skip to main content

Explore Research Products in the NSF-PAR

Title: A Comparison of Ecological Memory of Lake Ice‐Off in Eight North‐Temperate Lakes
Abstract

Ice‐off dates on lakes are some of the longest phenological records in the field of ecology, and some of the best evidence of long‐term climatic change. However, there has been little investigation as to whether the date of ice‐off on a lake impacts spring and summer ecosystem dynamics. Here, I analyzed 274 years of long‐term data from eight north temperate lakes in two climate zones to address whether lakes have ecological memory of ice‐off in the subsequent summer. Five metrics were investigated: epilimnion temperatures, hypolimnion temperatures, hypolimnetic oxygen drawdown, water clarity, and spring primary productivity. The response of the metrics to ice‐off date were variable across latitude and lake type. The northern set of lakes stratified quickly following ice‐off, and early ice‐off years resulted in significantly warmer hypolimnetic temperatures. Oxygen depletion in the hypolimnion was not impacted by ice‐off date, likely because in late ice‐off years the lakes did not fully mix. In the southern lakes, ice‐off date was not correlated to the onset of stratification, with the latter being a more dominant control on hypolimnetic temperature and oxygen. The implications of these findings is that as ice‐off date trends earlier in many parts of the world, the lakes that will likely experience the largest changes in spring and summer ecosystem properties are the lakes that currently have the longest duration of lake ice. In considering a future with warmer winters, these results provide a starting point for predicting how lake ecosystem properties will change with earlier ice‐off.

  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1856224 2025982 1753854
NSF-PAR ID:
10445156
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Volume:
126
Issue:
6
ISSN:
2169-8953
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ( , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences)
    null (Ed.)
    Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ( , Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)
    Abstract

    Warming winters will reduce ice cover and change under‐ice conditions in temperate mountain lakes, where snow contributes most of winter cover on lakes. Snow‐dominated mountain lakes are abundant and highly susceptible to climate warming, yet we lack an understanding of how climate variation and local attributes influence winter processes. We investigated climatic and intrinsic controls on ice phenology, water temperature, and bottom‐water dissolved oxygen (DO) in 15 morphologically diverse lakes in the Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains of California, USA, using high‐frequency measurements from multiple (2–5) winters. We found that ice phenology was determined by winter climate variables (snowfall and air temperature) that influence ice‐off timing, whereas ice‐on timing was relatively invariant among years. Lake size and morphology mediated the effect of climate on lake temperature and DO dynamics in early and late winter. Rates of hypolimnetic DO decline were highest in small, shallow lakes, and were unrelated to water temperature. Temperature and oxygen dynamics were more variable in small lakes because heavy snowfall caused ice submergence, mixing, and DO replenishment that affected the entire water column. As the persistence of snow declines in temperate mountain regions, autumn, and spring climatic conditions are expected to gain importance in regulating lake ice phenology. Water temperature and DO will likely increase in most lakes during winter as snowpack declines, but morphological attributes such as lake size will determine the sensitivity of ice phenology and under‐ice processes to climate change.

     
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ( , Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)
    Abstract

    Lake water clarity, phytoplankton biomass, and hypolimnetic oxygen concentration are metrics of water quality that are highly degraded in eutrophic systems. Eutrophication is linked to legacy nutrients stored in catchment soils and in lake sediments. Long lags in water quality improvement under scenarios of nutrient load reduction to lakes indicate an apparent ecosystem memory tied to the interactions between water biogeochemistry and lake sediment nutrients. To investigate how nutrient legacies and ecosystem memory control lake water quality dynamics, we coupled nutrient cycling and lake metabolism in a model to recreate long‐term water quality of a eutrophic lake (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA). We modeled long‐term recovery of water quality under scenarios of nutrient load reduction and found that the rates and patterns of water quality improvement depended on changes in phosphorus (P) and organic carbon storage in the water column and sediments. Through scenarios of water quality improvement, we showed that water quality variables have distinct phases of change determined by the turnover rates of storage pools—an initial and rapid water quality improvement due to water column flushing, followed by a much longer and slower improvement as sediment P pools were slowly reduced. Water clarity, phytoplankton biomass, and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen differed in their time responses. Water clarity and algal biomass improved within years of nutrient reductions, but hypolimnetic oxygen took decades to improve. Even with reduced catchment loading, recovery of Lake Mendota to a mesotrophic state may require decades due to nutrient legacies and long ecosystem memory.

     
    more » « less
  4. ; ( , Limnology and Oceanography)
    Abstract

    Reductions in ice cover duration and earlier ice breakup are two of the most prevalent responses to climate warming in lakes in recent decades. In dimictic lakes, the subsequent periods of spring mixing and summer stratification are both likely to change in response to these phenological changes in ice cover. Here, we used a modeling approach to simulate the effect of changes in latitude on long‐term trends in duration of ice cover, spring mixing, and summer stratification by “moving” a well‐studied lake across a range of latitudes in North America (35.2°N to 65.7°N). We found a changepoint relationship between the timing of ice breakup vs. spring mixing duration on 09 May. When ice breakup occurred before 09 May, which routinely occurred at latitudes < 47°N, spring mixing was longer and more variable; when ice breakup occurred after 09 May at latitudes > 47°N, spring mixing averaged 1 day with low variability. In contrast, the duration of summer stratification showed a relatively slower rate of increase when ice breakup occurred before 09 May (< 47°N) compared to a 109% faster rate of increase when ice breakup was after 09 May (> 47°N). Projected earlier ice breakup can result in important nonlinear changes in the relative duration of spring mixing and summer stratification, which can lead to mixing regime shifts that influence the severity of oxygen depletion differentially across latitudes.

     
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ( , Limnology and Oceanography)
    Abstract

    Lake surface temperatures are warming in many regions and have the potential to alter seasonal thermal stratification. However, the effects of climate change on thermal stratification can be difficult to characterize because trends in thermal stratification can be regulated by changes in multiple climate variables and other characteristics, such as water clarity. Here, we use long‐term (1993–2017) data from near‐pristine Crater Lake (Oregon) to understand long‐term changes in the depth and strength of summer stratification, measured by the center of buoyancy and Schmidt Stability, respectively. The depth of stratification has shoaled significantly (2.4 m decade−1), while stratification strength exhibited no long‐term trend. Empirical observations and modeling scenarios demonstrate that atmospheric stilling at Crater Lake is associated with the 25‐year shoaling trend as spring wind speeds declined over the observation period. While summer lake surface water and air temperatures warmed during the study period, spring air temperatures were variable and correlated with summer Schmidt Stability. Our results indicate that warmer spring air temperature resulted in earlier onset of stratification and stronger summer stratification. The observed shoaling of stratification depth at Crater Lake may have important ecological consequences, especially for non‐motile primary producers who can become constrained within a thinner epilimnion and exposed to higher solar radiation and reduced upwelling of nutrients. Driven by climate changes, many large lakes may be experiencing similar trends in seasonal stratification.

     
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email