Coastal rivers that build deltas undergo repeated avulsion events—that is, abrupt changes in river course—which we need to understand to predict land building and flood hazards in coastal landscapes. Climate change can impact water discharge, flood frequency, sediment supply, and sea level, all of which could impact avulsion location and frequency. Here we present results from quasi‐2D morphodynamic simulations of repeated delta‐lobe construction and avulsion to explore how avulsion location and frequency are affected by changes in relative sea level, sediment supply, and flood regime. Model results indicate that relative sea‐level rise drives more frequent avulsions that occur at a distance from the shoreline set by backwater hydrodynamics. Reducing the sediment supply relative to transport capacity has little impact on deltaic avulsions, because, despite incision in the upstream trunk channel, deltas can still aggrade as a result of progradation. However, increasing the sediment supply relative to transport capacity can shift avulsions upstream of the backwater zone because aggradation in the trunk channel outpaces progradation‐induced delta aggradation. Increasing frequency of overbank floods causes less frequent avulsions because floods scour the riverbed within the backwater zone, slowing net aggradation rates. Results provide a framework to assess upstream and downstream controls on avulsion patterns over glacial‐interglacial cycles, and the impact of land use and anthropogenic climate change on deltas.
It is widely recognized that waves inhibit river mouth progradation and reduce the avulsion timescale of deltaic channels. Nevertheless, those effects may not apply to downdrift‐deflected channels. In this study, we developed a coupled model to explore the effects of wave climate asymmetry and alongshore sediment bypassing on shoreline‐channel morphodynamics. The shoreline position and channel trajectory are simulated using a “shoreline” module which drives the evolution of the river profile in a “channel” module by updating the position of river mouth boundary, whereas the channel module provides the sediment load to river mouth for the “shoreline” module. The numerical results show that regional alongshore sediment transport driven by an asymmetric wave climate can enhance the progradation of deltaic channels if sediment bypassing of the river mouth is limited, which is different from the common assumption that waves inhibit delta progradation. As such, waves can have a trade‐off effect on river mouth progradation that can further influence riverbed aggradation and channel avulsion. This trade‐off effect of waves is dictated by the net alongshore sediment transport, sediment bypassing at the river mouth, and wave diffusivity. Based on the numerical results, we further propose a dimensionless parameter that includes fluvial and alongshore sediment supply relative to wave diffusivity to predict the progradation and aggradation rates and avulsion timescale of deltaic channels. The improved understanding of progradation, aggradation, and avulsion timescale of deltaic channels has important implications for engineering and predicting deltaic wetland creation, particularly under changing water and sediment input to deltaic systems.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1810855
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10447377
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 56
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
River deltas grow by repeating cycles of lobe development punctuated by channel avulsions, so that over time, lobes amalgamate to produce a composite landform. Existing models have shown that backwater hydrodynamics are important in avulsion dynamics, but the effect of lobe progradation on avulsion frequency and location has yet to be explored. Herein, a quasi‐2‐D numerical model incorporating channel avulsion and lobe development cycles is developed. The model is validated by the well‐constrained case of a prograding lobe on the Yellow River delta, China. It is determined that with lobe progradation, avulsion frequency decreases, and avulsion length increases, relative to conditions where a delta lobe does not prograde. Lobe progradation lowers the channel bed gradient, which results in channel aggradation over the delta topset that is focused farther upstream, shifting the avulsion location upstream. Furthermore, the frequency and location of channel avulsions are sensitive to the threshold in channel bed superelevation that triggers an avulsion. For example, avulsions occur less frequently with a larger superelevation threshold, resulting in greater lobe progradation and avulsions that occur farther upstream. When the delta lobe length prior to avulsion is a moderate fraction of the backwater length (0.3–
), the interplay between variable water discharge and lobe progradation together set the avulsion location, and a model capturing both processes is necessary to predict avulsion timing and location. While this study is validated by data from the Yellow River delta, the numerical framework is rooted in physical relationships and can therefore be extended to other deltaic systems. -
null (Ed.)Abstract. We investigate the controls upon the shape of freely extending spits using a one-contour-line model of shoreline evolution. In contrast to existing frameworks that suggest that spits are oriented in the direction of alongshore sediment transport and that wave refraction around the spit end is the primary cause of recurving, our results suggest that spit shoreline shapes are perhaps best understood as graded features arising from a complex interplay between distinct morphodynamic elements: the headland updrift of the spit, the erosive "neck" (which may be overwashing), and the depositional "hook". Between the neck and the hook lies a downdrift-migrating "fulcrum point" which tends towards a steady-state trajectory set by the angle of maximum alongshore sediment transport. Model results demonstrate that wave climate characteristics affect spit growth; however, we find that the rate of headland retreat exerts a dominant control on spit shape, orientation, and progradation rate. Interestingly, as a spit forms off of a headland, the rate of sediment input to the spit itself emerges through feedbacks with the downdrift spit end, and in many cases faster spit progradation may coincide with reduced sediment input to the spit itself. Furthermore, as the depositional hook rests entirely beyond the maximum in alongshore sediment transport, this shoreline reach is susceptible to high-angle wave instability throughout and, as a result, spit depositional signals may be highly autogenic.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract The size and geometry of river channels play a central role in sediment transport and the character of deposition within alluvial basins across spatiotemporal scales spanning the initiation of grain movement to the filling of accommodation generated by subsidence. This study compares several different approaches to estimating palaeoflow depths from fluvial deposits in the early Palaeogene Willwood Formation of north‐west Wyoming, USA. Fluvial story heights (
n = 60) and mud plug thicknesses (n = 13) are statistically indistinguishable from one another and yield palaeoflow depth estimates of 4 to 6 m. The vertical relief on bar clinoforms (n = 112) yields smaller flow depths, by a factor ofca 0.3, with the exception that the largest bar clinoforms match story heights and mud plug estimates. This observation is consistent with modern river data sets that indicate unit bar clinoforms do not capture the reach‐mean bank‐full flow depths except in rare circumstances. Future studies should use story heights (i.e. compound bar deposits) and mud plugs to estimate bank‐full flow depths in alluvial strata. Additionally, the thickness of multi‐storied fluvial sandbodies (n = 102) and overbank cycles composed of paired crevasse splay and palaeosol deposits (n = 45) were compared. The two depositional units display statistically indistinguishable mean and median values. Building upon previous depositional models, these observations suggest basin rivers aggraded approximately one flow depth prior to major avulsion. This avulsion process generated widespread crevasse splay deposition across the floodplain. Once the main river channel stem was reestablished, overbank flooding and palaeosol development dominated floodplain settings. The depositional model implies river aggradation autogenically generated topography in the basin that was effectively filled during the subsequent avulsion. This constitutes a meso‐timescale (103–104 years) compensational pattern driven by morphodynamics that may account for the high completeness of fossil and palaeoclimate records recovered from the basin. -
more » « less
Sea-level rise, subsidence, and reduced fluvial sediment supply are causing river deltas to drown worldwide, affecting ecosystems and billions of people. Abrupt changes in river course, called avulsions, naturally nourish sinking land with sediment; however, they also create catastrophic flood hazards. Existing observations and models conflict on whether the occurrence of avulsions will change due to relative sea-level rise, hampering the ability to forecast delta response to global climate change. Here, we combined theory, numerical modeling, and field observations to develop a mechanistic framework to predict avulsion frequency on deltas with multiple self-formed lobes that scale with backwater hydrodynamics. Results show that avulsion frequency is controlled by the competition between relative sea-level rise and sediment supply that drives lobe progradation. We find that most large deltas are experiencing sufficiently low progradation rates such that relative sea-level rise enhances aggradation rates—accelerating avulsion frequency and associated hazards compared to preindustrial conditions. Some deltas may face even greater risk; if relative sea-level rise significantly outpaces sediment supply, then avulsion frequency is maximized, delta plains drown, and avulsion locations shift inland, posing new hazards to upstream communities. Results indicate that managed deltas can support more frequent engineered avulsions to recover sinking land; however, there is a threshold beyond which coastal land will be lost, and mitigation efforts should shift upstream.
