S. citiesmore »
Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.
- Award ID(s):
- 1826161
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10192919
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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