Our study evaluated the effectiveness of using eight pathways in combination for a complete to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by 2050. These pathways included renewable energy development; improving energy efficiency; increasing energy conservation; carbon taxes; more equitable balancing of human wellbeing and per capita energy use; cap and trade systems; carbon capture, utilization, and storage; and nuclear power development. We used the annual ‘British Petroleum statistical review of world energy 2021’ report as our primary database. Globally, fossil fuels, renewable (primarily hydro, wind and solar), nuclear energy accounted for 83%, 12.6%, and 6.3% of the total energy consumption in 2020. To achieve zero fossil fuel use by 2050, we found that renewable energy production will need to be increased by up to 6-fold or 8-fold if energy demand is held constant at, or increased 50% from, the 2020 energy demand level. Constraining 2050 world energy demand to a 25% increase over the 2020 level, improves the probability of achieving independence from fossil fuels. Improvements in energy efficiency need to accelerate beyond the current rate of ~1.5% per year. Aggressive application of energy conservation policies involving land use and taxation could potentially reduce world energy use by 10% or more by 2050. Our meta-analysis shows that the minimum level of per capita energy consumption that would allow 8 billion people to have a ‘Decent Living Standard’ is on average ~70 GJ per capita per year, which is 93% of the 2020 global average. Developed countries in temperate climates with high vehicle-dependency needed ~120 GJ per capita year−1, whereas equatorial countries with low vehicle-dependency needed 30 GJ per capita year−1. Our meta-analyses indicated replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy by 2050 may be possible but will require aggressive application of all eight pathways, major lifestyle changes in developed countries, and close cooperation among all countries.
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Comparative Analysis of Efficiencies for Renewable Energy Capacities across ISO Regions
This study investigates the renewable energy adoption across regions covered by Independent System Operators (ISOs) in the U.S. The study employed a deterministic model in the form of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to determine the performance of ten ISO regions over a five-year period from 2013 to 2017. Inputs into the model include the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets, fossil fuel capacity additions and the costs of capacity additions. Outputs from the model include renewable energy capacity additions and CO2 emissions per MWh of generated electricity. The results show the regions covered by CAISO, ERCOT, NE-ISO, SPP and the NON-ISO to be on the efficient frontier. For the regions not on the efficient frontier, the results identify their limitations and provide projections both for reductions in excess inputs and improvements in outputs to be on the efficient frontier. For example, we see that the regions covered by NY-ISO and PJM would require, on average, renewable energy capacity expansions of 593.65MW and 230.24MW, respectively, to be on the efficient frontier. These regions would require their average fossil capacity expansions to be limited to 234.83MW and 365.4MW respectively. These findings offer some guidance on approaches to improving the performance of these markets.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1847077
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10212939
- Editor(s):
- L. Cromarty, R. Shirwaiker
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IISE transactions
- ISSN:
- 2472-5854
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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