Abstract. Our work explores the impact of two important dimensions of landsystem changes, land use and land cover change (LULCC) as well as directagricultural reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from soils, on ozone(O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in terms of air quality overcontemporary (1992 to 2014) timescales. We account for LULCC andagricultural Nr emissions changes with consistent remote sensingproducts and new global emission inventories respectively estimating theirimpacts on global surface O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as well as Nrdeposition using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Over thistime period, our model results show that agricultural Nr emissionchanges cause a reduction of annual mean PM2.5 levels over Europe andnorthern Asia (up to −2.1 µg m−3) while increasing PM2.5 levels in India, China and the eastern US (up to +3.5 µg m−3). Land cover changes induce small reductions in PM2.5 (up to −0.7 µg m−3) over Amazonia, China and India due to reduced biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and enhanced deposition of aerosol precursor gases (e.g., NO2, SO2). Agricultural Nr emissionchanges only lead to minor changes (up to ±0.6 ppbv) in annual meansurface O3 levels, mainly over China, India and Myanmar. Meanwhile, ourmodel result suggests a stronger impact of LULCC on surface O3 over the time period across South America; the combination of changes in drydeposition and isoprene emissions results in −0.8 to +1.2 ppbv surfaceozone changes. The enhancement of dry deposition reduces the surface ozone level (up to −1 ppbv) over southern China, the eastern US and central Africa. The enhancement of soil NO emission due to crop expansion also contributes to surface ozone changes (up to +0.6 ppbv) over sub-Saharan Africa. Incertain regions, the combined effects of LULCC and agricultural Nr emission changes on O3 and PM2.5 air quality can be comparable (>20 %) to anthropogenic emission changes over the same time period. Finally, we calculate that the increase in global agricultural Nr emissions leads to a net increase in global land area (+3.67×106km2) that potentially faces exceedance of the critical Nr load (>5 kg N ha−1 yr−1). Our result demonstrates the impacts of contemporary LULCC and agricultural Nr emission changes on PM2.5 and O3 in terms of air quality, as well as the importanceof land system changes for air quality over multidecadal timescales.
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Extending Ozone‐Precursor Relationships in China From Peak Concentration to Peak Time
High ozone concentrations have become the major summertime air quality problem in China. Extensive in situ observations are deployed for developing strategies to effectively control the emissions of ozone precursors, that is, nitrogen oxides (NOX = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The modeling analysis of in situ observations often makes uses of the dependence of ozone peak concentration on NOXand VOC emissions, because ozone observations are among the most widely available air quality measurements. To extract more information from regulatory ozone observations, we extend the ozone‐precursor relationship to ozone peak time in this study. We find that the sensitivities of ozone peak time and concentration are complementary for regions with large anthropogenic emissions such as China. The ozone peak time is sensitive to both VOC and NOXemissions, and the sensitivity is nearly linear in the transition regime of ozone production compared to the changing ozone peak concentration sensitivity in this regime, making the diagnostics of ozone peak time particularly valuable. The extended ozone‐precursor relationships can be readily applied to understand the effects on ozone by emission changes of NOXand VOC and to assess potential biases of NOXand VOC emission inventories. These observation constraints based on regulatory ozone observations can complement the other measurement and modeling analysis methods nicely. Furthermore, we suggest that the ozone peak time sensitivity we discussed here to be used as a model evaluation measure before the empirical kinetic modeling approach (EKMA) diagram is applied to understand the effectiveness of emission control on ozone concentrations.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1743401
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10453532
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 125
- Issue:
- 22
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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