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1. Large morphological transitions underlie exceptional shape diversification in an adaptive radiation

   Starr, Katherine; Sherratt, Emma; Sanger, Thomas (December 2024, Scientific reports)

   Adaptive radiations are characterized by an increase in species and/or phenotypic diversity as organisms fill open ecological niches. Often, the putative adaptive radiation has been studied without explicit comparison to the patterns and rates of evolution of closely related clades, leaving open the question whether notable changes in evolutionary process indeed occurred at the origin of the group. Anolis lizards are an oft-used model for investigating the tempo and mode of adaptive radiations. Most of the prior research on the diversification of Anolis morphology has focused on the post-cranium because of its significance towards subdivision of the arboreal habitat. But the remarkable diversity in head shape in anoles has not been as thoroughly investigated. It remains unknown whether the tempo or mode of head shape diversification changed as anoles diversified. We performed geometric morphometric analysis of skull shape across a sample of 12 Iguanian families (110 species), including anoles. Anolis lizards occupy a unique area and a wider region of morphological space compared to the 11 other families examined. We did not find a difference in the evolutionary rate of head shape diversification between anoles and their relatives. Rather, the extraordinary amount of skull diversity arose through a distinct mode of evolution; anoles moved into novel regions by relatively large morphological transitions across morphological space compared to their relatives. Our results demonstrate that traits not directly tied to the adaptive shift of a lineage into unique ecological spaces may undergo exceptional patterns of change as the clade diversifies. 

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2. Estimating Diversity Through Time Using Molecular Phylogenies: Old and Species-Poor Frog Families are the Remnants of a Diverse Past

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syz057  

   Billaud, O; Moen, D S; Parsons, T L; Morlon, H (September 2019, Systematic Biology)

   Abstract Estimating how the number of species in a given group varied in the deep past is of key interest to evolutionary biologists. However, current phylogenetic approaches for obtaining such estimates have limitations, such as providing unrealistic diversity estimates at the origin of the group. Here, we develop a robust probabilistic approach for estimating diversity through time curves and uncertainty around these estimates from phylogenetic data. We show with simulations that under various realistic scenarios of diversification, this approach performs better than previously proposed approaches. We also characterize the effect of tree size and undersampling on the performance of the approach. We apply our method to understand patterns of species diversity in anurans (frogs and toads). We find that Archaeobatrachia—a species-poor group of old frog clades often found in temperate regions—formerly had much higher diversity and net diversification rate, but the group declined in diversity as younger, nested clades diversified. This diversity decline seems to be linked to a decline in speciation rate rather than an increase in extinction rate. Our approach, implemented in the R package RPANDA, should be useful for evolutionary biologists interested in understanding how past diversity dynamics have shaped present-day diversity. It could also be useful in other contexts, such as for analyzing clade–clade competitive effects or the effect of species richness on phenotypic divergence. 

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3. Evolutionary origins of the prolonged extant squamate radiation

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34217-5  

   Brownstein, Chase D; Meyer, Dalton L; Fabbri, Matteo; Bhullar, Bhart-Anjan S; Gauthier, Jacques A (December 2022, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Squamata is the most diverse clade of terrestrial vertebrates. Although the origin of pan-squamates lies in the Triassic, the oldest undisputed members of extant clades known from nearly complete, uncrushed material come from the Cretaceous. Here, we describe three-dimensionally preserved partial skulls of two new crown lizards from the Late Jurassic of North America. Both species are placed at the base of the skink, girdled, and night lizard clade Pan-Scincoidea, which consistently occupies a position deep inside the squamate crown in both morphological and molecular phylogenies. The new lizards show that several features uniting pan-scincoids with another major lizard clade, the pan-lacertoids, in trees using morphology were convergently acquired as predicted by molecular analyses. Further, the palate of one new lizard bears a handful of ancestral saurian characteristics lost in nearly all extant squamates, revealing an underappreciated degree of complex morphological evolution in the early squamate crown. We find strong evidence for close relationships between the two new species and Cretaceous taxa from Eurasia. Together, these results suggest that early crown squamates had a wide geographic distribution and experienced complicated morphological evolution even while the Rhynchocephalia, now solely represented by the tuatara, was the dominant clade of lepidosaurs. 

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4. Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity.

   May, M.R.; Contreras, D.L.; Sundue, M.A.; Nagalingum, N.S.; Looy, C.V.; Rothfels, C.J. (March 2021, Systematic biology)

   Ryan Folk (Ed.)

   Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of ∼2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth–death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.] 

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5. Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syab020  

   May, Michael R; Contreras, Dori L; Sundue, Michael A; Nagalingum, Nathalie S; Looy, Cindy V; Rothfels, Carl J (March 2021, Systematic Biology)

   Folk, Ryan (Ed.)

   Abstract Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of $${\sim}$$2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth–death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.] 

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