Building community resilience in the face of climate disasters is critical to achieving a sustainable future. Operational approaches to resilience favor systems’ agile return to the status quo following a disruption. Here, we show that an overemphasis on recovery without accounting for transformation entrenches ‘resilience traps’–risk factors within a community that are predictive of recovery, but inhibit transformation. By quantifying resilience including both recovery and transformation, we identify risk factors which catalyze or inhibit transformation in a case study of community resilience in Florida during Hurricane Michael in 2018. We find that risk factors such as housing tenure, income inequality, and internet access have the capability to trigger transformation. Additionally, we find that 55% of key predictors of recovery are potential resilience traps, including factors related to poverty, ethnicity and mobility. Finally, we discuss maladaptation which could occur as a result of disaster policies which emphasize resilience traps.
Measuring inequality in community resilience to natural disasters using large-scale mobility data
While conceptual definitions provide a foundation for the study of disasters and their impacts, the challenge for researchers and practitioners alike has been to develop objective and rigorous measures of resilience that are generalizable and scalable, taking into account spatiotemporal dynamics in the response and recovery of localized communities. In this paper, we analyze mobility patterns of more than 800,000 anonymized mobile devices in Houston, Texas, representing approximately 35% of the local population, in response to Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Using changes in mobility behavior before, during, and after the disaster, we empirically define community resilience capacity as a function of the magnitude of impact and time-to-recovery. Overall, we find clear socioeconomic and racial disparities in resilience capacity and evacuation patterns. Our work provides new insight into the behavioral response to disasters and provides the basis for data-driven public sector decisions that prioritize the equitable allocation of resources to vulnerable neighborhoods.
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10218768
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract -
Despite the rising importance of enhancing community resilience to disasters, our understandings on when, how and why communities are able to recover from such extreme events are limited. Here, we study the macroscopic population recovery patterns in disaster affected regions, by observing human mobility trajectories of over 1.9 million mobile phone users across three countries before, during and after five major disasters. We find that, despite the diversity in socio-economic characteristics among the affected regions and the types of hazards, population recovery trends after significant displacement resemble similar patterns after all five disasters. Moreover, the heterogeneity in initial and long-term displacement rates across communities in the three countries were explained by a set of key common factors, including the community’s median income level, population, housing damage rates and the connectedness to other cities. Such insights discovered from large-scale empirical data could assist policymaking in various disciplines for developing community resilience to disasters.
-
Quantifying the resilience of ecological communities to increasingly frequent and severe environmental disturbance, such as natural disasters, requires long-term and continuous observations and a research community that is itself resilient. Investigators must have reliable access to data, a variety of resources to facilitate response to perturbation, and mechanisms for rapid and efficient return to function and/or adaptation to post-disaster conditions. There are always challenges to meeting these requirements, which may be compounded by multiple, co-occurring incidents. For example, travel restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic hindered preparations for, and responses to, environmental disasters that are the hallmarks of resilient research communities. During its initial years of data collection, a diversity of disturbances—earthquakes, wildfires, droughts, hurricanes and floods—have impacted sites at which the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) intends to measure organisms and environment for at least 30 years. These events strain both the natural and human communities associated with the Observatory, and additional stressors like public health crises only add to the burden. Here, we provide a case-study of how NEON has demonstrated not only internal resilience in the face of the public health crisis of COVID-19, but has also enhanced the resilience of ecological research communities associated with the networkmore »
-
With the increasing frequency and severity of disasters resulting especially from natural hazards and impacting both infrastructure systems and communities, thus challenging their timely recovery, there is a strong need to prepare for more effective response and recovery. Communities have especially struggled to understand the aspects of recovery patterns for different systems and prepare accordingly. Therefore, it is essential to develop models that are able to measure and estimate the recovery trajectory for a certain community or infrastructure network given system characteristics and event information. The objective of the study is to deploy the Poisson Bayesian kernel model developed and tested in earlier work in risk analysis to measure the recovery rate of a system. In this paper, the model is implemented and tested on a resilience modeling case study of power systems. The model is validated using a comparison to other count data models such as Poisson generalized linear model and the negative binomial generalized linear model.
-
Abstract In recent years, extreme shocks, such as natural disasters, are increasing in both frequency and intensity, causing significant economic loss to many cities around the world. Quantifying the economic cost of local businesses after extreme shocks is important for post-disaster assessment and pre-disaster planning. Conventionally, surveys have been the primary source of data used to quantify damages inflicted on businesses by disasters. However, surveys often suffer from high cost and long time for implementation, spatio-temporal sparsity in observations, and limitations in scalability. Recently, large scale human mobility data (e.g. mobile phone GPS) have been used to observe and analyze human mobility patterns in an unprecedented spatio-temporal granularity and scale. In this work, we use location data collected from mobile phones to estimate and analyze the causal impact of hurricanes on business performance. To quantify the causal impact of the disaster, we use a Bayesian structural time series model to predict the counterfactual performances of affected businesses ( what if the disaster did not occur? ), which may use performances of other businesses outside the disaster areas as covariates. The method is tested to quantify the resilience of 635 businesses across 9 categories in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. Furthermore,more »
