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Abstract Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host–parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, thethermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments onAtelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by thethermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genusAtelopusthat are thought to be associated withB. dendrobatidisand reveal that these declines are best explained by thethermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.
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Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates
Disease outbreaks among wildlife have surged in recent decades alongside climate change, although it remains unclear how climate change alters disease dynamics across different geographic regions. We amassed a global, spatiotemporal dataset describing parasite prevalence across 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite combinations, compiling local weather and climate records at each location. We found that hosts from cool and warm climates experienced increased disease risk at abnormally warm and cool temperatures, respectively, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. This effect was greatest in ectothermic hosts and similar in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Projections based on climate change models indicate that ectothermic wildlife hosts from temperate and tropical zones may experience sharp increases and moderate reductions in disease risk, respectively, though the magnitude of these changes depends on parasite identity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2017785
- PAR ID:
- 10202383
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- Volume:
- 370
- Issue:
- 6519
- ISSN:
- 0036-8075
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. eabb1702
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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