Summer temperatures across eastern North America (hereafter East) will soon reach a level consistently above any observation experienced during the instrumental period. Increasing temperatures will have negative impacts on natural (e.g., water, plant and animal communities) and human (e.g., health, infrastructure, economies) systems upon which the large and growing centres of human population across the region depend. Within the network of Northern Hemisphere tree‐ring temperature proxy records, one of the most obvious geographic holes is the East, where few temperature‐sensitive proxies exist. Here we present the first steps towards building a network of temperature‐sensitive proxy records across the East using blue light intensity (BI) methods applied to the tree rings of multiple temperature sensitive tree species situated from North Carolina to Maine, USA. Our overall objective is to report on the most viable species for BI analysis across different regions of the East (e.g., Southeast US, Midwest US, Northeast US/Canadian Maritimes) by exploring temporal (e.g., since ca. 1900) and spatial relationships between instrumental temperatures and BI metrics. We found BI to be a strong predictor of March–October mean air temperature (
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10273093
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Volume:
- 376
- Issue:
- 1816
- ISSN:
- 0962-8436
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 20190718
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract R 2= 0.61) across the Northeast US/eastern Canada, and Sep‐Oct maximum air temperature (R 2= 0.42) across the Southeast US. Of all species tested,Tsuga canadensis andPicea rubens contained the strongest BI temperature signal. Adding more BI sites from these and potentially other species, as well as inclusion of other temperature proxies (e.g., ring widths) will allow for the development of a skilful broad‐scale and long‐term temperature field reconstruction across the East. -
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Abstract Archaeologists increasingly use large radiocarbon databases to model prehistoric human demography (also termed paleo-demography). Numerous independent projects, funded over the past decade, have assembled such databases from multiple regions of the world. These data provide unprecedented potential for comparative research on human population ecology and the evolution of social-ecological systems across the Earth. However, these databases have been developed using different sample selection criteria, which has resulted in interoperability issues for global-scale, comparative paleo-demographic research and integration with paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental data. We present a synthetic, global-scale archaeological radiocarbon database composed of 180,070 radiocarbon dates that have been cleaned according to a standardized sample selection criteria. This database increases the reusability of archaeological radiocarbon data and streamlines quality control assessments for various types of paleo-demographic research. As part of an assessment of data quality, we conduct two analyses of sampling bias in the global database at multiple scales. This database is ideal for paleo-demographic research focused on dates-as-data, bayesian modeling, or summed probability distribution methodologies.
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Archaeologists now routinely use summed radiocarbon dates as a measure of past population size, yet few have coupled these measures to theoretical expectations about social organization. To help move the ‘dates as data’ approach from description to explanation, this paper proposes a new integrative theory and method for quan- titative analyses of radiocarbon summed probability distributions (SPDs) in space. We present this new approach to ‘SPDs in space’ with a case study of 3571 geo-referenced radiocarbon dates from Wyoming, USA. We develop a SPD for the Holocene in Wyoming, then analyze the spatial distribution of the SPD as a function of time using a standard nearest-neighbor statistic. We compare population growth and decline throughout the Holocene with expectations for different Ideal Distribution Models from population ecology that predict the relationship be- tween habitat quality and population density. Results suggest that populations in Wyoming were initially clustered and then became increasingly dispersed through the course of the Holocene. These results suggest that Allee-like benefits to aggregation, rather than ideal free-driven dispersion patterns, explain settlement decisions in response to growing populations. Our approach is a first step in constructing a method and theory for de- scribing relationships between social organization and population growth trends derived from archaeological radiocarbon time-series.more » « less
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Abstract Objectives The North American archaeological record supports a Holocene origin of Arctic Indigenous peoples. Although the Paleo‐Inuit were present for millennia, archaeological and genetic studies suggest that modern peoples descend from a second, more recent tradition known as the Neo‐Inuit. Origins of the Neo‐Inuit and their relations to the earlier and later Indigenous peoples are an area of active study. Here, we genetically analyze the maternal lineages present at Nuvuk, once the northernmost community in Alaska and located in a region identified as a possible origin point of the Neo‐Inuit Thule. The cemetery at Nuvuk contains human remains representing a nearly one thousand year uninterrupted occupation from early Thule to post‐contact Iñupiat.
Materials and methods We selected 44 individuals from Nuvuk with calibrated dates between 981 AD and 1885 AD for molecular analysis. We amplified and sequenced the hypervariable segment I of the mitogenome. We compared the Nuvuk data with previously published sequences from 68 modern and ancient communities from across Asia and North America. Phylogeographic analyses suggest possible scenarios of Holocene Arctic and sub‐Arctic population movements.
Results We successfully retrieved sequence data from 39 individuals. Haplogroup frequencies in Nuvuk were typed as 66.7% A2b1, 25.6% A2a, and 7.7% D4b1a2a1a. These results suggest that the population at Nuvuk was closest to the ancient Thule and modern Inuit of Canada, and to the Siberian Naukan people. We confirm that haplogroups A2a, A2b1, D2a, and D4b1a2a1a appear at high frequency in Arctic and sub‐Arctic populations of North America and Chukotka. Sister clades D2b and D4b1a2a1b are present in Asian and Eastern European populations.
Discussion The ancient mitochondrial sequences from Nuvuk confirm the link between the North Slope and the Thule who later spread east, and the maternal discontinuity between the Neo‐Inuit and Paleo‐Inuit. We suggest haplogroups A2a, A2b, and D4b1a2a1a are linked to the ancestors of the Thule in eastern Beringia, whereas the D2 and D4b1a2a1 clades appear to have Asian Holocene origins. Further Siberian and Alaskan genomes are necessary to clarify these population migrations beyond a simple two‐wave scenario of Neo‐Inuit and Paleo‐Inuit.
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The relative importance of climate and humans in the disappearance of the Malagasy megafauna remains under debate. Data from southwestern Madagascar imply aridification contributed substantially to the late Holocene decline of the megafauna (the Aridification Hypothesis). Evidence for aridification includes carbon isotopes from tree rings, lacustrine charcoal concentrations and pollen assemblages, and changes in fossil vertebrate assemblages indicative of a local loss of pluvial conditions. In contrast, speleothem records from northwestern Madagascar suggest that megafaunal decline and habitat change resulted primarily from human activity including agropastoralism (the Subsistence Shift Hypothesis). Could there have been contrasting mechanisms of decline in different parts of Madagascar? Or are we lacking the precisely dated, high resolution records needed to fully understand the complex processes behind megafaunal decline? Reconciling these contrasting hypotheses requires additional climate records from southwestern Madagascar. We recovered a stalagmite (AF2) from Asafora Cave in the spiny thicket ecoregion, ~10 km from the southwest coast and just southeast of the Velondriake Marine Reserve. U-series and 14C dating of samples taken from the core of this stalagmite provide a highly precise chronology of the changes in hydroclimate and vegetation in this region over the past 3000 years. Speleothem stable oxygen and carbon isotope analyses provide insight into past rainfall variability and vegetation changes respectively. We compare these records with those for a stalagmite (AB2) from Anjohibe Cave in northwestern Madagascar. Lastly, odds ratio analyses of radiocarbon dates for extinct and extant subfossils allow us to describe and compare the temporal trajectories of megafaunal decline in the southwest and the northwest. Combined, these analyses allow us to test the Aridification Hypothesis for megafaunal extinction. The trajectories of megafaunal decline differed in northwestern and southwestern Madagascar. In the southwest, unlike the northwest, there is no evidence of decoupling of speleothem stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. Instead, habitat changes in the southwest were largely related to variation in hydroclimate (including a prolonged drought). The megafaunal collapse here occurred in tandem with the drought, and agropastoralism likely contributed to that demise only after the megafauna had already suffered drought-related population reduction. Our results offer some support for the Aridification Hypothesis, but with three caveats: first, that there was no island-wide aridification; second, that aridification likely impacted megafaunal decline only in the driest parts of Madagascar; and third, that aridification was not the sole factor promotingmegafaunal decline even in the dry southwest. A number of megafaunal species survived the prolonged drought of the first millennium, and then likely succumbed to the activities of agropastoralists.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0718
