A rapidly changing climate has the potential to interfere with the timing of environmental cues that ectothermic organisms rely on to initiate and regulate life history events. Short‐lived ectotherms that exhibit plasticity in their life history could increase the number of generations per year under warming climate. If many individuals successfully complete an additional generation, the population experiences an additional opportunity to grow, and a warming climate could lead to a demographic bonanza. However, these plastic responses could become maladaptive in temperate regions, where a warmer climate could trigger a developmental pathway that cannot be completed within the growing season, referred to as a developmental trap. Here we incorporated detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models to evaluate these demographic consequences of phenological shifts due to a warming climate on the formerly widespread, multivoltine butterfly (
Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long‐standing quest in ecology, with ever‐increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long‐term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10449602
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 27
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1927-1941
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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