skip to main content


Title: Mechanistic and Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Explain Human Behavior in Online Networked Group Anagram Games
In anagram games, players are provided with letters for forming as many words as possible over a specified time duration. Anagram games have been used in controlled experiments to study problems such as collective identity, effects of goal setting, internal-external attributions, test anxiety, and others. The majority of work on anagram games involves individual players. Recently, work has expanded to group anagram games where players cooperate by sharing letters. In this work, we analyze experimental data from online social networked experiments of group anagram games. We develop mechanistic and data driven models of human decision-making to predict detailed game player actions (e.g., what word to form next). With these results, we develop a composite agent-based modeling and simulation platform that incorporates the models from data analysis. We compare model predictions against experimental data, which enables us to provide explanations of human decision-making and behavior. Finally, we provide illustrative case studies using agent-based simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of models to provide insights that are beyond those from experiments alone.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1916670
NSF-PAR ID:
10204030
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the International Conference on Advances in Social Network Analysis and Mining
ISSN:
2473-991X
Page Range / eLocation ID:
357-364
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. In a group anagram game, players are provided letters to form as many words as possible. They can also request letters from their neighbors and reply to letter requests. Currently, a single agent-based model is produced from all experimental data, with dependence only on number of neighbors. In this work, we build, exercise, and evaluate enhanced agent behavior models for networked group anagram games under an uncertainty quantification framework. Specifically, we cluster game data for players based on their skill levels (forming words, requesting letters, and replying to requests), perform multinomial logistic regression for transition probabilities, and quantify uncertainty within each cluster. The result of this process is a model where players are assigned different numbers of neighbors and different skill levels in the game. We conduct simulations of ego agents with neighbors to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed methods. 
    more » « less
  2. Anagram games (i.e., word construction games in which players use letters to form words) have been researched for some 60 years. Games with individual players are the subject of over 20 published investigations. Moreover, there are many popular commercial anagram games such as Scrabble. Recently, cooperative team play of anagram games has been studied experimentally. With all of the experimental work and the popularity of such games, it is somewhat surprising that very little modeling of anagram games has been done to predict player behavior/actions in them. We devise a cooperative group anagram game and develop an agent-based modeling and simulation framework to capture player interactions of sharing letters and forming words. Our primary goals are to understand, quantitatively predict, and explain individual and aggregate group behavior, through simulations, to inform the design of a group anagram game experimental platform. 
    more » « less
  3. When modeling human behavior in multi-player games, it is important to understand heterogeneous aspects of player behaviors. By leveraging experimental data and agent-based simulations, various data-driven modeling methods can be applied. This provides a great opportunity to quantify and visualize the uncertainty associated with these methods, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of the individual and collective behaviors among players. For networked anagram games, player behaviors can be heterogeneous in terms of the number of words formed and the amount of cooperation among networked neighbors. Based on game data, these games can be modeled as discrete dynamical systems characterized by probabilistic state transitions. In this work, we present both Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for visualizing uncertainty in networked anagram games. These approaches help to elaborate how players individually and collectively form words by sharing letters with their neighbors in a network. Both approaches provide valuable insights into inferring the worst, average, and best player performance within and between behavioral clusters. Moreover, interesting contrasts between the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches can be observed. The knowledge and inferences gained from these approaches are incorporated into an agent-based simulation framework to further demonstrate model uncertainty and players’ heterogeneous behaviors. 
    more » « less
  4. In group anagram games, players cooperate to form words by sharing letters that they are initially given. The aim is to form as many words as possible as a group, within five minutes. Players take several different actions: requesting letters from their neighbors, replying to letter requests, and forming words. Agent-based models (ABMs) for the game compute likelihoods of each player’s next action, which contain uncertainty, as they are estimated from experimental data. We adopt a Bayesian approach as a natural means of quantifying uncertainty, to enhance the ABM for the group anagram game. Specifically, a Bayesian nonparametric clustering method is used to group player behaviors into different clusters without pre-specifying the number of clusters. Bayesian multi nominal regression is adopted to model the transition probabilities among different actions of the players in the ABM. We describe the methodology and the benefits of it, and perform agent-based simulations of the game. 
    more » « less
  5. Corlu, C. G. ; Hunter, S. R. ; Lam, H. ; Onggo, B. S. ; Shortle, J. ; Biller, B. (Ed.)
    Experiments that are games played among a network of players are widely used to study human behavior. Furthermore, bots or intelligent systems can be used in these games to produce contexts that elicit particular types of human responses. Bot behaviors could be specified solely based on experimental data. In this work, we take a different perspective, called the Probability Calibration (PC) approach, to simulate networked group anagram games with certain players having bot-like behaviors. The proposed method starts with data-driven models and calibrates in principled ways the parameters that alter player behaviors. It can alter the performance of each type of agent (e.g., bot) in group anagram games. Further, statistical methods are used to test whether the PC models produce results that are statistically different from those of the original models. Case studies demonstrate the merits of the proposed method. 
    more » « less