Abstract The ongoing agrarian transition from smallholder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture promoted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) often aims to increase crop yields through the expansion of irrigation. LSLAs are playing an increasingly prominent role in this transition. Yet it remains unknown whether foreign LSLAs by agribusinesses target areas based on specific hydrological conditions and whether these investments compete with the water needs of existing local users. Here we combine process-based crop and hydrological modelling, agricultural statistics, and georeferenced information on individual transnational LSLAs to evaluate emergence of water scarcity associated with LSLAs. While conditions of blue water scarcity already existed prior to land acquisitions, these deals substantially exacerbate blue water scarcity through both the adoption of water-intensive crops and the expansion of irrigated cultivation. These effects lead to new rival water uses in 105 of the 160 studied LSLAs (67% of the acquired land). Combined with our findings that investors target land with preferential access to surface and groundwater resources to support irrigation, this suggests that LSLAs often appropriate water resources to the detriment of local users.
more »
« less
Energy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition
The ongoing agrarian transition from small-holder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture is reshaping systems of production and human well-being in many regions. A fundamental part of this global transition is manifested in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) by agribusinesses. Its energy implications, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess the multi-dimensional changes in fossil-fuel-based energy demand resulting from this agrarian transition. We focus on LSLAs by comparing two scenarios of low-input and high-input agricultural practices, exemplifying systems of production in place before and after the agrarian transition. A shift to high-input crop production requires industrial fertilizer application, mechanization of farming practices and irrigation, which increases by ~5 times fossil-fuel-based energy consumption compared to low-input agriculture. Given the high energy and carbon footprints of LSLAs and concerns over local energy access, our analysis highlights the need for an approach that prioritizes local resource access and incorporates energy-intensity analyses in land use governance.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10222392
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The Southeastern United States has high landscape heterogeneity, with heavily managed forestlands, developed agriculture, and multiple metropolitan areas. The spatial pattern of land use is dynamic. Expansion of urban areas convert forested and agricultural land, scrub forests are converted to citrus groves, and some croplands transition to pine plantations. Previous studies have recognized that forest management is the predominant factor in structural and functional changes forests, but little is known about how forest management practices interact with surrounding land uses at the regional scale. The first step in studying the spatial relationships of forest management with surrounding landscapes is to be able to map management practices and describe their proximity to various land uses. There are two major difficulties in generating land use and land management maps at the regional scale by any method: the necessity of large training data sets and expensive computation. The combination of crowdsourced, citizen-science mapping and cloud-based computing may help overcome those difficulties. In this study, OpenStreetMap is incorporated into mapping land use and shows great potential for justifying and monitoring land use at a regional scale. Google Earth Engine enables large-scale spatial analysis and imagery processing by providing a variety of Earth observation datasets and computational resources. By incorporating the OpenStreetMap dataset into Earth observation images to map forest land management practices and determine the distribution of other nearby land uses, we develop a robust regional land-use mapping approach and describe the patterns of how different land uses may affect forest management and vice versa . We find that cropland is more likely to be near ecological forest management patches; few close spatial relationships exist between land uses and preservation forest management, which fulfills the preservation management strategy of sustaining the forests, and production forests have the strongest spatial relationships with croplands. This approach leads to increased understanding of land-use patterns and management practices at local to regional scales.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy technology can play a key role in decreasing the amount of carbon emissions associated with electrical energy production, while also providing an economically justifiable alternative to fossil fuel production. Solar energy technology is also extremely flexible in terms of the size and siting of technological development. Large scale PV farms, however, require access to large tracts of land, which can create community-scale conflict over siting solar energy development projects. While previous scholarship offers frameworks for understanding the mechanisms at play in socio-technological system transitions, including the renewable energy transition, those frameworks fail to center community priorities, values, and concerns, and therefore often do not provide an effective means of addressing community conflict over solar siting. This paper provides a conceptual exploration of how a proposed framework can guide decision making for solar development across multiple scales and settings, while also illuminating the potential barriers and bottlenecks that may limit the potential of solar energy development to occur in scales and forms that receive community acceptance and at the pace necessary to address the greenhouse gas emissions currently contributing to the rapidly changing global climate.more » « less
-
Our study evaluated the effectiveness of using eight pathways in combination for a complete to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by 2050. These pathways included renewable energy development; improving energy efficiency; increasing energy conservation; carbon taxes; more equitable balancing of human wellbeing and per capita energy use; cap and trade systems; carbon capture, utilization, and storage; and nuclear power development. We used the annual ‘British Petroleum statistical review of world energy 2021’ report as our primary database. Globally, fossil fuels, renewable (primarily hydro, wind and solar), nuclear energy accounted for 83%, 12.6%, and 6.3% of the total energy consumption in 2020. To achieve zero fossil fuel use by 2050, we found that renewable energy production will need to be increased by up to 6-fold or 8-fold if energy demand is held constant at, or increased 50% from, the 2020 energy demand level. Constraining 2050 world energy demand to a 25% increase over the 2020 level, improves the probability of achieving independence from fossil fuels. Improvements in energy efficiency need to accelerate beyond the current rate of ~1.5% per year. Aggressive application of energy conservation policies involving land use and taxation could potentially reduce world energy use by 10% or more by 2050. Our meta-analysis shows that the minimum level of per capita energy consumption that would allow 8 billion people to have a ‘Decent Living Standard’ is on average ~70 GJ per capita per year, which is 93% of the 2020 global average. Developed countries in temperate climates with high vehicle-dependency needed ~120 GJ per capita year−1, whereas equatorial countries with low vehicle-dependency needed 30 GJ per capita year−1. Our meta-analyses indicated replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy by 2050 may be possible but will require aggressive application of all eight pathways, major lifestyle changes in developed countries, and close cooperation among all countries.more » « less
-
more » « less
ABSTRACT Identifying and treating erosion‐prone, critical source areas (CSA) presents the opportunity to effectively address erosion at a watershed scale. Social and financial drivers of conservation adoption, however have buffered implementation. An integrated systems understanding is needed to identify internal feedbacks and potential synergistic conservation policies. We simulate the physical, social, and financial incentive interactions with a high‐level system dynamics model to understand the conservation adoption and subsequent erosion behavior of the system. A Bass diffusion model integrated with physical modeling results enables the simulation of CSA, the diffusion of innovations, and payment for conservation practices. Land retirement and tillage reduction best management practices are assessed for the dryland wheat farming region in the Inland Pacific Northwest of the United States. Model utility was confirmed with quantitative land management data and qualitative local expertise. Historical, voluntary‐based efforts to reduce erosion suffer marginal returns. We conclude that: (1) All targeting of CSA reduces long‐term erosion rates; (2) The most effective use of conservation funds, however, occurs when the diffusion of innovation mechanism is reinforced by broad‐scale payments for tillage reduction; and (3) By identifying and utilizing positive feedback, our simulations suggest large gains in erosion reduction and conservation fund efficiency are possible.
