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Machine learning (ML) methods for causal inference have gained popularity due to their flexibility to predict the outcome model and the propensity score. In this article, we provide a within-group approach for ML-based causal inference methods in order to robustly estimate average treatment effects in multilevel studies when there is cluster-level unmeasured confounding. We focus on one particular ML-based causal inference method based on the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) with an ensemble learner called SuperLearner. Through our simulation studies, we observe that training TMLE within groups of similar clusters helps remove bias from cluster-level unmeasured confounders. Also, using within-group propensity scores estimated from fixed effects logistic regression increases the robustness of the proposed within-group TMLE method. Even if the propensity scores are partially misspecified, the within-group TMLE still produces robust ATE estimates due to double robustness with flexible modeling, unlike parametric-based inverse propensity weighting methods. We demonstrate our proposed methods and conduct sensitivity analyses against the number of groups and individual-level unmeasured confounding to evaluate the effect of taking an eighth-grade algebra course on math achievement in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.
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Scaffolding Simulations with Deep Learning for High-Dimensional Deconvolution
A common setting for scientific inference is the ability to sample from a high-fidelity forward model (simulation) without having an explicit probability density of the data. We propose a simulation-based maximum likelihood deconvolution approach in this setting called OMNIFOLD. Deep learning enables this approach to be naturally unbinned and (variable-, and) high-dimensional. In contrast to model parameter estimation, the goal of deconvolution is to remove detector distortions in order to enable a variety of down-stream inference tasks. Our approach is the deep learning generalization of the common Richardson-Lucy approach that is also called Iterative Bayesian Unfolding in particle physics. We show how OMNIFOLD can not only remove detector distortions, but it can also account for noise processes and acceptance effects.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2019786
- PAR ID:
- 10251785
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ICLR 2021 SimDL Workshop
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
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