We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II (false negative) testing errors. Our model also incorporates multiple test types and is able to distinguish between retesting and exclusion after testing. Our quantitative framework allows us to directly interpret testing results as a function of errors and biases. By applying our testing model to COVID-19 testing data and actual case data from specific jurisdictions, we are able to estimate and provide uncertainty quantification of indices that are crucial in a pandemic, such as disease prevalence and fatality ratios. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance’.
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Familywise Error Rate Control by Interactive Unmasking
We propose a method for multiple hypothesis testing with familywise error rate (FWER) control, called the i-FWER test. Most testing methods are predefined algorithms that do not allow modifications after observing the data. However, in practice, analysts tend to choose a promising algorithm after observing the data; unfortunately, this violates the validity of the conclusion. The i-FWER test allows much flexibility: a human (or a computer program acting on the human’s behalf) may adaptively guide the algorithm in a data-dependent manner. We prove that our test controls FWER if the analysts adhere to a particular protocol of masking and unmasking. We demonstrate via numerical experiments the power of our test under structured non-nulls, and then explore new forms of masking.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1945266
- PAR ID:
- 10251942
- Publisher / Repository:
- PMLR (JMLR W&CP)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of Machine Learning Research
- Volume:
- 119
- ISSN:
- 2640-3498
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2720-2729
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Location:
- International Conference on Machine Learning
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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